统计与数据科学学院知识库

黄河流域已成为我国雾霾治理的短板，鉴于雾霾污染物对人体健康、社会经济等各方面都有较大的负面影响，对该地区的雾霾污染研究具有较大的紧迫性和必要性。本文选取黄河流域60个城市作为研究对象，使用核密度估计法、Dagum基尼系数、随机森林等方法，对雾霾污染的时空演进、区域差异、影响因素等问题进行分析，得到如下结论：

雾霾浓度按下游、中游、上游的顺序逐级递减，考察期内雾霾浓度整体下降趋势明显，其中下游地区下降幅度较大，上游地区在考察后期雾霾浓度有上升趋势；流域整体两极分化趋势明显，但分化趋势在减弱；雾霾污染存在明显的空间正自相关关系，集聚特征明显，“高-高”型集聚主要集中在黄河中下游的山东、河南两省，“低-低”型集聚主要集中在黄河中上游地区的内蒙古、宁夏、甘肃、陕西等省份。

雾霾污染区域总体差异呈缩小趋势，与基期相比，考察期末总体基尼系数降幅达14.26%，区域间差异是区域差异的主要来源；中游地区的区域内差异最大，而上游地区的区域内差异最小；就变化趋势而言，中、下游地区的区域内差异呈波动上升趋势，而上游地区区域差异则呈缩小趋势。

雾霾污染影响因素重要度排序靠前的6个因素依次是人口密度、年均气温、人口规模、产业集聚水平、产业结构和技术水平；演进趋势方面，考察后期经济规模、财政支出、人均GDP等社会经济发展相关因素对雾霾浓度的影响显著增加，而能源消耗强度、产业集聚水平等反应黄河流域工业化程度的指标的影响力在下降；作用机理方面，人口集聚、能源消耗量增加、经济规模扩大等情况都将加剧雾霾污染问题。

Yellow River Basin has become a short board of haze control in China. Given that haze pollutants have a great negative impact on human health, social economy and other aspects, it is of great urgency and necessity to study haze pollution in this region. This paper selects 60 cities in the Yellow River Basin as research objects, uses kernel density estimation method, Dagum Gini coefficient, random forest and other methods to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution, regional differences and influencing factors of haze pollution, and draws the following conclusions:

Haze concentration decreased step by step in the order of downstream, midstream and upstream, and the overall decreasing trend of haze concentration was obvious during the investigation period, with a large decrease in the downstream region and a rising trend in the upstream region in the late period of the investigation. The trend of polarization in the whole basin is obvious, but the trend of polarization is weakening. Haze pollution has spatial positive autocorrelation and obvious agglomeration characteristics. "High-high" type agglomeration is mainly concentrated in Shandong and Henan provinces in the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River, while "low-low" type agglomeration is mainly concentrated in Inner Mongolia, Ningxia, Gansu and Shaanxi provinces in the middle and upper reaches of the Yellow River.

Compared with the base period, the overall Gini coefficient at the end of the study period decreased by 14.26%, and inter-regional differences were the main source of regional differences. The intra-regional difference in the middle reaches is the largest, while the intra-regional difference in the upper reaches is the smallest. In terms of the trend of change, the intra-regional differences in the middle and downstream areas showed an increasing trend, while the regional differences in the upstream areas showed a decreasing trend.

The top six influencing factors of haze pollution are population density, average annual temperature, population size, industrial agglomeration level, industrial structure and technical level. In terms of the evolution trend, the influence of social and economic development-related factors such as economic scale, fiscal expenditure and per capita GDP on smog concentration increased significantly in the later period, while the influence of energy consumption intensity, industrial agglomeration level and other indicators reflecting the degree of industrialization in the Yellow River Basin decreased. In terms of the mechanism of action, population agglomeration, increase in energy consumption and expansion of economic scale will aggravate the haze pollution problem.