统计与数据科学学院知识库

在绿色发展的大环境中，碳金融发展符合我国绿色发展的核心价值理念，对日常生活生产模式产生了不可忽视的影响。碳金融作为全球公认的解决全球变暖有效的方法之一，其发展必定会给经济社会生产带来新鲜活力。由于碳金融发展与低碳、绿色活动密不可分，因此必然会改变以往的生产生活方式，对三次产业结构的升级带来一定影响。

基于此，本研究从碳金融发展对产业结构升级的影响效应出发，通过梳理相关文献，阐述碳金融发展的理论基础，并从产业结构影响因素这一角度出发分析碳金融发展对产业结构升级的影响途径，构建碳金融发展水平评价指标体系和产业结构升级评价指标体系，分析近几年两者的发展情况，使用灰色关联模型探究二者之间的关联程度，随后运用时序加权平均算子的方法计算各省市绿色发展水平动态综合评价值，使用Arcgis软件技术根据评价值对地区进行划分，最后通过实证分析不同地区碳金融发展对产业结构升级的影响效应，并从促进碳金融和产业结构升级良好互动层面提出相关建议。

本研究首先阅读相关文献，对碳金融发展和产业结构升级的相关研究成果进行梳理阐述，最终选定从产业结构升级影响因素这一角度出发阐述碳金融发展对产业结构升级的影响，主要从能源效率、市场配置、政策制度和金融环境四个层面出发，随后构建指标体系分析二者近几年的发展情况，使用灰色关联模型探究二者之间的关联程度，结果表明：近三年我国各省市碳金融发展和产业结构升级整体发展程度不高，且存在较大地区差异，二者之间均为中度关联或强关联关系。

接着引入29个省市2014-2020年面板数据进行实证分析，首先运用时序加权平均算子的方法计算各省市绿色发展水平动态综合评价值，根据得分情况将地区划分为绿色发展高水平地区、中水平地区和低水平地区，将产业结构升级分为产业结构高级化与产业结构合理化，分区域构建面板模型进行分析，研究结果表明：从全国范围来看，碳金融发展对产业结构高级化有正向影响，但不显著，对产业结构合理化有显著正向影响。在绿色发展高水平地区，碳金融发展对产业结构高级化与合理化均有正向促进作用，但影响效应均不显著；在绿色发展中水平地区，碳金融发展对产业结构高级化影响不显著，但有正向促进作用，对产业结构合理化存在显著的正向影响；在绿色发展低水平地区，碳金融发展对产业结构高级化与合理化均存在显著正向影响。

In the context of green development, the development of carbon finance is in line with the core values of China's green development and has an impact on the daily life and production mode. As one of the most effective ways to solve global warming, the development of carbon finance is bound to bring fresh vitality to economic and social production. Since the development of carbon finance is inseparable from low-carbon and green activities, it will inevitably change the previous production and lifestyle, which will have a certain impact on the upgrading of the three industrial structures.

Based on this, starting from the influence effect of carbon finance development on industrial structure upgrading, this study expounds the theoretical basis of carbon finance development by combing relevant literature, analyzes the impact of carbon finance development on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of industrial structure influencing factors, constructs the carbon finance development level evaluation index system and industrial structure upgrading evaluation index system, analyzes the development of the two in recent years, and uses the gray correlation model to explore the degree of correlation between the two. Then, the time-series weighted average operator method is used to calculate the dynamic comprehensive evaluation value of the green development level of each province and city, and the ArcGIS software technology is used to divide the regions according to the evaluation value of the green development, and finally the impact of carbon finance development on industrial structure upgrading in different regions is analyzed empirically, and relevant suggestions are put forward from the level of promoting the good interaction between carbon finance and industrial structure upgrading.

This study first reads the relevant literature, sorts out and elaborates the relevant research results of carbon finance development and industrial structure upgrading, and finally chooses to explain the impact of carbon finance development on industrial structure upgrading from the perspective of influencing factors of industrial structure upgrading, mainly from the four levels of energy efficiency, market allocation, policy system and financial environment, and then constructs an index system to analyze the development of the two in recent years, and uses the gray correlation model to explore the degree of correlation between the two. The results show that the overall development degree of carbon finance development and industrial structure upgrading in various provinces and cities in China in the past three years is not high, and there are large regional differences, and the two are moderately correlated or strongly correlated.

Then, the panel data of 29 provinces and cities from 2014 to 2020 are introduced for empirical analysis, and the dynamic comprehensive evaluation value of the green development level of each province and city is calculated by using the method of time-series weighted average operator, and the regions are divided into high-level green development areas, medium-level areas and low-level areas according to the score, and the industrial structure upgrading is refined into advanced industrial structure and rationalization of industrial structure, and the panel model is constructed in sub-regions for analysis. The development of carbon finance has a positive impact on the advanced industrial structure, but it is not significant, and has a significant positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure. In areas with high levels of green development, the development of carbon finance has a positive effect on the advanced and rationalization of industrial structure, but the impact effect is not significant. In areas with medium level of green development, the development of carbon finance has no significant impact on the advanced industrial structure, but has a positive promotion effect, and has a significant positive impact on the rationalization of industrial structure. In areas with low levels of green development, the development of carbon finance has a significant positive impact on the upgrading and rationalization of industrial structure.