Institutional Repository of School of Statistics
作者 | 滕耀萱 |
姓名汉语拼音 | Teng Yaoxuan |
学号 | 2020000003054 |
培养单位 | 兰州财经大学 |
电话 | 18152140949 |
电子邮件 | vic_159753@163.com |
入学年份 | 2020-9 |
学位类别 | 专业硕士 |
培养级别 | 硕士研究生 |
一级学科名称 | 应用统计 |
学科代码 | 0252 |
第一导师姓名 | 黄恒君 |
第一导师姓名汉语拼音 | Huang Hengjun |
第一导师单位 | 兰州财经大学 |
第一导师职称 | 教授 |
题名 | 黄河流域城乡融合水平测度及区域差异研究 |
英文题名 | Study on Measurement and Regional Differences of Urban-Rural Integration Level in the Yellow River Basin |
关键词 | 城乡融合 黄河流域 区域差异 收敛性分析 |
外文关键词 | Urban-rural integration ; Yellow River Basin ; Regional differences ; Convergence analysis |
摘要 | 城乡融合发展是破解当前我国经济社会主要矛盾,实现经济社会高质量发展和中国式现代化的重大战略之一,黄河流域城乡融合发展是战略部署取得突破进展的关键。从建国初期开始,我国城乡关系先后经历了城乡对立、城乡统筹和城乡一体化阶段,工业化和城镇化的快速发展使得城乡关系日益紧密,但目前我国的城乡发展仍然存在明显差距。在迈入第二个百年奋斗目标新征程中,中共中央强调以“城乡融合发展”为核心,推进乡村振兴和新型城镇化“双轮驱动”战略的实施,从而构建工农互助、城乡互补、共同繁荣的新型城乡关系。黄河流域是我国多民族聚集地,由于历史、自然条件等原因,经济发展相对落后,城市化进程相对缓慢,推进黄河流域城乡全面融合是实现黄河流域经济高质量发展的重大举措。另外,流域内各地区发展差距明显,城乡二元结构问题突出,作为生态安全和经济高质量发展的重大战略区域,走好城乡融合道路对我国乡村全面振兴具有示范作用。因此,本文基于城乡融合发展的内涵,分别从经济发展、社会生活和生态环境三个方面,拓展构建黄河流域市域层面的城乡融合水平的评价指标体系。以2000-2020年黄河流域各地市数据为样本,展开市域尺度城乡融合水平的测度。采用Dagum基尼系数分解、核密度估计方法探讨黄河流域地区差异特征和动态演变规律。最后,建立空间计量模型,对流域的整体、上中下游地区间进行比较分析,讨论各区域城乡融合水平差异的空间收敛效应。 研究结果发现:(1)2000-2020年黄河流域城乡融合发展水平总体呈现上升趋势,流域内城乡融合水平不断提高。其中,下游地区的城乡融合水平高于全域水平,中上游地区城乡融合水平低于全域水平。同时黄河流域城乡融合空间分布的集聚特征明显,融合水平较高的地区集中分布在下游的山东和河南,融合水平较低的地区点状分布在甘肃、宁夏等上游地区,整体表现出“东高西低”的空间格局;(2)黄河流域城乡融合发展水平的区域总体差异呈现上升趋势,区域间差异是其主要的来源。其中,下游与中上游的差距较大,并且出现扩大的趋势,而区域内差异则表现出下游>中游>上游的分布格局。同时,经济发展和社会生活子系统的区域差异在下降,而生态环境差异的趋势不明显,维持在较低水平,并且区域间的差异也是各子系统差异的主要来源;(3)黄河流域城乡融合发展水平的动态演进特征差异较为明显,各区域都有明显的极化现象,特别是上中游地区的密度曲线出现双峰,呈现出两极分化的现象,但随着时间推移密度曲线逐渐由双峰演变为单峰形态,且观测后期曲线主峰宽度增加,域内各城市城乡融合水平的绝对差异有所增大;(4)黄河流域城乡融合发展水平具有明显的空间收敛特征。黄河流域及下游地区不存在σ收敛,而上中游地区存在较为明显的σ收敛趋势。同时,黄河流域及各区域均存在绝对β收敛和条件β收敛。其中,中游地区城乡融合水平的绝对β收敛速度最快,而下游地区的绝对β收敛速度最慢。在加入控制变量后的条件β收敛中,各区域的收敛速度出现明显的提高,但下游地区的收敛速度仍然较慢。此外,政府支持与城市化水平对黄河流域的城乡融合水平差异的收敛具有显著影响,并出现区域异质性。基于上述研究结论,本文尝试讨论促进区域城乡协调发展的政策建议。一方面进入新的发展阶段,黄河流域还应积极促进区域的协调发展,制定差异化的发展战略,缩小区域间的差异。另一方面充分激活城乡空间流通中的各类要素,实现城乡要素优化组合,推进农村地区产业结构转型升级,有效提升黄河流域城乡融合发展水平。 本文可能的边际贡献主要有:(1)考虑黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展战略要义和其生态、经济、社会发展实际,建立了多维度黄河流域城乡融合指标体系,并在此基础上形成了一套包含水平测度、特征分析、差异来源分解等内容的客观评价体系,为有效评估黄河流域城乡融合发展水平提供了科学依据;(2)考虑到黄河流域情况复杂,长期处于区域发展失衡的状况,基于空间收敛理论对流域内城乡融合水平差异的收敛情况进行分析,进一步探究了阻碍区域城乡融合水平差异收敛的因素,为推进我国黄河流域新型城镇化建设和高质量发展前瞻性政策的制定提供了指导。 |
英文摘要 | The integrated development of urban and rural areas is one of the major strategies to resolve the current major contradictions in China's society, and to achieve high-quality development and Chinese-style modernization. Meanwhile, it is also the key to achieving breakthrough progress in the strategic development. After the foundation of the PR China, the relationship of urban-rural in China has gone through several stages, which gradually evolving from the urban-rural dichotomy to the coadjutant stage of urban-rural coordination and urban-rural unity. Entering a new period of development, against the background of the second 100-year goal, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) emphasized on regarding “urban-rural integration” as a key to development. Promoting the "two-wheel drive" strategy of rural revitalization and new urbanization to be implemented, and building a new kind of urban-rural relationship in which workers and peasants help each other, complement each other and prosper together. The Yellow River Basin is a multi-ethnic gathering place in China, and due to historical and natural conditions, economic development is relatively backward and urbanization is relatively slow. Promoting comprehensive urban and rural integration in the Yellow River Basin is a major initiative to achieve high-quality economic development in the Yellow River Basin. Besides, the development gap between the various regions in the basin is obvious, and the problem of urban-rural dual structure is prominent. As a major strategic area for ecological security and high-quality economic development, taking the road of good urban-rural integration has a demonstration effect on the comprehensive revitalization of China's countryside. Based on the content of urban-rural integration, this paper constructs an index system of urban-rural integration in the Yellow River Basin to evaluate the municipal level in economy, society and ecological environment respectively. Taking the data of cities in Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020 as a sample, we assessed the extent of urban-rural integration from a municipal perspective. Moreover, the study discussed the features of regional variation and dynamic evolutionary patterns in the Yellow River Basin with Dagum-Gini coefficient decomposition and kernel density estimation. Finally, using spatial econometric model to conduct a comparative analysis between the whole catchment and the upstream, midstream and downstream regions, and to discuss the spatial convergence effects of the differences in integration levels between urban and rural areas. The research results show that: (1) The urban-rural integration advancement in Yellow River Basin has achieved remarkable results, and the level of integration in all basin has shown a growth trend from 2000 to 2020. In this context, the degree of urban-rural integration in the lower river area is the highest, even above the average of the whole basin. The degree of urban-rural integration in the middle and upper river area is lower than in the total level. At the same time, the spatial distribution of urban-rural integration in Yellow River Basin has obvious agglomeration characteristic. The cities with higher integration level are concentrated in Shandong Province and Henan Province, while the lower integration level is distributed in Gansu Province and Ningxia Self-governing region sporadically. It showed the spatial pattern of "high east, low west". (2) Overall, regional differences of urban-rural integration in the Yellow River Basin shows growth trend totally, with interregional differences being the main cause. Among them, the gap between downstream and upstream is larger and tends to increase, while intraregional differences show the following distribution pattern: downstream > midstream > upstream. Meanwhile, regional differences in the subsystems of economic development and social life are decreasing, while the trend in environmental differences is less pronounced and remains at low levels, with interregional differences being an important source of variation in these subsystems as well. (3) The dynamic evolutionary difference of urban-rural integration in the Yellow River basin becomes more clear, with obvious polarization in all regions, especially in the upper and middle reaches, where the density curve appears as a double peak, showing polarization but gradually turning into a single peak over time, with the width of the main peak increasing and the absolute difference in the level of urban-rural integration between the cities in the basin growing. (4) The level of urban-rural integration in the Yellow River Basin exhibits clear characteristics of spatial convergence. There is no σ-convergence in the whole basin and downstream, while a clearer trend towards σ-convergence can be observed in both upper area and middle area. Meanwhile, there exists significant β-convergence and conditional β-convergence both in the Yellow River Basin and each region. Absolute β-convergence is faster in the middle area and slower in the lower area. For conditional β-convergence, the speed of convergence increased to a different extent in each region after adding control variables, and the speed of convergence in the lower area remains slower. Besides, there is a significant impact on the convergence trend of urban-rural integration in the Yellow River Basin through government support and urbanization building, and it expresses the regional heterogeneity. The development of urban-rural integration is a very effective method to promote rural revitalization. At the present, it is necessary to promote regional coordinated development actively and design differentiated development responses in Yellow River Basin which can reduce the gaps among regions. What’s more, it should fully activate all kinds of urban-rural spatial elements, and realize the optimal combination of urban and rural elements which can raise the level of urban-rural integrated in the Yellow River Basin efficiently, and achieves the goal of common prosperity for all people in accordance with the Plan at last. The possible marginal contributions of this paper are: (1) Considering the strategic importance of ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin, and actual situation of its natural, economic and social development, a multi-dimensional urban-rural integration index system was established. On this basis, an objective evaluation system containing level measurement, feature analysis and decomposition of sources of differences was formed, which provides a scientific references for effectively assessing the level of urban-rural integration development in the Yellow River Basin; (2) Considering the complex situation of the Yellow River Basin and its long-term imbalance in regional development, it is necessary to analyze the convergence of urban-rural integration differences in the basin based on the theory of spatial convergence. Moreover, further investigate the factors that hinder the convergence of regional urban-rural integration differences, and provide a basis for promoting the construction of new urbanization and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin in China. |
学位类型 | 硕士 |
答辩日期 | 2023-05-20 |
学位授予地点 | 甘肃省兰州市 |
语种 | 中文 |
论文总页数 | 68 |
参考文献总数 | 46 |
馆藏号 | 0005022 |
保密级别 | 公开 |
中图分类号 | C8/348 |
文献类型 | 学位论文 |
条目标识符 | http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/34403 |
专题 | 统计与数据科学学院 |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | 滕耀萱. 黄河流域城乡融合水平测度及区域差异研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2023. |
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