统计与数据科学学院知识库

习近平总书记提出加快形成以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是根据我国发展阶段、环境、条件变化做出的战略决策。党的二十大报告指出，要增强国内大循环内生动力和可靠性，提升国际循环质量和水平，加快建设现代化经济体系。与此同时，国内数字经济仍保持蓬勃发展态势，已经成为中国经济增长及构建新发展格局的重要动力，是新一轮科技革命和产业变革背景下经济发展的新动能。数字经济通过提高生产要素资源配置效率，推动产业结构优化升级和供给侧结构性改革达到拉动国内需求，提高企业产品竞争力，实现国内国际双循环畅通的目的。因此，数字经济是构建新发展格局的重要抓手，厘清数字经济赋能新发展格局的机制和路径，对“十四五”时期高质量发展及共同富裕的实现有重要意义。

本文将数字经济与新发展格局纳入同一个分析框架中，定性分析了数字经济对新发展格局构建的直接效应、作用机制、异质性和空间效应并提出相应假设，定义了新发展格局的内涵并根据已有研究运用熵权法对新发展格局水平进行统计测度，综合运用Kernel密度函数、Dagum基尼系数及其分解、全局和局部Moran’s I的方法解析了中国新发展格局水平的时空演变特征。研究发现：我国新发展格局水平总体呈上升趋势，有轻微的多极化现象；新发展格局水平总体差异呈现波动中缓慢上升趋势，区域间差异是新发展格局水平总体差异的主要来源；新发展格局水平有明显的空间正自相关性和集聚现象。

最后，本文基于2011—2020年中国30个省市自治区（除港澳台、西藏）的面板数据，运用双向固定效应模型、面板门槛模型、中介效应模型、面板分位数模型和空间杜宾模型等计量模型对上文假设进行实证检验。研究发现：数字经济能显著提升地区新发展格局水平，其中，数字经济对生产、流通和消费环节均有显著的促进作用，对分配环节无显著影响；数字经济的赋能效用具有边际效应递增的非线性特征，数字经济可以通过要素市场化对新发展格局构建产生正向的促进作用；数字经济对新发展格局构建的促进作用存在显著的区域、维度和新发展格局水平上的异质性；数字经济对新发展格局水平的影响存在显著的空间抑制效应。

President Xi proposes to accelerate the formation of a new development pattern with the domestic systemic circulation as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other, which is a strategic decision made according to the changes in China's development stage, environment and conditions.The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China (CPC) pointed out that it is necessary to enhance the endogenous power and reliability of the domestic macro cycle, improve the quality and level of the international cycle, and accelerate the construction of a modern economic system. At the same time, the domestic digital economy still maintains a vigorous development trend, and has become an important driving force for China's economic growth and construction of a new development pattern. It is also a new driving force for economic development in the context of a new round of technological revolution and industrial transformation. By improving the efficiency of resource allocation of production factors, promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure and supply-side structural reform, the digital economy can stimulate domestic demand, improve the competitiveness of enterprises' products, and achieve the goal of smooth domestic and international dual circulation. Therefore, the digital economy is an important starting point for building a new development pattern. Clarifying the mechanisms and paths that enable the new development pattern in the digital economy can not only provide theoretical support for the development of China's digital economy and the construction of the new development pattern, but also have important significance for high-quality development and the realization of common prosperity during the "14th Five Year Plan" period.

This article brings the digital economy and the new development pattern into the same analytical framework, qualitatively analyzes the impact of the digital economy on the new development pattern from the perspective of the national economic cycle, explores the direct effects, mechanisms, heterogeneity, and spatial effects of the digital economy on the level of the new development pattern, and proposes corresponding assumptions. In the empirical research that follows, this article defines the connotation of the new development pattern and uses the entropy weight method to statistically measure the level of the new development pattern based on existing research. It comprehensively uses the Kernel density function, Dagum Gini coefficient and its decomposition, global and local Moran's I methods to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics of the level of China's new development pattern. The research finds that the overall level of China's new development pattern is on the rise, with a slight multi-polarization phenomenon, and the gap between the levels of the new development pattern among provinces is gradually expanding; Regional differences are the main source of overall differences in the level of the new development pattern; There is a significant spatial positive autocorrelation and agglomeration phenomenon at the level of the new development pattern.

Finally, based on panel data from 30 provinces, municipalities, and autonomous regions in China (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan, and Tibet) from 2011 to 2020, this paper empirically tests the corresponding assumptions using econometric models such as the two-way fixed effect model, the panel threshold model, the intermediary effect model, the panel quantile model, and the spatial Dubin model on the basis of the previous theory. The study found that the digital economy can significantly improve the level of the new regional development pattern, among which, the digital economy has a significant promoting effect on production, circulation, and consumption, but has no significant impact on distribution; The driving effect of the digital economy has a non-linear characteristic of increasing marginal effects. The digital economy can have a positive promoting effect on the new development pattern through the level of factor marketization; The promotion of the digital economy to the new development pattern has significant regional, dimensional, and level heterogeneity; The impact of the digital economy on the level of the new development pattern has a significant spatial inhibitory effect.