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新能源汽车产业在近年发展十分迅速，而新能源汽车产业中的核心部分——动力电池行业，在国家政策的支持以及对新能源汽车需求越来越高的背景下，发展速度十分惊人。宁德时代就是一家动力电池系统制造商，近年来不断进行扩张，增长速度很快，一跃成为全球动力电池系统供应商中的佼佼者。在这样高速增长的发展模式下，企业更应该关注其发展的可持续性以及背后可能面临的风险，因此，探讨其可持续增长是非常重要的。

本文聚焦于宁德时代的可持续增长研究，首先，在研读相关文献的基础上对可持续增长理论模型形成认知，并对可持续增长相关概念和理论进行界定和介绍；其次，论述整个案例背景，对宁德时代的宏观环境以及增长状况进行分析；再次，根据宁德时代实际情况选择重构希金斯模型计算可持续增长率，对可持续增长率的驱动因素进行敏感性分析；紧接着，将实际增长率与可持续增长率进行对比，分析其可持续增长状况，并对可持续增长率驱动因素所反映的企业经营效率、财务政策状况等进行分析，找出还需改善的地方；然后，根据前文分析指出宁德时代可持续增长存在的问题，并针对其问题提出一些可能有用的建议；最后，总结出本文的结论与不足。

经过分析，2017年以来宁德时代的实际增长率与可持续增长率存在一定的差距，并呈现出由超速增长到增长不足的趋势，同时，其增长速度波动较大，也存在盈利能力下降、存货周转率下降、过度融资倾向的问题，整体来看其可持续增长能力还需进一步提升。

The new energy vehicle industry has developed rapidly in recent years, and the core part of the new energy vehicle industry —— power battery industry, under the support of national policies and the increasing demand for new energy vehicles, the development speed is amazing. CATL is a power battery system supplier. In recent years, it has been expanding continuously and developing rapidly, and it has become the leader in the global power battery system suppliers. In such a rapid development model, enterprises should pay more attention to the sustainability of their development and the risks they may face behind it. Therefore, it is very important to explore its sustainable growth.

This paper focuses on the study of sustainable growth in the CATL, first, Develop cognition of theoretical models of sustainable growth on the basis of reading relevant literature, And to define and introduce the relevant concepts and theories of sustainable growth; next, Discuss the whole case context, Analyze the macro environment and growth situation of CATL; once more, According to the actual situation of CATL, the reconstructed Higgins model to calculate the sustainable growth rate, Sensitivity analysis of the drivers of the sustainable growth rate; on top of, Compare the real growth rate with the sustainable growth rate, Analyze its sustainable growth status, And analyze the operating efficiency and financial policy status of enterprises reflected by the drivers of sustainable growth rate, Find out where you need to improve; then, According to the previous analysis points out the problems of sustainable growth in CATL, And put forward some potentially useful suggestions for its problems; last, Summarize the conclusions and shortcomings of this paper.

After analysis, since 2017, CATL of actual growth rate and sustainable growth rate there is a certain gap, and presents the trend of speeding growth to insufficient growth, at the same time, its growth volatility, there are falling profitability, inventory turnover, excessive financing tendency, overall its sustainable growth ability still need to further improve.