经济学院知识库

党的十九届五中全会指出，坚持稳中求进总工作基调，以推动国民经济高质量发展为主题，坚定不移地建设世界制造强国、质量强国战略不仅是我国经济社会发展的重点工作之一，也是实现我国经济高质量发展的重要环节，是建设社会主义现代化国家的必经之路。而就中国而言，自2000年开始步入老龄化社会以来，随着人口老龄化带来的人口红利消失、劳动年龄人口减少，人口老龄化的程度不断加深，“未富先老”和“未备先老”等问题也在逐步凸显，成为了当下政府和学者们普遍关注的问题。那人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展的影响又是如何呢？因此，为了使西部地区能够顺应人口老龄化趋势，更好的发展制造业，保持经济的平稳较快增长，研究西部地区人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展的影响具有非常重要的现实意义。

本文将国内外文献按照学者研究方法和研究对象的不同进行分类并加以阐述，对相关概念进行辨析，并进行实证检验后，得出以下结论：第一：西部地区65岁及以上老年人口规模在不断扩大，人口老龄化逐步加深；第二：西部地区制造业基础薄弱，制造业产业结构不合理，产品结构存在“三少三多”。根据西部地区制造业发展现状，本文理清人口老龄化对制造业高质量发展的内涵影响机理，运用2003-2020年西部地区省级面板数据和计算出的各省份制造业全要素生产率进行实证检验，对人口老龄化如何影响西部地区制造业高质量发展进行定性定量分析。结果表明人口老龄化对制造业全要素生产率具有负向影响，其次，通过引入人力资本投资、劳动力数量供给和资本积累三个中介变量后，依然显著。同时，人力资本投资和资本积累对制造业高质量发展也存在着显著影响。

最后，根据得到的结论，本文提出了几点应对人口老龄化和促进制造业高质量发展的建议，包括大力发展老年产业、加大高等教育投资、适当延迟退休年龄等政策建议，为我国产业区际转移提供思路。

The Fifth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee pointed out that adhering to the general keynote of seeking progress while maintaining stability, taking high-quality development as the theme, and unswervingly building a strong country in manufacturing and quality is not only one of the key tasks of China's economic and social development, but also an important link to achieve high-quality economic development, and the only way to build a modern socialist country. As for China, since the beginning of the aging society in 2000, with the disappearance of the demographic dividend brought by the aging population and the decrease of the working-age population, the degree of population aging has been deepening. Problems such as "getting old before getting rich" and "getting old before getting prepared" have also gradually emerged, which have become the common concern of the current government and scholars. What about the impact of an aging population on high-quality manufacturing? Therefore, in order to make the western region conform to the trend of population aging, better develop the manufacturing industry and maintain the steady and rapid economic growth, it is of great practical significance to study the influence of population aging on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in the western region.

This paper classifies and comments domestic and foreign literature according to different research methods and research objects of scholars, and analyzes related concepts. On this basis, the following conclusions are drawn: First, the elderly population aged 65 and above in the western region is constantly expanding, and the aging population is gradually deepening; Second, the manufacturing foundation in the western region is weak, and the product structure of the manufacturing industry is unreasonable. Based on the current development situation of manufacturing industry in western China, this paper clarified the influence mechanism of population aging on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry, conducted empirical test by using provincial panel data and total factor productivity of manufacturing industry in western China from 2003 to 2020, and conducted quantitative analysis on how population aging affects the high-quality development of manufacturing industry in western China. The results show that population aging has a negative impact on the total factor productivity of manufacturing industry. Secondly, it is still significant after the introduction of three intermediary variables: human capital investment, labor quantity supply and capital accumulation. At the same time, human capital investment and capital accumulation also have a significant impact on the high-quality development of manufacturing industry.

Finally, according to the conclusions obtained, this paper puts forward some suggestions to deal with the aging population and high-quality development of manufacturing industry, including vigorously developing the elderly industry, increasing investment in higher education, relaxing the birth policy, delaying the retirement age appropriately, etc., to provide ideas for inter-industrial transfer in our country, and provide suggestions for western development.