统计与数据科学学院知识库

作为农业大国，我国始终将“三农”问题放在重要位置，在国家政策支持下，我国农业经济水平不断提高，粮食产量也得以稳步增长。而在粮食产量不断增长的同时，日益严重的资源浪费和生态破坏等问题也限制了粮食生产的可持续性。而“双碳”目标的提出则为我国粮食绿色、低碳、循环生产提供了内生动力，粮食作为我国农业生产的最主要作物，不仅具有碳源属性，更是具有强大的碳汇属性。减少粮食生产过程中的碳排放和面源污染、提升粮食生产系统的碳汇能力，既是对“绿水青山就是金山银山”理念的贯彻与实践，也是我国粮食生产领域“双碳”目标实现的路径选择与行动使然。

在此背景下，本文首先对粮食生产效率、粮食生产生态效率的相关文献进行梳理，并在考虑“双碳”目标的基础上进一步丰富完善粮食生产生态效率评价指标体系；其次，运用全局超效率EBM模型对我国31省市2006-2020年粮食生产生态效率进行测度，探究我国粮食生产生态效率的总体趋势与区域差异；再次，对粮食生产生态效率未达到有效省市的效率损失原因进行分析，同时，运用马尔科夫链分析法，测算不同时间跨度下我国粮食生产生态效率概率转移矩阵，探究我国粮食生产生态效率转移规律；最后，运用面板Tobit模型对粮食生产生态效率的影响因素进行分析。

通过研究得到以下结论：（1）从全国层面来看，我国粮食生产生态效率整体仍存在提升空间。（2）从三大粮食功能区来看，粮食主产区的生产要素投入配置较其他功能区更为合理，且在“十三五”期间我国农业绿色发展取得阶段性成果。（3）从省际层面来看，我国31省市粮食生产生态效率表现出不同的变化程度，且位于效率前沿面的地区多集中于粮食主产区、经济发达地区和环境保护较好的区域，粮食生产生态效率较低的省市主要集中于经济较为落后的地区。（4）从效率损失原因来看，效率未达到有效的各省份均存在不同程度的冗余和不足。从演进趋势来看，位于中低水平和中高水平这两个状态的省份粮食生产生态效率并不稳定，保持初始状态的概率较小，内部流动性较强。（5）从影响因素方面来看，不同影响因素对三大功能区粮食生产生态效率水平的影响方向和程度具有明显的差异特征，因此，提升三大功能区的粮食生产生态效率要因地制宜，对症下药。基于上述结论，本文从强化粮食生产要素高效配置、完善污染监测体系和相关政策工具设计、加强农业科学技术创新与推广、因地制宜全面提高粮食生产生态效率四个方面提出对策建议。

As a big agricultural country, China has always placed the "three rural issues" in an important position, and with the support of national policies, China's agricultural economic level has been continuously improved, and grain output has also been steadily increased. While food production is growing, increasing problems such as resource waste and ecological damage also limit the sustainability of food production. The proposal of the "dual carbon" goal provides endogenous impetus for the green, low-carbon and circular production of China's food, and food, as the most important crop in China's agricultural production, not only has carbon source attributes, but also has strong carbon sink attributes. Reducing carbon emissions and non-point source pollution in the food production process and improving the carbon sink capacity of the food production system are not only the implementation and practice of the concept of "green water and green mountains are gold and silver mountains", but also the path choice and action to achieve the "dual carbon" goal in the field of food production in China.

In this context, this paper first sorts out the relevant literature on food production efficiency and grain production ecological efficiency, and further enriches and improves the evaluation index system of food production ecological efficiency on the basis of considering the "dual carbon" goal. Secondly, the global super-efficiency EBM model was used to measure the ecological efficiency of grain production in 31 provinces and cities in China from 2006 to 2020, and the overall trend and regional differences of the ecological efficiency of grain production in China were explored. Thirdly, the reasons for the efficiency loss of grain production eco-efficiency not reaching the effective provinces and cities are analyzed, and at the same time, the Markov chain analysis method is used to measure the probability transfer matrix of China's grain production eco-efficiency under different time spans, and explore the law of eco-efficiency transfer of grain production in China. Finally, the panel Tobit model is used to analyze the influencing factors of eco-efficiency of food production.

Through the study, the following conclusions are obtained: (1) From the national level, there is still room for improvement in the overall ecological efficiency of China's food production. (2) From the perspective of the three major grain functional areas, the input allocation of production factors in the main grain-producing areas is more reasonable than that in other functional areas, and the green development of China's agriculture has achieved phased results during the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" period. (3) From the perspective of inter-provincial level, the ecological efficiency of grain production in 31 provinces and cities in China shows different degrees of change, and the areas at the forefront of efficiency are mostly concentrated in major grain-producing areas, economically developed areas and areas with better environmental protection, and provinces and cities with low ecological efficiency of food production are mainly concentrated in economically backward areas. (4) From the perspective of the reasons for efficiency loss, there are different degrees of redundancy and deficiencies in various provinces where the efficiency has not reached the effective level. From the perspective of evolutionary trends, the ecological efficiency of grain production in provinces located in the two states of medium and low level and medium and high level is not stable, the probability of maintaining the initial state is small, and the internal mobility is strong. (5) From the perspective of influencing factors, the direction and degree of influence of different influencing factors on the ecological efficiency level of food production in the three functional areas have obvious different characteristics, so to improve the ecological efficiency of food production in the three functional areas, it is necessary to adapt measures to local conditions and prescribe the right medicine. Based on the above conclusions, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions from four aspects: strengthening the efficient allocation of food production factors, improving the design of pollution monitoring system and related policy tools, strengthening agricultural science and technology innovation and promotion, and jointly improving the ecological efficiency of food production according to local conditions.