经济学院知识库

近年来，中国经济稳中求进，多次成功抵御了国际金融危机、新冠疫情等突发状况，维持了本国经济的平稳运行。强大的经济韧性有助于经济系统在面对冲击时能够快速反应、积极应对，使经济运行恢复常态。对经济韧性问题的深入探讨为提高经济系统防范、抵御外来风险的能力提供了一种全新的视角，也为中国区域经济实现可持续性发展注入能量。

本文在相关文献的基础上，首先给出了经济韧性的定义，构建了我国经济韧性评价指标体系，运用熵权法计算了各省份经济韧性发展水平并进行排名。其次，分析了我国经济韧性的时空演变特征。再次，运用计量模型实证分析了我国经济韧性的主要影响因素并提出相应对策建议。本文得出如下结论：(1)从时序上看，我国经济韧性的整体水平呈上升趋势，在应对2008年全球金融危机以及2020年以来的新冠疫情冲击时也表现不俗。(2)从空间上看，我国经济韧性呈现出明显的空间分异特征：东部地区的经济韧性最高，中部地区次之，西部地区和东北地区较低。并且，我国经济韧性存在显著的空间集聚现象，东部地区始终表现为“H-H集聚”，而中部、西部以及东北地区的绝大多数省份表现为“L-L集聚”。(3)实证结果表明，产业结构升级、外商投资、基础设施建设对经济韧性具有显著的正向影响，城乡收入差距的扩大则会对经济韧性的提升产生抑制作用，四个解释变量对经济韧性的影响均具有不同程度的空间溢出效应。最后，从提升要素配置效率、推动产业结构升级，推进双循环发展格局、加快地区开放步伐，缩小城乡收入差距、推进共同富裕，加大交通基础设施投入、提升交通可达性等方面，提出了提升我国经济韧性的对策建议。

In recent years, the Chinese economy has sought progress while maintaining stability. It has successfully withstood the international financial crisis, COVID-19 and other emergencies and maintained a stable economic performance. Strong economic resilience will help the economic system respond quickly and actively to shocks and restore normal economic operations. The in-depth discussion of economic resilience provides a new perspective for improving the ability of the economic system to prevent and resist external risks, and also injects energy into the sustainable development of China's regional economy.

Firstly, on the basis of defining the connotation of economic resilience, this paper constructs a comprehensive index system of economic resilience, calculates the development level of economic resilience of each province by using the entropy weight method and ranks it. Secondly, it analyzes the space-time evolution characteristics of China's economic resilience through mathematical statistics. Thirdly, the econometric model is used to empirically analyze the main influencing factors of China's economic resilience, and put forward corresponding countermeasures and suggestions. The following conclusions are drawn: (1) From the perspective of time sequence, the overall level of China's economic resilience is on the rise, and it has also shown strong resilience in responding to the 2008 global financial crisis and the COVID-19 since 2020. (2) From the perspective of space, the economic resilience of China presents obvious spatial differentiation characteristics: the economic resilience of the eastern region is the highest, the central region is the second, and the western region and the northeast region are lower. Moreover, there is a significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon in the economic resilience of China. The eastern region has always been shown as "H-H agglomeration", while most provinces in the central, western and northeastern regions are shown as "L-L agglomeration". (3) The empirical results show that the upgrading of industrial structure, foreign investment and infrastructure construction have a significant positive impact on economic resilience, while the expansion of urban-rural income gap will inhibit the improvement of economic resilience. And the four explanatory variables have different degrees of spatial spillover effects on economic resilience. Finally, throw out corresponding countermeasures and suggestions to promote the resilience of our economic from the following four aspects. Improve the efficiency of factor allocation and promote the upgrading of industrial structure; Promote the dual-cycle development pattern and speed up regional opening up; Narrow the income gap between urban and rural areas and promote common prosperity; Increase investment in transportation infrastructure and improve transportation accessibility.