金融学院知识库

  在2008年全球金融危机爆发后，我国房地产企业债务规模快速扩张，高杠杆带来潜在的系统性风险成为各界关注的焦点。我国为了防范金融风险的发生，在2020年推出“三道红线”和“房地产企业贷款集中管理制度”来优化金融资源配置，严防资金违规流入房地产市场。我国对房地产企业的监管变严，有效遏制了房地产企业杠杆率的持续攀升。但自2021年以来，以恒大集团为代表的部分房地产企业陆续出现资金周转困难，相继出现债务违约事件，对房地产市场以及相关金融机构带来了较大的冲击。因此，有必要对房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险的关系进行深入探讨，从而制定更有效的风险防范对策。

  本文首先对文献进行回顾，就系统性金融风险的定义、测度与杠杆率、房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响关系及作用机制等文献进行总结概括。接着，详细阐述了房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的作用机制。随后，采用综合指数法对全国系统性金融风险进行测度，基于国家层面数据对房地产企业、房地产企业杠杆率、系统性金融风险的情况进行现状分析，并绘制出相关型折线图，初步显示出房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险的非线性关系。最后，基于2005-2021年省级面板数据，采用综合指数法测度了省域系统性金融风险，根据固定效应面板模型及空间杜宾模型研究了房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响及空间溢出效应。研究发现：（1）房地产企业杠杆率与系统性金融风险之间呈现先促进后抑制的“U”型关系，拐点在76.01%左右。（2）房价水平在房地产企业杠杆率影响系统性金融风险的变动过程中具有显著的负向调节作用，房价的上涨能抑制房地产企业杠杆率对系统性金融风险的影响。（3）人均GDP增长率、金融发展水平、经济外向程度、城镇化水平对系统性金融风险具有抑制作用；人口老龄化对系统性金融风险具有刺激作用（4）空间视角的分析显示，其他省份房地产企业杠杆率上升能够发挥“警示作用”进而抑制本省份的系统性金融风险，但中部地区恰恰相反，因此，房地产企业去杠杆的重点应在中部地区。

  最后，本文基于理论分析与实证结果，主要从房地产企业角度、融资监管角度、政府角度给出了相应的对策建议。为化解房地产领域风险与系统性金融风险提供了政策参考。

     After the outbreak of the global financial crisis in 2008, the debt scale of Chinese real estate enterprises expanded rapidly, and the potential systemic risks brought by high leverage became the focus of attention. In order to prevent the occurrence of risks, China has introduced the "three red lines" and the "centralized loan management system for real estate enterprises" in 2020 to optimize the allocation of financial resources and strictly prevent the illegal flow of funds into the real estate market. China's stricter supervision of real estate enterprises has effectively curbed the continuous rise of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises. However, since 2021, some real estate enterprises represented by Evergrande Group have encountered capital turnover difficulties and debt defaults one after another, which have brought a great impact on the real estate market and related financial institutions. Therefore, it is necessary to deeply discuss the relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risks, so as to formulate more effective risk prevention countermeasures.

     Firstly, this paper reviews the literature, and summarizes the definition and measurement of systemic financial risk, as well as the influence relationship and mechanism of leverage ratio and leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on systemic financial risk. Then, based on the existing theories and research results, the paper analyzes the mechanism of real estate enterprise leverage ratio affecting systemic financial risk. Then, the comprehensive index method is used to measure the national systemic financial risk. Based on the national data, the development status of real estate enterprises, the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and the change of systemic financial risk are analyzed, and the correlation line chart is drawn, which preliminarily shows the nonlinear relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risk. Finally, based on the provincial panel data from 2005 to 2021, the comprehensive index method is used to measure the provincial systemic financial risk, and the fixed-effect panel model and the spatial Dubin model are used to study the influence of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on the systemic financial risk and the spatial spillover effect. The results show that the relationship between the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises and systemic financial risk presents a "U" shaped relationship, which first promotes and then inhibits, and the inflection point is about 76.01%. The housing price level has a significant negative moderating effect on the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises affecting the systemic financial risk. The rising housing price can restrain the influence of the leverage ratio of real estate enterprises on the systemic financial risk. The spatial analysis shows that the rising leverage ratio of real estate enterprises in other provinces can play a "warning role" and restrain systemic financial risks in their own provinces, but it is just the opposite in the central region. Therefore, the focus of real estate enterprises to deleverage should be in the central region.

      Finally, based on theoretical analysis and empirical results, this paper mainly gives corresponding countermeasures and suggestions from the perspective of real estate enterprises, financing supervision and government. It provides a new policy reference for resolving risks in real estate and systemic financial risks.