统计与数据科学学院知识库

产业结构调整优化是经济健康稳定发展的内在要求，产业结构的调整优化更是建设现代化经济体系的关键和主要环节。改革开放以来，我国经济社会发展取得了举世瞩目的成就，在倡导高质量发展的新时代，为了更好实现“两个百年”奋斗目标，党中央做出了建设现代经济体系的重大决策部署。作为经济欠发达地区的甘肃省，受各方面条件和多种因素的影响，其产业发展还比较滞后，产业结构也不尽合理，经济发展中具有的比较优势没能得到充分发挥，致使甘肃省现代化经济体系的建设还没有进入“快车道”。为此，科学认识甘肃省产业发展现状，具体分析甘肃省产业结构调整优化的路径，从而推动甘肃省经济社会的全面可持续发展就成了需要迫切解决的现实问题。

基于上述背景，利用2000-2020年甘肃省有关产业结构方面的时间序列资料，主要分析研究了甘肃省的产业结构调整优化问题。首先，根据产业结构演进理论和产业结构调整优化理论，结合甘肃省产业结构发展的现状，从产业结构合理化、高级化和高效化三个维度出发构建了一套测评甘肃省产业结构调整优化水平的指标体系；其次，利用主成分分析法对甘肃省产业结构调整优化水平进行综合测度，并分别从合理化、高级化和高效化等方面开展具体的评价分析；最后，利用多元线性回归模型分别从内外部两方面探究了甘肃省产业结构调整优化水平的主要影响因素，并针对发现的突出问题，提出了促进甘肃省产业结构调整优化的对策建议。

依据以上研究，得到如下的结论：

（1）整体来说，甘肃省的产业结构调整优化水平呈现上升态势；（2）分层来看，甘肃省的产业结构调整优化水平在合理化、高级化和高效化三个维度均表现出上升趋势；（3）从时序变化来看，甘肃省产业结构调整优化水平具有明显的阶段性，先后经历了低水平发展—波动变化—稳定上升的三个阶段；（4）甘肃省三次产业之间及各产业内部的发展不均衡；（5）甘肃省产业结构调整水平受多种因素影响，内部各主要因素对甘肃省产业结构调整优化的作用强度表现出居民消费需求大于城镇化水平大于人力资源水平，外部各主要因素对甘肃省产业结构调整优化的作用强度表现出政府干预程度大于国有控股企业单位数占比大于固定资产投资。

综合上述结论，认为甘肃省产业结构调整优化，考虑内部因素应走激发居民消费欲，引导新型消费热点、努力提升城镇化发展水平、重视人才资本之路、发挥当地资源优势；考虑外部因素应走坚持国有企业核心地位，积极提高企业活力、优化投资环境，积极推进产业投资、深化相关政策，促进产业协调发展之路。

The adjustment and optimisation of industrial structure is an inherent requirement for healthy and stable economic development, and the adjustment and optimisation of industrial structure is the key and main link in building a modern economic system. Since the reform and opening up, China's economic and social development has made world-renowned achievements. In the new era of advocating high-quality development, the Party Central Committee has made a major decision to build a modern economic system in order to better achieve the "two hundred years" goal. As an economically underdeveloped region, Gansu Province is affected by various conditions and factors, its industrial development is still lagging behind, the industrial structure is not quite reasonable, the comparative advantages in economic development have not been given full play, resulting in the construction of a modern economic system in Gansu Province has not yet entered the "fast track". To this end, scientific understanding of the current situation of industrial development in Gansu Province, specific analysis of Gansu Province's industrial structure adjustment and optimisation of the path, so as to promote the comprehensive and sustainable development of Gansu Province's economy and society has become a realistic problem that needs to be urgently addressed.

Based on the above background, the time series data on the industrial structure of Gansu Province from 2000 to 2020 are used to analyse and study the industrial structure adjustment and optimisation of Gansu Province. Firstly, according to the theory of industrial structure evolution and the theory of industrial structure adjustment and optimisation, a set of index system for measuring the level of industrial structure adjustment and optimisation in Gansu Province is constructed from the three dimensions of industrial structure rationalisation, advanced and efficient, in accordance with the current situation of industrial structure development in Gansu Province; secondly, a comprehensive measurement of the level of industrial structure adjustment and optimisation in Gansu Province is carried out using principal component analysis, and specific evaluation analyses are carried out in terms of rationalisation, advanced and efficient respectively, Finally, a multiple linear regression model is used to investigate the main factors influencing the level of industrial restructuring and optimisation in Gansu Province from both internal and external aspects, and countermeasures are proposed to promote the industrial restructuring and optimisation in Gansu Province in response to the outstanding problems identified.

Based on the above research, the following conclusions are obtained:

(1) On the whole, the level of industrial restructuring and optimization in Gansu Province shows an upward trend; (2) In terms of stratification, the level of industrial restructuring and optimization in Gansu Province shows an upward trend in the three dimensions of rationalization, advanced and efficient; (3) In terms of temporal changes, the level of industrial restructuring and optimization in Gansu Province has obvious stages, and has gone through three stages of low-level development - fluctuating changes - stable rise; (4) The level of industrial restructuring in Gansu Province is influenced by a variety of factors and the uneven development of each industry. (5) The level of industrial restructuring in Gansu Province is influenced by a number of factors. The intensity of the role of each major internal factor in the restructuring and optimisation of Gansu Province's industrial structure shows that the consumer demand of residents greater than the level of urbanisation greater than the level of human resources, and the intensity of the role of each major external factor in the restructuring and optimisation of Gansu Province's industrial structure shows that the degree of government intervention greater than the number of units of state-controlled enterprises greater than fixed asset investment.

Taking into account the above conclusions, it is believed that the industrial structure adjustment and optimisation of Gansu Province should follow the path of stimulating the desire of residents to consume, guiding new consumption hotspots, striving to improve the level of urbanisation development, attaching importance to human capital, and giving full play to the advantages of local resources; considering external factors, it should follow the path of adhering to the core position of state-owned enterprises, actively improving the vitality of enterprises, optimising the investment environment, actively promoting industrial investment, deepening relevant policies, and promoting the coordinated development of industries.