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产业园区项目有投资周期长，投资资金量大的特点，在当前防风险、稳杠杆、强化金融监管的背景下，使得以土地出售和银行信贷为主的传统融资模式受限。本文认为，通过引入“公募 REITs”这一创新的金融手段，可以为产业园的发展开辟一条新的融资渠道。可以预见未来会有更多成熟的产业园区开发商通过发行REITs来回笼资金，进行新的投资。对REITs的价值的评估贯穿于REITs的全生命周期，有利于帮助投资者防范风险，降低信息不对称，有助于我国公募REITs市场健康发展，因此对REITs合理估值的需求会随着产业园公募REITs发行增多而增多。

为此，本文聚焦产业园公募REITs估值研究，首先分析了REITs的估值逻辑和国外常用的几种评估方法，认为缺乏适用基础，而从估值逻辑和可行性上分析收益法仍目前较为适用的方法，并在此基础上分析了收益法重要经济参数的不确定性。然后，构建了蒙特卡洛模拟改进收益法的模型，量化了评估中的参数的不确定性，并分析了其适用性。最后，利用该模型对建信中关村产业园公募REITs这一案例的价值进行评估，通过蒙特卡洛模拟优化后的收益法得到了一个比较有弹性和科学的估价范围。

本文的研究结果表明：①蒙特卡洛模拟使得评估值由点估计转为区间估计，可以提供更多参考信息；②提高影响租金收入的主要因素的预测合理性，能提升评估值的准确性。综上，通过对建信中关村产业园公募REITs的价值研究，本文能够更好地判断当前REITs价格的合理性，并对该项目的将来的升值潜力进行评估，为后续的其它公募 REITs产品的发行和上市提供参考。

The traditional financing methods of a property sale and bank credit are constrained in the context of risk mitigation, leverage stabilization, and financial supervision. This study proposes that the introduction of "public REITs," an innovative financial instrument, can create a new financing channel for industrial park development. It is expected that more experienced industrial park developers may issue REITs in the future to recover investment costs and construct new ones. The assessment of the value of REITs over the whole life cycle of REITs is beneficial to help investors avoid risks, decrease information asymmetry, and contribute to the healthy development of China's public REITs market, therefore the demand for appropriate valuation of REITs will rise as more public REITs in industrial parks are issued.

As a result, the research on public REIT valuations in industrial parks is the main topic of this essay. First, it examines numerous widely utilized evaluation techniques worldwide as well as the logic behind REIT value. According to valuation logic and feasibility, it is thought that there is a lack of an applicable basis, and the income technique is still currently a somewhat relevant approach. This is used to examine the degree of uncertainty surrounding key economic metrics used in the income approach. The income method was then improved, the evaluation's parameter uncertainty was measured, and their application was examined using a Monte Carlo simulation model. Finally, the Monte Carlo simulation optimized income approach was used to evaluate the value of the case of public REITs in Jianxin Zhongguancun Industrial Park. This method provided a fairly elastic and accurate evaluation range.

The results show that (i) Monte Carlo simulation makes the valuation value change from point estimation to interval estimation, which can provide more reference information; and (ii) improving the reasonableness of the prediction of the main factors affecting rental income can improve the accuracy of the valuation value. In summary, by studying the value of the public REITs of Jianxin Zhongguancun Industrial Park, this paper can better assess the reasonableness of the current REITs' prices and evaluate the future appreciation potential of the project, which can provide reference for the subsequent issuance and listing of other public REITs products.