会计学院知识库

新时代背景下，我国休闲食品零售业呈现出巨大潜力，行业规模迅速扩大，但发展过快，导致企业忽视质量以及国内外市场环境骤变等因素对行业造成了一定的打击，尤其是以电商销售为主的企业，销售情况受外部环境影响较大，同时平台费、原材料成本的居高不下，也给企业经营造成了一定的压力，稍有不慎就会带来财务危机。企业财务风险是客观存在的，不可能完全消失，因此需要企业时刻关注风险状态,及时采取措施，而建立财务风险预警体系则有助于企业提前掌控财务风险动向，把握时机，将财务风险控制在可接受范围内，避免因财务风险爆发造成不可逆的损失。

本文选取三只松鼠公司作为研究对象，一方面三只松鼠出现了管理体制相对保守、线下渠道发展不顺畅等问题，财务活动容易被外部环境和内部环境所影响；另一方面，三只松鼠为改善目前困境，正处在推动企业战略转型中，在机会与挑战并存的背景下，加强财务风险的预警及防范至关重要。

论文首先对财务风险及预警方面的相关文献和理论基础进行了梳理，在此基础上，对三只松鼠的经营概况、财务状况和财务风险预警状况进行了分析，指出三只松鼠目前存在一定的财务风险防控问题，进而提出建立财务风险预警体系的必要性。其次，通过前期对财务风险预警相关理论的梳理，以《企业绩效评价标准值》为参考依据，结合行业、企业特点，从筹资、投资、营运、利润分配4个层面选取20项财务指标，再使用熵值法、相关性分析等进行指标筛选和权重赋予，之后运用改进的功效系数法计算指标评分值，划分预警等级，构建适用于三只松鼠的财务风险预警体系。最后，将三只松鼠2017-2021年数据代入构建好的财务风险预警体系，进行预警应用，并针对分析结果，提出防范财务风险的建议，同时为财务风险预警体系良好运行提出几点保障措施，以期望加强企业财务风险预警能力，进而推动三只松鼠顺利完成战略转型，走上高质量发展道路。

关键词：财务风险预警 熵值法 功效系数法 三只松鼠

In the context of the new era, China's leisure food retail industry has shown great potential, with rapid expansion of the industry scale. However, its rapid development has led to companies neglecting quality and sudden changes in the domestic and foreign market environment, which have dealt a certain blow to the industry. Especially for enterprises mainly engaged in e-commerce sales, their sales situation is greatly affected by the external environment. At the same time, the high platform fees and raw material costs have also caused certain pressure on their operations, A slight mistake can lead to financial crisis. Enterprise financial risks exist objectively and cannot be completely eliminated. Therefore, it is necessary for enterprises to always pay attention to the risk status and take timely measures. Establishing a financial risk warning system can help enterprises control financial risk trends in advance, seize the opportunity, control financial risks within an acceptable range, and avoid irreversible losses caused by financial risk outbreaks.

This paper chooses Three Squirrels Company as the research object. On the one hand, three Squirrels has problems such as relatively conservative management system, poor development of offline channels, etc., and its financial activities are easy to be affected by external and internal environment. On the other hand, in order to improve the current predicament, the three Squirrels are in the process of promoting the strategic transformation of the enterprise. Under the background of both opportunities and challenges, it is very important to strengthen the early warning and prevention of financial risks.

First of all, the paper reviews the relevant literature and theoretical basis of financial risk and early warning. On this basis, the operation overview, financial situation and financial risk early warning situation of the three squirrels are analyzed, and points out the existing problems of financial risk prevention and control of the three squirrels, and then proposes the necessity of establishing a financial risk early warning system. Secondly, by combing the theories related to financial risk early warning in the early stage, taking Standard Value of Enterprise Performance Evaluation as the reference basis and combining the characteristics of the industry and enterprise, 20 financial indicators are selected from four levels of financing, investment, operation and profit distribution, and then entropy method and correlation analysis are used to screen indicators and assign weights. After that, the improved efficacy coefficient method was used to calculate the index score value, classify the warning level, and construct the financial risk warning system suitable for the three squirrels. Finally, the 2017-2021 data of the three squirrels is put into the constructed financial risk early warning system for early warning application. Based on the analysis results, suggestions on preventing financial risks are put forward, and several safeguard measures are proposed for the good operation of the financial risk early warning system, in order to strengthen the enterprise's financial risk early warning ability, and further promote the three Squirrels to successfully complete the strategic transformation. Embark on the path of high-quality development.

Keywords: Financial risk warning; Entropy method; Efficiency coefficient method; Three Squirrels Company