经济学院知识库

自上世纪90年代至今，我国社会保障体系已基本实现“制度全覆盖”，但在“人群全覆盖”方面还任重道远，除基本养老保险和职业年金外，企业年金和个人养老金的覆盖率及替代率都不甚理想，基于人口转型的背景和“多层次”社会保障体系建设的需要，本文建议引入集体固定缴费计划（Collective Defined Contribution plan，以下简称CDC），从筹资—缴费机制着手，提高我国企业年金的投资收益率、替代率及覆盖率。

基于企业年金的相关理论及概念，本文明确了CDC是结合福利确定型（Defined Benefit，以下简称DB）与缴费确定型（Defined Contribution，以下简称DC）特点的混合企业年金计划，基于CDC的诞生背景、运行机制及发展概况，分析了我国企业年金引入CDC的现实必要性。本文在实证第一部分根据马科维茨均值—方差模型利用Python的SciPy优化器求解出企业年金基金的最优投资组合，然后基于2006年10月至2022年4月的中国资本市场数据对多个CDC模型进行回溯测试，模拟结果显示CDC在十六年的时间范围内每年都能实现基本养老金的给付，并且九个CDC模型均能实现准备金的积累。基于实证第一部分的研究，第二部分利用Wolfram Mathematica 8软件对DC和CDC的替代率精算，精算结果显示在可预期的时间范围内CDC可以达到甚至超过DC的替代率。

最后，本文分析了中国企业年金引入CDC可能遇到的困难并提出了对应解决措施及具体路径建议：建议首先在法律上准入CDC，保证CDC享受现有企业年金计划的税收优惠额度；在企业着手路径方面，短期内依托大型国有企业的单一计划试点，后逐步向全行业、中小微企业的集合计划推行；完善CDC计划的信息披露机制及监管体系；简化企业加入年金计划的经办流程，优化年金运营服务，运用信息化手段线上线下多渠道宣传CDC，逐步提高企业年金计划的认可度和参与率，最终实现企业年金收益率、覆盖率及替代率的提升，充分发挥其在社会保障体系中的重要作用。

Since 1990s, China's social security system has basically achieved "full coverage of system", but there are heavy responsibilities in terms of "full coverage of population". In addition to basic pension insurance and occupational pension, the coverage and replacement rate of enterprise annuities and individual pensions are inadequate. Based on the background of demographic transition and the needs of constructing the multi-level  social security system, this paper suggests introducing the Collective Defined Contribution plan (hereinafter referred to as CDC) reforming of the mechanism of fund-raising and contribution in order to improving the return on investment, the rate of replacement and coverage.

On the basis of relevant theories and concepts, this paper clarifies that CDC is a mixed enterprise annuity plan that combines the characteristics of Defined Benefit plan (hereinafter referred to as DB) and Defined Contribution plan (hereinafter referred to as DC) analyzing the necessity of introducing CDC into China based on its birth background, operation mechanism and development status. In the first part of authentic proof, mean-variance model and SciPy optimizer are used to solve the optimal portfolio of enterprise annuity funds, and then backtesting multiple CDC models based on China's capital market data from October 2006 to April 2022. The simulation results show that CDC could pay basic pension every year during 16 years and nine CDC models could achieve reserve accumulation. Based on the previous empirical study, the second part uses Wolfram Mathematica 8 software to actuate DC and CDC replacement rates, and the results show that CDC can meet or even exceed DC on replacement rates within a predictable time.

Finally, this paper analyzes the difficulties that CDC may encounter in being introduced in China and puts forward corresponding solutions and suggestions from different perspectives. It is recommended to first legally access CDC to ensure that it enjoys existing tax credits. In terms of the path of enterprise startup, to begin with, we should rely on the single enterprise annuities of large state-owned enterprises and then gradually generalise collective plans in all industries and enterprises. It is also needed to simplify the process for enterprises to join CDC, optimize the operation service and use information technology to publicize it through online and offline channels, gradually improving its recognition and participation rate, and finally realizing it indispensable role in our social old-age security system.