统计与数据科学学院知识库

制造业作为实体经济的重要组成部分，不仅是近代中国崛起的重要支撑力量， 更是国家实力的象征。制造业的快速发展也会带来一系列的环境问题，进而环境 规制政策开始逐渐加强，制造业的发展也受到了影响。平衡环境规制和制造业产 业结构发展的问题也逐步显现出来，探究环境规制对我国制造业产业结构升级是 怎样的影响关系和基于什么样的路径进行影响是解决问题的方向。同时为“制造 大国”向“制造强国”转变提供参考意见。 首先基于国内外关于环境规制、制造业产业结构及两者间关系的研究为本文 的研究方向和方法提供参考。其次在界定环境规制和制造业产业结构升级的概念 后，基于波特假说、污染避难所说等假说确定本文的中介变量技术创新和 FDI。 然后经过分析我国环境规制和制造业产业结构升级的发展趋势和分区域发展的 特点发现两者间存在显著区域差异性。最后，基于 2012-2020 年我国 30 个省市 数据（除西藏和港澳台地区）构建面板模型、中介面板模型、带调节效应的中介 面板模型和分区域面板模型探究环境规制对制造业结构升级的影响路径。 结果表明正式和非正式环境规制可以促进我国制造业产业结构的合理化和 高级化水平，资产负债率水平的提高会对制造业产业结构升级产生抑制作用，而 城镇化的影响呈现差异性。环境规制可以通过技术创新和 FDI 间接影响制造业 产业结构升级，正式和非正式基于技术创新路径对制造业高级化产生的中介效应 分别占总效应的 25.74%和 21.01%，正式环境规制通过 FDI 路径对制造业合理化 和高级化分别产生 12.39%和 8.58%的间接效应。劳动力错配和资本错配会降低 技术创新的正向中介效应。受经济发展水平的影响环境规制对制造业产业结构升 级的影响具有显著的区域差异性，对东部和西部的影响最显著。 基于实证结果提出了以下对策：推动正式和非正式环境规制协调发展；加快 企业技术升级，提高边际利润；区域差异化实施环境规制标准；建立建全融资市 场和劳动力市场发展机制。

Manufacturing, as an important part of the real economy, is not only an important supporting force for China's rise in modern times, but also a symbol of national strength. The rapid development of manufacturing will also bring a series of environmental problems, and therefore environmental regulation policies have gradually strengthened, affecting the development of manufacturing. The problem of balancing environmental regulation and the development of manufacturing industry structure has gradually emerged. Exploring the relationship between environmental regulation and the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry structure and the path based on which it affects is the direction for solving the problem. At the same time, it provides reference opinions for the transformation from a "manufacturing power" to a "manufacturing strong country". First, based on domestic and foreign research on environmental regulation, manufacturing industry structure, and the relationship between the two, this paper provides reference for the research direction and method. Secondly, after defining the concepts of environmental regulation and the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure, this paper determines the intermediate variables of technological innovation and FDI based on hypotheses such as Porter's hypothesis and pollution haven hypothesis. Then, through analysis of the development trends of environmental regulation and the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure in China,and the characteristics of regional development, it was found that there are significant regional differences between the two. Finally, based on the data of 30 provinces and cities in China (excluding Tibet and Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan) from 2012 to 2020, we construct a panel model, an intermediary panel model, an intermediary panel model with regulatory effects, and a subregional panel model to explore the impact path of environmental regulation on the structural upgrading of the manufacturing industry. The results show that formal and informal environmental regulations can promote the rationalization and high-level upgrading of China's manufacturing industry structure. An increase in the level of asset-liability ratio will have a restraining effect on the upgrading of the manufacturing industry structure, while the impact of urbanization shows differences. Environmental regulation can indirectly affect the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure through technological innovation and FDI. The intermediary effects of formal and informal technological innovation paths on the advanced upgrading of manufacturing industry account for 25.74% and 21.01% of the total effect respectively. Formal environmental regulation has indirect effects of 12.39% and 8.58% on the rationalization and high-level upgrading of the manufacturing industry through the FDI path respectively. Labor and capital mismatch will reduce the positive intermediary effect of technological innovation. The impact of environmental regulation on the upgrading of manufacturing industry structure has significant regional differences, which are most significant in the eastern and western regions, and is influenced by the level of economic development. Based on the empirical results, the following countermeasures are proposed: promoting the coordinated development of formal and informal environmental regulations; Accelerate the technological upgrading of enterprises and improve the marginal profit; Regional differentiation implementation of environmental regulation standards; Establish and improve the financing market and labor market development mechanism.