国际经济与贸易学院知识库

经济全球化的不断发展推动着全球价值链分工的深化，但在这一分工过程中国家间的收益分配不均使得现有国际分工格局难以维系。对于中国而言，参与全球价值链虽然能获得一定的贸易利得和知识溢出，但由于技术水平等，在收益分配格局中总体处于不利地位，中国急需实现制造业价值链升级，以规避被发达国家“低端锁定”甚至“挤出”的风险。随着 RCEP 贸易协定的签署，中国能否利用地缘和政策优势，借助共建全新的东亚区域价值链的机遇，在帮助解决东亚国家的发展需求、促进国际经济结构的再平衡的同时，以区域价值链枢纽国身份继续参与全球价值链体系，实现制造业的价值链升级，是挑战和机遇并存的问题。基于此背景，本文做了以下几方面研究：
首先，根据OECD官方于2021年公布的投入产出表数据，利用WWZ总贸易核算框架，将国家间的行业进出口数据进行分解，通过计算价值链地位指数、上游供给依赖和最终需求依赖指数等，从中国制造业参与共建东亚区域价值链的现实基础和路径选择两方面进行分析。结果显示，域内国家尤其是日本、越南等国家对东亚地区的供给和市场的依赖程度显著增强，在前后向联系方面表现出十分明显的内向化特征，东亚国家对制造业区城价值链的共建表现出迫切需求。而我国制造业在东亚范围内产业规模优势明显、对区域内高附加值环节掌控能力较强、基本满足东亚区域价值链内其他国家的生产需求。其中，金属业和运输制造业不仅区域内部生产和需求联系紧密，而且我国在比较优势和价值链地位上表现优异，基本具备成为区域价值链产业枢纽国和主导国的条件。其次，结合文章结论和相关实际，提出具体的建议：合理进行价值链布局，创造区域共赢发展局面、充分发挥我国超大市场规模优势、加快培育中国为主导下的区域价值链分工体系、加大对制造业高新技术企业的支持力度等。

The continuous development of economic globalization promotes the deepening of the division of labor in the global value chain, but the uneven distribution of income among countries in this process of division of labor makes the existing international division of labor difficult to maintain. For China, participating in the global value chain can obtain certain trade gains and knowledge spillovers, but due to the level of technology, it is in a disadvantageous position in the income distribution pattern as a whole, and faces the risk of being "locked in" or even "squeezed out" by developed countries. China's manufacturing development needs to realize the upgrading of the value chain. With the signing of the RCEP trade agreement, whether China can take advantage of its geographical and policy advantages and take advantage of the opportunity to jointly build a new regional value chain in East Asia, while helping to solve the development needs of East Asian countries and promote the rebalancing of the international economic structure, continue to participate in the global value chain system as a regional value chain hub country, and realize the upgrading of the manufacturing value chain is a question of both challenges and opportunities. Based on this background, this paper has done the following research:
First of all, with the help of the WWZ total trade accounting framework, the input-output data of the latest version of national industries published by the OECD in 2021 will be decomposed, and the indicators such as the degree of dependence of countries on the regional value chain and the status index will be calculated, and the analysis will be made from two aspects: the degree of relevance of East Asian countries within and outside the East Asian region and the path choice of China's participation in the joint construction of the regional value chain. The results show that the countries in the region, especially Japan, Vietnam and other countries, have significantly increased their dependence on the supply and market of East Asia, showing a very obvious inward characteristic in terms of forward and backward linkages, and East Asian countries have shown an urgent need for the co-construction of the value chain of manufacturing regions. However, China's manufacturing industry has obvious advantages in industrial scale in East Asia, strong control over high value-added links in the region, and can initially meet the supply demand of other countries in East Asia. At the same time, some segments of the industry have obvious competitive advantages, and basically have the conditions to become the hub and leading country of regional value chain industry. Secondly, based on the conclusion of the article, this paper puts forward some feasible policies for the establishment of industry, which are to adhere to the principle of "desalinating politics", reasonably carry out the layout of the value chain, give full play to the advantages of China's super-large market scale, accelerate the cultivation of the regional value chain division system led by China, and increase the support for manufacturing high-tech enterprises.