会计学院知识库

随着我国经济的快速发展，财务舞弊案件接连曝出，许多上市公司因涉嫌财务舞弊等行为而受到相关部门的处罚。这些行为不但使我国自由市场受到冲击，阻碍了上市公司的发展，还会使投资者对金融市场丧失信心。因此，如何对财务舞弊行为进行有效识别与防范，具有较高的理论价值与理现实意义。
本研究主要以案例分析法与实证分析法相结合来研究上市公司财务舞弊问题。首先以CRIME理论为框架，对广州浪奇的财务舞弊行为从舞弊者、手段、动机、监管机制以及舞弊后果五个方面展开分析。其次，本文运用Logistic回归模型建立了适用于化学原料和化学制品制造业 A 股上市企业的财务舞弊识别模型。建模时参考以CRIME理论为框架的案例分析，选择了可能会因财务舞弊而产生变化的财务与非财务指标27个，同时以A股2017-2021年因舞弊被证监会通报批评的化学原料和化学制品制造业上市企业作为研究样本，并以未被证监会和两交所等监管机构发布过任何形式的惩罚公告的公司为对照样本，构建出相应的财务舞弊识别模型，且其识别率达到 74.8%。并得出以下结论：（1）在财务造假事件中，上市公司在股权和控制权极度集中的背景下，财务舞弊发生的概率极高。（2）上市公司因不合理的商业发展模式而产生的商业风险会导致企业实施财务舞弊。（3）财务舞弊的识别方法应随着经济业务多元化的发展不断更新，可通过对企业信息进行分析，构建出有效的财务舞弊识别模型。

With the rapid development of my country's economy, financial fraud cases have been exposed one after another, and many listed companies are punished by relevant departments for suspected financial fraud. These actions not only have impacted my country's free market, hindered the development of listed companies, but also caused investors to lose confidence in the financial market. Therefore, how to effectively identify and prevent financial fraud has high theoretical value and realistic significance.
In this study, the case analysis method and empirical analysis method are used to study the financial fraud problem of listed companies.First of all, the CRIME theory is the framework to analyze the five aspects of the Crime's Langqi financial fraud from the five aspects: Cooks, Recipes, Incentives, Monitoring and End Result. Secondly, this article uses the Logistic regression model to establish a financial fraud recognition model for chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing companies.In the case of modeling, refer to the case analysis of CRIME theory as the framework, and 27 financial and non-financial indicators that may change due to financial fraud. At the same time Listing companies with chemical products manufacturing as research samples, and based on the company that has not been announced by regulatory agencies such as the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission and the Securities Regulatory Commission, the company has been published as a controlled sample to build a corresponding financial fraud recognition model and the recognition rate reaches 74.8%.The following conclusions are obtained: (1) In the background of the financial fake incident, the probability of financial fraud occurred in the context of extreme concentration of equity and control. (2) The commercial risks caused by unreasonable business development models of listed companies will lead to financial fraud in the implementation of the company. (3) The method of identification of financial fraud should be continuously updated with the diversification of economic business. It can be analyzed by corporate information to build effective financial fraud recognition models.