金融学院知识库

  随着“高投入、高能耗、高污染”发展模式与资源环境之间的矛盾逐步显现，我国发展面临环境污染、产能过剩和资源利用率低等一系列问题亟待解决。工业作为我国经济的重要组成部分，工业碳达峰是实现“双碳”目标的重要途径。与一般工业行业相比，重污染行业更容易导致环境污染，但环境污染往往具有外部性特征，单纯的道德约束难以明确环境责任归属与履责问题，因此如何推动重污染行业绿色转型发展是我国当下亟需解决的问题之一。2021年，我国在“十四五”规划中明确提出，要大力发展绿色金融，构建绿色发展政策体系。2022年，党的二十大报告进一步指出，要以高质量发展为主题，加快发展方式绿色转型，推进新型工业化发展。绿色信贷作为我国当前绿色金融体系的主要构成，能够引导市场资源向绿色产业倾斜，通过外部融资约束影响企业的经营决策，鼓励重污染行业进行绿色技术革新，减少污染排放来满足清洁生产标准。因此，在我国绿色信贷政策体系不断完善的背景下，研究绿色信贷如何对重污染行业绿色发展产生影响具有一定的现实意义。

  研究内容上，本文首先从理论上对绿色信贷影响重污染行业绿色发展的内在机理进行分析，并从路径和异质性角度作出假设。其次，以2004-2020年我国36个工业行业数据为样本，将样本划分为重污染行业与非重污染行业，以经济发展、资源利用、环境污染和环境治理为一级指标构建行业绿色发展水平测度体系，衡量我国重污染行业的绿色发展水平。以2012年原银监会颁布《绿色信贷指引》政策为准自然实验构建双重差分模型，对绿色信贷政策影响重污染行业绿色发展进行实证分析。研究结果显示：首先，基准回归结果显示，样本区间内绿色信贷政策显著提高了重污染行业绿色发展水平，并且该结论得到了一系列稳健性检验的支持。其次，通过异质性检验发现，绿色信贷对重污染行业绿色发展的政策效应在不同所有制结构及不同行业竞争程度下存在差异，但不会受到重污染行业技术密集程度的影响，即在国有企业主导、高垄断性质的行业中，绿色信贷政策对重污染行业绿色发展的促进效应更为明显。最后，通过机制检验发现，绿色信贷政策存在显著的中介效应，即技术创新效应和监督效应，且二者对重污染行业的绿色发展均呈正向的促进作用，技术创新效应贡献度相对更高，监督效应贡献度相对更低。本文从理论和实证出发，研究证实了绿色信贷政策能够有效推动重污染行业绿色发展，并对于绿色信贷政策的设计与落实提出了相关建议，不仅有助于加强对绿色信贷政策的经济效应和作用渠道的理解，也有助于把握新时代背景下的我国重污染行业的绿色转型路径。

  As the contradiction between the development model of "high input, high energy consumption and high pollution" and resources environment has gradually emerged, China's development is facing a series of problems such as environmental pollution, overcapacity, and low resource utilization, which urgently need to be solved. As an important component of China's economy, industrial carbon peaking is an important way to achieve the "double carbon" goal. Compared with general industrial industries, heavy pollution industries are more likely to cause environmental pollution, but environmental pollution is usually has external effects, and it is difficult to clarify the attribution and performance of environmental responsibility with simple moral constraints. Therefore, how to promote the green transformation and development of heavy pollution industries is one of the problems that need to be solved urgently in China. In 2021, China clearly proposed in the 14th Five Year Plan to vigorously develop green finance and build a green development policy system. In 2022, the report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China further pointed out that we should focus on high-quality development, accelerate the green transformation of development methods, and promote the development of new industrialization. Green credit, as the main component of China's current green financial system, can guide market resources towards green industries, influence business decisions through external financing constraints, encourage green technology innovation in heavily polluting industries, and reduce pollution emissions to meet cleaner production standards. Therefore, in the context of the continuous improvement of China's green credit policy system, studying the impact of green credit on the green development of heavy pollution industries has certain practical significance.

  In terms of research content, this paper first analyzes the mechanism and path of green credit affecting the green development of heavy pollution industries, and makes assumptions from the perspective of heterogeneity. Secondly, based on the data of 36 industrial industries in China from 2004 to 2020, the sample is divided into heavy pollution industries and non-heavy pollution industries, and the green development level measurement system is constructed with economic development, resource utilization, environmental pollution and environmental governance as the primary indicators to measure the green development level of China's heavy pollution industry. Based on the policy of Green Credit Guidelines issued by the former CBRC in 2012, a differences-in-differences model was constructed to empirically analyze the impact of green credit policies on the green development of heavily polluting industries. The research results show that: firstly, the benchmark regression results show that the green credit policy has significantly improved the green development level of heavy pollution industries in the sample range, and this conclusion is supported by a series of robustness tests. Secondly, through the heterogeneity test, it is found that the policy effect of green credit on the green development of heavy pollution industries is different under different ownership structures and different industrial competition levels, but will not be affected by the technology-intensive degree of heavy pollution industries, that is, in the industries dominated by state-owned enterprises and with high monopoly nature, the promotion effect of green credit policy on the green development of heavy pollution industries is more obvious. Finally, through the mechanism test, it is found that the green credit policy has a significant mediating effect, that is, technological innovation effect and supervision effect, and both of them have a positive role in promoting the green development of heavily polluting industries. The contribution of technological innovation effect is relatively higher, and the contribution of supervision effect is relatively lower. From the theoretical and empirical point of view, this paper confirms that the green credit policy can effectively promote the green development of the heavy pollution industry, and puts forward relevant suggestions for the design and implementation of the policy, which not only helps to strengthen the understanding of the economic effects and function channels of the green credit policy, but also helps to grasp the green transformation path of China's heavy pollution industry in the new era.