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社会保障既要保障国民面临退休、生病、失业等风险时的基本生活，又要调节社会收入，促进经济增长。社会保障水平是评价社会保障制度运行效率的重要量化指标，本文主要利用这一指标，以湖南省2006-2020年相关数据为基础，对湖南省社会保障制度运行情况进行定量分析。

本文首先引入社会保障水平测定模型以及社会保障适度水平相关理论并确定了相关统计口径。其次，对湖南省社会保障支出现状基本数据梳理总结，运用实证研究方法对湖南省社会保障总支出以及各项支出分别进行分析得出：医疗保险与养老保险占社会保险基金总支出比重较大。随着时间的推移，湖南省的社会保障支出呈现出明显的上升趋势，而这种增长趋势远远超过了财政支出的增长。经过系统的研究，我们发现湖南省的社会保障水平远低于全国平均水平，城乡社会保障水平差距大，但是社会保障水平增长速度一直快于经济增长速度。经过研究发现近十五年来，湖南省社会保障水平处于社会保障适度水平下限。然后根据第七次人口普查数据应用 Leslie 矩阵模型，对湖南省未来社会保障水平进行预测。预测结果为湖南省65岁以上老年人口比重将于2050年达到峰值，并根据预测结果对湖南省社会保障适度发展提出对策。

Social security should not only protect people's basic livelihood when facing risks such as retirement, illness and unemployment, but also regulate social income and promote economic growth. Social security level is an important quantitative index to evaluate the operational efficiency of social security system. Based on the relevant data of Hunan Province from 2006 to 2020, this paper mainly uses this index to conduct a quantitative analysis of the operation of social security system in Hunan Province.

This paper firstly introduces the measurement model of social security level and the relevant theory of social security moderate level and determines the relevant statistical caliber. Secondly, the basic data of social security expenditure in Hunan Province is summarized, and the empirical research method is used to analyze the total expenditure of social security in Hunan Province and various expenditures respectively. It is concluded that medical insurance and pension insurance account for a large proportion of the total expenditure of social insurance fund. With the passage of time, social security expenditure in Hunan Province has shown an obvious upward trend, and this growth trend far exceeds the growth of fiscal expenditure. Through systematic research, we found that the level of social security in Hunan Province is far lower than the national average level, and the gap between urban and rural social security level is large, but the growth rate of social security level has been faster than the economic growth rate. It is found that the social security level of Hunan Province from 2006 to 2020 is at the lower limit of the moderate level of social security. Then, according to the data of the seventh census, the Leslie matrix model is applied to predict the future social security level of Hunan Province. The prediction result is that the proportion of the elderly population over 65 years old in Hunan Province will reach the peak in 2050, and according to the prediction result, the appropriate development of social security in Hunan Province is proposed.