国际经济与贸易学院知识库

2020年11月，习近平总书记在中央全面依法治国工作会议上指出：人类社会处于一个特殊历史时期，世界经济陷入深度衰退，全球产业链，供应链受到冲击，出现了单边主义和保护主义、霸凌行径抬头，经济全球化遇到逆流，使世界经济的风险与不确定性更加严重。面对世界形势的深刻变化，我国亟需找到一条路径维护经济平稳发展，抓住机遇发展我国产业链、供应链。2020年8月，习近平总书记在主持召开经济社会领域专家座谈会时指出，“以畅通国民经济循环为主构建新发展格局，推动形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际“双循环”相互促进的新发展格局，是重塑我国国际合作和竞争新优势的战略抉择”。由此可以看出，新发展格局构建的重要目的之一就是重塑我国国际合作和竞争新优势。通过梳理文献，本文将“畅通国民经济循环为主构建新发展格局”落脚为“双循环”发展水平的测度，将“重塑我国国际合作和竞争新优势”落脚为国家价值链分工参与度的测度，将全球价值链分工（GVC）与国内价值链分工（NVC）结合为统一分析框架，基于NVC和GVC统一框架下测算制造业价值链分工参与度，从实证角度检验双循环新发展格局对价值链分工参与度提升的促进效应。

首先，梳理新发展格局与重塑我国合作竞争新优势之间的理论逻辑，搭建理论框架，回答为什么要重塑合作竞争新格局，重塑合作竞争新优势为什么必须依托新发展格局，新发展格局下如何培育合作竞争新优势三个问题；其次，编制2012年中国各区域嵌入国际的投入产出表，编写操作代码，对制造业价值链分工参与度进行测算；最后，建立GVC与外循环、NVC与内循环、NGVC与内外循环有效联动的计量分析框架，对“双循环”促进价值链提升这一理论逻辑进行实证检验，探寻“双循环”提升价值链分工参与度的路径和效应。研究发现：我国目前制造业发展普遍存在“本地偏好”效应，且中西部地区更为明显；一味地依靠国际大循环，造成我国制造业“低端锁定”的现状；“双循环”新发展格局，以国内大循环为主，国内国际双循环相互促进能够促进制造业国家价值链分工参与度的提高，促进价值链摆脱低端锁定，向中高端攀升。

In November 2020, General Secretary Xi Jinping pointed out at the Central Work Conference on the Comprehensive Rule of Law that: human society is in a special historical period, the world economy is in deep recession, the global industrial chain, supply chains have been hit, unilateralism and protectionism, the rise of bullying practices, economic globalization has encountered a counter-current, making the risks and uncertainties of the world economy more serious. In the face of profound changes in the world situation, China urgently needs to find a path to maintain stable economic development and seize the opportunity to develop its industrial and supply chains. This is a strategic choice to reshape China's new advantages in international cooperation and competition". It can be seen that one of the important objectives of the new development pattern is to reshape China's new advantages in international cooperation and competition. By combing through the literature, this paper has anchored "building a new development pattern based on the smooth circulation of the national economy" in the measurement of the level of development of the "dual circulation", and "reshaping China's new advantages in international cooperation and competition "The new development pattern of the double-loop is measured in terms of the participation in the national value chain division of labour, and the global value chain division of labour (GVC) and the domestic value chain division of labour (NVC) are combined into a unified analysis framework, and the participation in the manufacturing value chain division of labour is measured under the unified framework of NVC and GVC.

Firstly, we sort out the theoretical logic between the new development pattern and the reshaping of China's new competitive advantage in cooperation, build a theoretical framework, and answer three questions: why should the new competitive advantage in cooperation be reshaped, why must the reshaping of the new competitive advantage in cooperation rely on the new development pattern, and how to cultivate the new competitive advantage in cooperation under the new development pattern; secondly, we compile the input-output table of China's regions embedded in the international in 2012, prepare an operation code Finally, an econometric analysis framework was established to effectively link GVC with the external cycle, NVC with the internal cycle and NGVC with the internal and external cycles, to empirically test the theoretical logic of "dual circulation" promoting the upgrading of the value chain, and to explore how "dual circulation" can enhance the participation in the division of labour in the manufacturing industry. "The study finds that: the development of China's manufacturing industry is generally characterized by a high degree of participation in the value chain. The study finds that: there is a general "local preference" effect in China's current manufacturing development, and it is more obvious in the central and western regions; relying on the international circulation has caused the current situation of "low-end locking" in China's manufacturing industry; The new development pattern of "dual circulation", with the major domestic cycle and the domestic and international double-loop promoting each other, can promote the increase of participation in the division of labour in the national value chain of the manufacturing industry, and promote the value chain to get rid of the low-end lock and climb up to the middle and high end.