统计与数据科学学院知识库

随着经济的发展和生活水平的提升以及城镇化进程的加快，对交通的需求越来越大，期望值越来越高，而近年来城市私人汽车增长快、交通拥堵、交通安全隐患增加等问题，在一定程度上阻碍了城市的发展，影响了社会效益。在国家治理现代化要求下，评价交通治理工作和治理能力对城市交通畅通的影响，反映城市交通运行的畅通程度，指导城市未来交通发展的方向，需要有一套科学的评价指标体系和评价方法。因此，构建城市交通治理能力现代化评价指标体系，科学评估城市交通治理能力现代化水平具有重要意义。

在此背景下，本文从国内外相关研究的梳理和评价入手，阐释了城市交通治理能力现代化的理论基础和现实依据，据此构建由交通体系高效性、交通网络安全性、交通环境健康性和交通发展公平性四个子系统组成的城市交通治理能力现代化水平的评价指标体系。选取东中西三个区域发展水平不同的34个城市为研究对象，采取综合评价模型来评价2015-2020年城市的交通治理能力现代化发展水平，并进一步研究了它们的时空演变特征和制约城市交通治理能力现代化发展的障碍因子。

通过研究得出以下结论：（1）城市交通治理能力现代化指标评价体系具有良好的效果，所得出的结论符合城市交通治理能力的实际情况，在研究思路、研究方法方面具备可实现性和可行性。（2）城市交通治理能力现代化水平总体呈现上升趋势。北京、上海、广州、深圳四个城市的评价综合得分最高，所以经济作为城市发展的重要基础，是城市交通治理能力现代化最有力的保障。（3）轨道交通是制约城市交通治理能力现代化发展的主要原因。其次，环境质量、交通建设投资、公共汽电车等因素也是影响交通治理能力现代化发展水平的重要因素。基于此本文从完善城市交通科学发展规划，优先发展公共交通，加强城市交通环境保护和资源利用三个方面提出提高城市交通治理能力现代化发展的建议。

With the development of economy, the improvement of living standards and the acceleration of urbanization, people's demand for transportation is growing and their expectations are getting higher and higher. In recent years, a series of problems, such as the rapid growth of urban private cars, serious traffic congestion, increasing traffic safety risks, environmental and ecological deterioration, and excessive energy consumption, have hindered urban development and affected social benefits to a certain extent. Under the requirements of the modernization of national governance, a set of scientific evaluation index system and evaluation method is needed to evaluate the influence of traffic governance work and governance ability on the smooth flow of urban traffic, reflect the smooth flow of urban traffic operation, and guide the direction of the future development of urban traffic. Therefore, it is of great significance to construct the evaluation index system of urban traffic governance ability modernization and evaluate the modernization level of urban traffic governance ability scientifically.

In this context, starting from the review and evaluation of relevant domestic and foreign studies, this paper explains the theoretical basis and practical basis of the modernization of urban traffic governance capability, and constructs an evaluation index system of the modernization level of urban traffic governance capability, which is composed of four subsystems, namely, the efficiency of traffic system, the safety of traffic network, the health of traffic environment and the fairness of traffic development. Thirty-four cities with different development levels in East China and West China were selected as research objects, and the comprehensive evaluation model was adopted to evaluate the modernized development level of urban traffic governance capacity from 2015 to 2020, and the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and the obstacle factors restricting the modernized development of urban traffic governance capacity were further studied.

Through the research, the following conclusions are drawn: (1) The evaluation system of urban traffic governance capability modernization index has a good effect, and the conclusions are in line with the actual situation of urban traffic governance capability, and have the realizability and feasibility in terms of research ideas and methods. (2) The overall modernization level of urban traffic management capacity presents an upward trend. Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen have the highest comprehensive scores in the evaluation. Therefore, economy, as an important basis for urban development, is the most powerful guarantee for the modernization of urban traffic governance capacity. (3) Rail transit is the main reason that restricts the modernization of urban traffic governance capacity. Secondly, environmental quality, transportation construction investment, public trams and other factors are also important factors affecting the modernization of traffic management capacity. Based on this, this paper puts forward suggestions to improve the modern development of urban traffic management ability from three aspects: improving the scientific development planning of urban traffic, giving priority to the development of public transport, strengthening the protection of urban traffic environment and the utilization of resources.