统计与数据科学学院知识库

实体经济是立国之本，也是我国实现经济高质量发展和构筑未来发展战略优势的重要支撑。当前，我国经济存在着资金流向虚拟经济的比例在不断提高，而流向实体经济的资金比例持续减少的问题，经济呈现出“脱实向虚”，实体经济企业面临严重的“融资难、融资贵”难题，同时我国着力于构建新发展格局与建设现代化经济体系，正处于转变经济发展方式和转换经济增长动力的关键时期，必须坚持推动实体经济发展，把发展经济的着力点放在实体经济上。

金融是现代实体经济的核心和血脉，与实体经济共生共荣。数字技术的运用及其与传统普惠金融的深度融合，使得作为新金融业态的数字普惠金融在以往传统金融的基础上拓展了应用场景，提高了金融资源的流动性与可获得性，降低了企业融资成本，企业融资需求得到改善，在推动我国实体经济的发展中起到至关重要的作用。因此，研究数字普惠金融对实体经济的影响对进一步提振实体经济和促进经济高质量发展具有重要意义。

本文首先梳理了近年来学者们对数字普惠金融与实体经济的相关研究，然后界定数字普惠金融与实体经济的概念和介绍理论基础，分析数字普惠金融对实体经济发展的影响机制，提出本文的研究假设，在此基础上运用2011-2020年我国31个省份的面板数据，构建面板门槛模型和空间杜宾模型探究数字普惠金融对实体经济的影响效应，研究结果表明：

第一，数字普惠金融能显著正向促进实体经济的发展，三个子维度中覆盖广度起主要促进作用，产生的影响最大，其次是使用深度，而数字化程度最小。数字普惠金融发展水平的提高能明显促进中、东、西部实体经济发展，对西部地区的促进作用高于东部和中部。

第二，数字普惠金融对实体经济发展的影响存在单一门槛效应。数字普惠金融对实体经济发展的正向影响存在边际效应递增趋势，数字普惠金融在更高阈值内对实体经济发展的正向促进作用更强。三个子维度与实体经济发展之间存在均存在明显的非线性关系但是存在差异，其中覆盖广度对实体经济发展的影响存在单一门槛效应，随着覆盖广度的提高，其对实体经济发展促进作用增大；而使用深度和数字化程度对实体经济发展的作用存在双重门槛，随着数字化程度的提高，其对实体经济发展促进作用逐渐减小。

第三，数字普惠金融对实体经济发展的影响存在空间效应。本地区数字普惠金融的发展对本地区的实体经济发展会产生促进作用，但是对邻近地区实体经济的发展会产生抑制作用，即数字普惠金融的发展存在“虹吸效应”。从数字普惠金融的三个维度来看，覆盖广度对本区域实体经济具有显著正向影响，但是对邻近区域实体经济会产生负向影响。

最后，结合研究结果从各个角度提出相关建议，以期能促进实体经济更好更快发展。

The real economy is the foundation of the country and an important support for China to achieve high-quality economic development and build strategic advantages for future development. At present, the proportion of capital flowing to the virtual economy is increasing, while the proportion of capital flowing to the real economy is decreasing, and the economy is showing a "de-realisation towards deficiency", with enterprises in the real economy facing serious difficulties in financing and expensive financing. At the same time, China is focusing on building a new development pattern and constructing a modern economic system, and is at a critical period of transforming the mode of economic development and changing the dynamics of economic growth, so we must insist on promoting the development of the real economy and putting the focus of economic development on the real economy.

Finance is the core and bloodline of the modern real economy and is symbiotic with the real economy. The use of digital technology and its deep integration with traditional inclusive finance has enabled digital inclusive finance as a new financial industry to expand the application scenarios based on the previous traditional finance, improve the liquidity and accessibility of financial resources, reduce the cost of corporate financing and improve the financing needs of enterprises, playing a vital role in promoting the development of China's real economy. Therefore, it is important to study the impact of digital inclusive finance on the real economy in order to further boost the real economy and promote high-quality economic development.

This paper firstly composes the relevant studies on digital inclusive finance and the real economy by scholars in recent years, then defines the concept and introduces the theoretical basis of digital inclusive finance and the real economy, analyses the impact mechanism of digital inclusive finance on the development of the real economy, puts forward the research hypothesis of this paper, and on this basis uses the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 2011 to 2020 to construct a panel threshold model and a spatial Durbin model to explore the impact effect of digital inclusive finance on the real economy, the research results show that:

Firstly, digital inclusive finance can significantly and positively contribute to the development of the real economy, with the breadth of coverage playing the main contributing role and generating the largest impact among the three sub-dimensions, followed by the depth of use and the smallest degree of digitisation. The increase in the level of development of digital inclusive finance can significantly contribute to the development of the real economy in the central, eastern and western regions, with a higher contribution to the western region than to the eastern and central regions.

Secondly, there is a single threshold effect on the impact of digital inclusive finance on the development of the real economy. The positive impact of digital inclusive finance on real economic development has a tendency of increasing marginal effects, and digital inclusive finance has a stronger positive promotion effect on real economic development within a higher threshold. There is a non-linear relationship between all three sub-dimensions and real economic development, with a single threshold effect for breadth of coverage, which gradually increases as the breadth of coverage increases, and a double threshold effect for depth of use and digitalisation, which gradually decreases as the degree of digitalisation increases. Thirdly, the role of digital inclusion in the development of the real economy has been increasing.

Thirdly, there is a spatial effect on the impact of digital inclusive finance on the development of the real economy. The development of digital inclusive finance in the region will have a catalytic effect on the development of the real economy in the region, but will have a suppressive effect on the development of the real economy in neighbouring regions, there is a "siphon effect" on the development of digital inclusive finance. From the three dimensions of digital inclusive finance, the breadth of coverage has a significant positive impact on the real economy of the region, but has a negative impact on the real economy of the neighbouring regions.

Finally, the study results are combined with relevant recommendations from various perspectives, with a view to promoting better and faster development of the real economy.