统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年我国区域经济版图由“总体聚集”向“总体分散、分类聚集”的态势转变，区域发展战略也相应由梯度推进向点区辐射的调整，当前经济动力转换、增长势能不足的经济环境下，新的增长动力、增长极、区域发展战略亟待培育与发掘。省域间不对称竞争的形势严峻，内陆各省会城市缺乏沿海地区得天独厚的区位优势和产业基础，齐头并进、强调均等的发展逻辑并不适用也支撑乏力，加之成都、武汉等城市示范在前，“强省会”战略应声而起、遍地开花，成为一些省份集中优势资源发展核心城市，成为本省在省域竞争中夺得话语权，缓解人才外流、吸引资本与政策青睐的最佳选择。

作为非均衡发展战略，“强省会”有其不容质疑的优势和必然性，也有令人担心的虹吸效应与失衡可能，因此刻画识别省域内城市经济格局与结构特征、探究省会城市溢出效应及其影响机制，对战略有效实施、赋能“边缘”城市、实现省域内经济全面可持续发展具有重要意义。而不同经济发展水平、不同区位优势背景下，“强省会”战略是否普遍适用，又该强到什么程度，其影响机制是否具有一定内在逻辑与发展规律，基于此进行理论推导与实证分析。

本文基于增长极及空间经济学理论，结合社会网络分析与经济计量分析方法，以经济联系构建省域范围内的城市经济网络，基于2005-2019年地级市面板数据构建调节效应模型，探究省会城市的溢出效应与城市经济网络联系紧密程度、协调水平、省会城市中心性之间的关系，并考量样本与时代特征，深入分析政府干预及以数字经济为代表的经济、技术形态转变对省会城市溢出效应的影响，并基于新兴古典经济学为省域内零和竞争、失衡局势作出发展方向的进一步探索，测度并研究省域内城市间专业化空间分工的格局的形成与发展情况。得到实证结果：①整体上省会城市的溢出影响以正向辐射为主，但对于不同类型城市具有异质性。②地方城市经济发展与省内城市间经济联系强度有着正U型关系，与省内发展极化程度有着倒U型关系。③地方城市的政府干预没有有效解决区际发展差异带来虹吸及回流效应，对承接省会城市经济溢出的效果也并不明显。④数字经济对促进省会城市经济扩散及地方城市经济承接还未起到有效作用。⑤省会经济优势地位的提高对具有一定发展基础、仍在发展过程中的周边城市功能专业化的提升具有正向调节作用。

In recent years, China's regional economic landscape has changed from "overall gathering" to "overall dispersion and classified gathering", and the regional development strategy has accordingly changed from gradient advancement to point area radiation adjustment. Under the current economic environment of economic power transformation and insufficient growth potential energy, new growth drivers, growth poles and regional development strategies need to be cultivated and explored. The situation of asymmetric competition among provinces is severe. The inland provincial capital cities lack the unique regional advantages and industrial foundation in coastal areas. The logic of going hand in hand and emphasizing equal development is not applicable and the support is weak. In addition, Chengdu, Wuhan and other cities are leading the demonstration. The strategy of "strengthening the provincial capital" has sprung up and flourished everywhere, becoming the core city for some provinces to concentrate their advantageous resources and become the province's voice in provincial competition, The best choice to mitigate the brain drain and attract capital and policy favor.

As an unbalanced development strategy, "strengthening the provincial capital" has its unquestionable advantages and inevitability, as well as the worrying siphon effect and imbalance possibility. Therefore, it is of great significance to describe and identify the economic pattern and structural characteristics of cities in the province, and explore the spillover effect and its impact mechanism of provincial capital cities for the effective implementation of the strategy, enabling "marginal" cities, and realizing the comprehensive and sustainable development of the economy in the province. Under different levels of economic development and different regional advantages, whether the "strong provincial capital" strategy is universally applicable, and to what extent, and whether its impact mechanism has certain internal logic and development laws, empirical analysis is made based on this.

Based on the theory of growth pole and spatial economics, combined with social network analysis and econometric analysis methods, this paper builds a provincial urban economic network with economic links, and constructs a regulatory effect model based on the panel data of prefecture level cities from 2005 to 2019, to explore the relationship between the spillover effect of provincial capital cities and the closeness, coordination level and centrality of the urban economic network, and to consider the characteristics of samples and the times, In depth analysis of the impact of government intervention and the transformation of economic and technological forms represented by the digital economy on the spillover effect of provincial capital cities, and further exploration of the development direction for the zero sum competition and imbalance situation within the province based on the emerging classical economics, measure and study the formation and development of the pattern of specialized spatial division of labor between cities and cities within the province. The empirical results are as follows: ① On the whole, the spillover effect of provincial capital cities is mainly positive radiation, but it is heterogeneous for different types of cities. ② The economic development of local cities has a positive U-shaped relationship with the strength of economic ties between cities in the province, and an inverse U-shaped relationship with the polarization degree of development in the province. ③ The government intervention of local cities has not effectively solved the siphon and return effects brought by the regional development differences, and the effect on undertaking the economic spillover of provincial capital cities is not obvious. ④ Digital economy has not played an effective role in promoting the economic diffusion of provincial capital cities and the economic undertaking of local cities. ⑤ The improvement of the provincial capital's economic advantage has a positive regulating effect on the promotion of the functional specialization of surrounding cities that have a certain development foundation and are still in the process of development.