金融学院知识库

美国居民杠杆率过高造成房地产泡沫破裂并引发2008年全球金融危机，由此各国对于居民杠杆率的重视程度不断提高。近年来，我国居民杠杆呈现出不断上涨的趋势，根据国际清算银行数据显示，2008年我国居民杠杆率仅为17.9%，不及新兴市场经济体水平，但至2022年三季度，我国居民杠杆升到61.4%，远超新兴经济体的45.7%，并且接近发达经济体的70%。经历新冠疫情对国内经济的冲击，现阶段我国房地产行业遭遇寒冬，根据国家统计局数据显示，2022年房地产业增加值同比减少5.1%，在所有行业中降幅最大，而房地产行业同时关联着金融风险和居民杠杆。其一房地产行业的债务融资主要来源于商业银行体系，关联着我国金融系统的风险，其二居民购房资金大多通过按揭贷款获得，因此购房资金大多为居民杠杆资金。因此为了进一步实施稳房地产政策，就需对居民杠杆和金融风险的变量及如何在房地产等渠道传导途径进行研究。本文从居民杠杆角度对金融风险研究，可以为居民杠杆率调控政策的制定及金融风险的防范提供决策参考。

首先本文在对国内外文献进行梳理的基础上，探究居民杠杆影响金融风险的理论机制，并从房地产渠道和企业债务渠道研究居民杠杆对金融风险的传导途径，然后选取我国30个省份2005年到2021年的省级面板数据实证检验居民杠杆对金融风险的影响，发现居民杠杆与银行信贷风险呈“U”型关系，居民杠杆与资产价格风险呈正向关系，在区域异质性上东部地区居民杠杆对金融风险的敏感程度都要大于中西部，且具有更高的抗风险性。在验证居民杠杆通过不同渠道影响居民杠杆时，本文借鉴前人文献研究做法，利用中介效应模型对居民杠杆影响金融风险的房地产渠道和企业债务渠道分别验证，其中对银行信贷风险影响为部分中介效应，对资产价格风险中介效应不显著。最后本文提出了居民杠杆率监管要因地制宜，针对不同的经济发展现状采取降杠杆亦或稳杠杆政策，同时针对房地产的调控和企业债务的监督既要符合市场规律，也要适时利用政府做调控干预等政策建议。

The excessive leverage of US residents caused the bursting of the real estate bubble and triggered the global financial crisis in 2008, which led to the increasing importance of household leverage in various countries. In recent years, China's resident leverage has shown a rising trend, according to the Bank for International Settlements data show that in 2008, China's resident leverage ratio is only 17.9%, less than the level of emerging market economies, but by the third quarter of 2022, China's resident leverage rose to 61.4%, far more than 45.7% of emerging economies, and close to 70% of developed economies. Experiencing the impact of the new coronavirus epidemic on the domestic economy, China's real estate industry has suffered a bitter winter at this stage. According to the data of the National Bureau of Statistics, the added value of the real estate industry in 2022 decreased by 5.1% year-on-year, the largest decline in all industries, while the real estate industry is associated with financial risks and resident leverage. Firstly, the debt financing of the real estate industry mainly comes from the commercial banking system, which is related to the risks of China's financial system. Secondly, most of the residents' purchase funds are obtained through mortgage loans, so most of the purchase funds are residents' leveraged funds. Therefore, in order to further implement the stable real estate policy, it is necessary to study the variables of residents' leverage and financial risk and how to transmit them in real estate and other channels. This paper studies financial risk from the perspective of residents' leverage, which can provide decision-making reference for the formulation of residents' leverage ratio regulation policies and the prevention of financial risks.

First of all, on the basis of combing domestic and foreign literature, this paper explores the theoretical mechanism of the impact of household leverage on financial risk, and studies the transmission path of household leverage on financial risk from the real estate channel and corporate debt channel. Then, provincial panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2021 are selected to empirically test the impact of household leverage on financial risk. It is found that there is a U-shaped relationship between resident leverage and bank credit risk, and a positive relationship between resident leverage and asset price risk. In terms of regional heterogeneity, resident leverage in eastern China is more sensitive to financial risk than that in central and western China, and has higher risk resistance. When verifying that household leverage affects household leverage through different channels, this paper draws on previous literature research practices and uses the intermediary effect model to separately verify the real estate channel and corporate debt channel in which household leverage affects financial risk. Among them, the intermediary effect on bank credit risk is partial, while the intermediary effect on asset price risk is not significant. Finally, this paper puts forward that the supervision of residents' leverage ratio should be adapted to local conditions, and the policies of reducing or stabilizing leverage should be adopted according to different economic development conditions. Meanwhile, the regulation and control of real estate and the supervision of corporate debt should not only comply with market rules, but also make timely use of government regulation and intervention.