作者杜蔓云
姓名汉语拼音Du Manyun
学号2020000003046
培养单位兰州财经大学
电话18340091515
电子邮件1580364337@qq.com
入学年份2020-9
学位类别专业硕士
培养级别硕士研究生
一级学科名称应用统计
学科代码0252
第一导师姓名杨盛菁
第一导师姓名汉语拼音Yang Shengjing
第一导师单位兰州财经大学
第一导师职称教授
题名甘肃省老龄化和储蓄对经济增长的影响研究
英文题名Research on the Impact of Aging and Savings on Economic Growth in Gansu Province
关键词甘肃省 老龄化 储蓄 经济增长 面板模型
外文关键词Gansu Province ; Aging ; Saving ; Economic Growth ; Panel model
摘要

改革开放以来,我国凭借无限的劳动力供给以及高储蓄带来的高投资在经济体量和质量上实现了飞速发展。然而,“人口红利”的逐渐消失和“储蓄弊端论”的出现引发人们对于经济增长动力不足、经济增速下滑的担忧。甘肃省地处我国西北部,经济发展较为滞后,虽然进入老龄化时间较晚,但具有老龄化发展速度快、地区发展不均衡、未富先老等特点。

本文主要分析了甘肃省老龄化和储蓄对经济增长的影响。理论部分,基于大量文献梳理了甘肃省老龄化和储蓄对经济增长的作用机制;实证部分,利用2009—2020年甘肃省14个市的面板数据展开分析。主要结论如下:第一,老龄化不利于经济增长,储蓄增加有利于经济增长,且经济发展水平越高的地区,老龄化对经济增长的消极影响越小,而储蓄对经济增长的积极影响越大。第二,老龄化、储蓄对经济增长的作用过程存在门槛效应,在储蓄跨过门槛值后,老龄化对经济增长的抑制作用减小;在老龄化跨过门槛值后,储蓄对经济增长的促进作用也减小。第三,老龄化和储蓄均通过正向影响产业结构反作用于经济增长。第四,老龄化通过抑制人力资本积累对经济增长不利,储蓄对人力资本的作用效果不显著。最后,综合分析所得结论并提出相关建议,即适当提高储蓄水平,创造资本优势;完善人口政策和社会保障制度,积极应对人口老龄化;转变经济增长模式,以技术创新驱动产业结构优化;加大人力资本投入,变人口数量优势为质量优势,弥补劳动力不足的问题。

英文摘要

Since the reform and opening up, China has achieved rapid development in terms of economic volume and quality, relying on unlimited labor supply and high investment brought about by high savings. However, the gradual disappearance of the "demographic dividend" and the emergence of the "savings malpractice theory" have caused people's concern about the lack of impetus for economic growth and the decline of economic growth. Gansu Province is located in the northwest of China, with relatively lagging economic development. Although it entered the aging process relatively late, it has the characteristics of rapid aging development, uneven regional development, and aging before getting rich.

This dissertation mainly analyzes the impact of aging and savings on economic growth in Gansu Province. In the theoretical part, based on a large amount of literature, the mechanism of the effects of aging and savings on economic growth in Gansu Province was sorted out; In the empirical part, the panel data of 14 cities in Gansu Province from 2009 to 2020 are used for analysis. The main conclusions are as follows: firstly, aging is not conducive to economic growth, while increasing savings is beneficial for economic growth. In regions with higher levels of economic development, the negative impact of aging on economic growth is smaller, while the positive impact of savings on economic growth is greater. Secondly, there is a threshold effect in the process of aging and savings affecting economic growth. After savings cross the threshold, the inhibitory effect of aging on economic growth decreases; After the aging population crosses the threshold, the promoting effect of savings on economic growth also decreases. Thirdly, both aging and savings have a positive impact on industrial structure and a negative impact on economic growth. Fourth, aging is detrimental to economic growth by inhibiting the accumulation of human capital accumulation, and the effect of savings on human capital is not significant. Finally, a comprehensive analysis of the conclusions obtained and relevant suggestions are proposed, namely, to appropriately increase the level of savings and create capital advantages; Improve population policies and social security systems, and actively respond to the aging population; Transforming the economic growth model and driving industrial structure optimization through technological innovation; Increase investment in human capital, transform the advantage of population quantity into a quality advantage, and make up for the problem of insufficient labor force.

学位类型硕士
答辩日期2023-05-20
学位授予地点甘肃省兰州市
语种中文
论文总页数60
参考文献总数62
馆藏号0005014
保密级别公开
中图分类号C8/340
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/34342
专题统计与数据科学学院
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
杜蔓云. 甘肃省老龄化和储蓄对经济增长的影响研究[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2023.
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