国际经济与贸易学院知识库

黄河自古以来被誉为中华民族的母亲河，拥有天然生态廊道和多个重点生态功能区，在国家经济发展和生态安全方面占据重要地位，建设好这道安全屏障尤为关键。在过去的四十多年里，工业化的飞速发展带来了显著的社会进步和区域经济繁荣，但也造成流域产业层次水平低下和环境污染等问题。

党的二十大报告强调，实现高质量发展的关键是推动经济社会往绿色低碳方向发展，生态环境保护的重要着力点要落在持续推进产业结构、能源结构等的调整优化上。换言之，三次产业的比例结构和产业内生产要素的配置状态决定了生态效率的高低。环境监管作为政府主要的生态管理措施，不仅能够改善生态质量提升绿色发展水平，还可以通过合理配置资源和技术创新引导产业结构向合理化与高级化方向升级，形成环境、产业与经济多赢的局面。因此，以产业结构合理化和高级化对生态效率的影响为基础，如何充分发挥环境规制的调节效应值得深入探索。

首先，本文界定了环境规制、产业结构升级、生态效率三者的内涵，在理论基础上，厘清产业结构合理化与高级化对生态效率的传导机制以及环境规制在产业结构升级影响生态效率过程中的调节效应。其次，重点分析了黄河流域9省区环境规制、产业结构升级的演变趋势，采用包含非期望产出的Super-SBM模型和GML指数详细测算了各区域生态效率的静动态变化趋势。再次，通过莫兰指数检验生态效率的空间相关性，分析生态效率的集聚状态。实证部分构建空间杜宾模型，用以检验黄河流域9省区2000-2020年产业结构合理化与高级化对生态效率的空间影响，加入交互项来检验环境规制的调节效应如何。最后，将黄河流域分为上中下游，探究产业结构升级对生态效率是否存在区域异质性。

本文的主要研究结论是：（1）产业结构合理化显著促进了本地和邻地的生态效率，表现出“正外溢性”。（2）产业结构的高级化可以明显提高本区域生态效率，对周边地区的影响不显著。（3）环境规制对生态效率的直接效应显著为正，间接效应不显著。（4）环境规制与产业结构合理化的交互项为正但不显著，且环境规制削弱了产业结构合理化对周边地区生态效率的促进作用。（5）环境规制在产业结构高级化影响生态效率的过程中存在显著负向调节效应，且强化了产业结构高级化对邻近地区生态效率的抑制作用。最后，本文从优化产业结构、完善环境规制政策、建立区域统筹协调机制，加强对外经济合作等角度提出切实可行的政策建议。

Since ancient times, the Yellow River has been known as the mother river of the Chinese nation, with natural ecological corridors and multiple key ecological function areas. It occupies an important position in national economic development and ecological security, and building this safety barrier is particularly crucial. In the past forty years, the rapid development of industrialization has brought significant social progress and regional economic prosperity, but it has also caused problems such as low industrial level and environmental pollution in the river basin.

The report of the 20th National Congress of the Communist Party of China emphasizes that the key to achieving high-quality development is to promote the development of the economy and society towards a green and low-carbon direction, and the important focus of ecological environmental protection should be on continuously promoting the adjustment and optimization of the industrial structure and energy structure. In other words, the proportional structure of the three industries and the allocation of production factors within the industry determine the level of ecological efficiency. As the main ecological management measure of the government, environmental supervision can not only improve ecological quality and promote green development level, but also guide the industrial structure to upgrade towards rationalization and advancement through rational allocation of resources and technological innovation, forming a win-win situation for the environment, industry, and economy. Therefore, based on the impact of rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure on ecological efficiency, it is worth exploring how to fully exert the regulatory effect of environmental regulations.

Firstly, this article defines the connotation of environmental regulation, industrial structure upgrading, and ecological efficiency. On the theoretical basis, it clarifies the transmission mechanism of industrial structure rationalization and upgrading on ecological efficiency, as well as the regulatory effect of environmental regulation in the process of industrial structure upgrading affecting ecological efficiency. Secondly, the evolution trend of environmental regulations and industrial structure upgrading in 9 provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin was analyzed, and the static and dynamic changes in ecological efficiency in each region were calculated in detail using the Super-SBM model including unexpected outputs and the GML index. Thirdly, the spatial correlation of ecological efficiency is tested through the Moran index, and the agglomeration state of ecological efficiency is analyzed. The empirical part constructs a spatial Durbin model to test the spatial impact of rationalization and upgrading of industrial structure on ecological efficiency in the nine provinces and regions of the Yellow River Basin from 2000 to 2020, and adds interactive terms to test the regulatory effect of environmental regulation. Finally, divide the Yellow River basin into upper, middle, and lower reaches to explore whether there is regional heterogeneity in the impact of industrial structure upgrading on ecological efficiency.

The main research conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) The rationalization of industrial structure has significantly promoted the ecological efficiency of local and neighboring regions, showing "positive spillover". (2) The upgrading of industrial structure can significantly improve the ecological efficiency of the region, but its impact on surrounding areas is not significant. (3) The direct effect of environmental regulation on ecological efficiency is significantly positive, while the indirect effect is not significant. (4) The interaction between environmental regulation and industrial structure rationalization is positive but not significant, and environmental regulation weakens the promotion of industrial structure rationalization on the ecological efficiency of neighboring areas. (5) Environmental regulation has a significant negative regulatory effect on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on ecological efficiency, and environmental regulation has strengthened the inhibition effect of industrial structure upgrading on ecological efficiency in neighboring areas.Finally, this article proposes practical and feasible policy recommendations from the perspectives of optimizing industrial structure, improving environmental regulatory policies,establishing regional coordination mechanisms,and strengthening foreign economic cooperation.