国际经济与贸易学院知识库

随着经济全球化的不断发展，世界各国之间的贸易关系变得越来越密切，这促进了全球经济的融合。中国正不断适应全球贸易的发展趋势，并积极拓展对外投资，以参与国际市场的竞争。然而，目前的国际政治经济形势复杂多变，中国对外投资活动也受到了较大的影响。本文深入探讨东道国的经济政策的不确定性，并分析它们如何影响中国OFDI规模和进入方式，这将为中国的对外经济活动提供重要的指导。

本文通过对实物期权机制、融资成本、政策信息及东道国宏观经济发展水平四种机制探讨，研究了东道国对中国投资者的投资意愿，并起到促进作用。本文构建动态面板模型，对不确定性和中国OFDI的关系展开实证研究，并根据实证结果，对模型进行展开说明。研究认为：（1）中国的对外直接投资受到东道国经济政策不确定性的抑制作用，而且这种抑制作用存在滞后效应。通过实证回归分析，我们发现这一结论与之前的研究结果相一致。（2）从2005—2010年和2011—2020年两个时间段EPU的回归系数值可以看出，2011—2020年的负冲击更大些。因此东道国经济政策作为影响对外投资活动的重要因素应当被重视。（3）由于东道国的经济政策变化多端，OFDI的流向也会有所不同，但是绿地投资的流向受到的影响要远远大于跨国并购的影响。

在上述研究的基础上，本文针对中国的对外直接投资发展行为，从多个视角深入探讨，并给出可供借鉴的建议。从企业的视角来看，企业发展对外直接投资应当有选择性，选择那些经济发达、基础设施完备、外商投资政策宽松的国家；强化企业研发投入，提升企业自身实力。从国家角度看，国家应转变对外投资模式、丰富对外投资的区位选择；同时保证国内政策环境的稳定性，完善相关预警机制，以便高效应对发生的问题，加快对东道国经济政策环境适应的速度；建立健全信息共享机制，加强国际交流合作，加强对金融业特别是银行业的监管。

With the continuous development of economic globalization, the trade relations between countries in the world become more and more close, which promotes the integration of the global economy. China is constantly adapting to the development trend of global trade and actively expanding foreign investment in order to participate in the international market competition. However, the current international political and economic situation is complex and changeable, and China's overseas investment activities have been greatly affected. In this paper, the uncertainties of host countries' economic policies will be deeply discussed and how they affect the scale and entry mode of China's OFDI will be analyzed, which will provide important guidance for China's foreign economic activities.

This paper discusses four mechanisms, namely real option mechanism, financing cost, policy information and macroeconomic development level of the host country, and studies the willingness of the host country to invest in Chinese investors, and plays a promoting role. This paper constructs a dynamic panel model to conduct an empirical study on the relationship between uncertainty and China's OFDI, and explains the model according to the empirical results. The results show that: (1) China's FDI is inhibited by the uncertainty of the host country's economic policies, and this inhibition has a lag effect. Through empirical 

regression analysis, we found that this conclusion is consistent with the results of previous studies. (2) It can be seen from the regression coefficients of EPU from 2005 to 2010 and 2011 to 2020 that the negative impact from 2011 to 2020 is greater. Therefore, the host country's economic policy as an important factor affecting foreign investment activities should be paid attention to. (3) Due to the variable economic policies of host countries, the flow direction of OFDI will be different, but the impact on the flow direction of greenfield investment is far greater than that of cross—border mergers and acquisitions.

On the basis of the above research, this paper discusses the development behavior of China's foreign direct investment from multiple perspectives, and gives some suggestions for reference. From the perspective of enterprises, enterprises should be selective in developing foreign direct investment, choosing those countries with developed economy, complete infrastructure and loose foreign investment policy. Strengthen enterprise research and development investment, improve their own strength. From the point of view of the country, the country should change the mode of foreign investment and enrich the location choice of foreign investment. At the same time, ensure the stability of domestic policy environment, improve the relevant early warning mechanism, so as to effectively deal with the problems, accelerate the speed of adaptation to the economic policy environment of the host country; We will establish a sound information sharing mechanism, strengthen international exchanges and cooperation, and strengthen supervision over the financial sector, especially the banking sector.