统计与数据科学学院知识库

目前国际形势多变，部分国家受新冠疫情影响而大搞单边主义和贸易保护措施，国际贸易交流锐减，全球治理体系面临挑战。我国作为疫情期间仍保持经济正增长的主要经济体之一，依然坚持对外开放的基本国策不动摇，并提出要“加快构建以国内大循环为主体、国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局”，“发展更高层次的开放型经济”。基于此，本文从双循环背景及经济高质量发展方向出发，阐述分析开放型经济体制当今时代背景发展的内涵，利用2011年至2020年中国省际数据，从开放经济、开放规模、开放结构、开放潜力4个维度构建指标体系对我国31个省份近十年来的开放型经济发展水平进行测度，利用探索性空间分析方法分析其空间相关性，并通过Kernel密度估计观测其演进特征，在此基础上，采用Dagum基尼系数分解探究我国不同区域化分中各地区差异及其来源，了解到各地区差异后，分析其是否满足验证经济收敛假说情况，并基于本文研究内容给出合理可行的政策建议。

研究发现：1、我国开放型经济发展存在地区性差异，总体表现为东部地区优于中西部地区，沿海地区优于内陆地区。2、我国开放型经济在2011年至2019年间发展平稳且地区差异缩小，但受到2020年新冠疫情打击严重。3、我国开放型经济差异主要来源于区域间差异。4、我国开放型经济未呈现显著收敛趋势，大部分地区符合收敛机制。

At present, the international situation is changing. Some countries, affected by the COVID-19, are engaged in unilateralism and trade protection measures. International trade exchanges have declined sharply, and the global governance system is facing challenges. As one of the major economies that still maintained positive economic growth during the epidemic, China remains unswervingly committed to the basic national policy of opening to the outside world, and proposes to "accelerate the construction of a new development pattern with domestic macro circulation as the main body and domestic and international dual circulation promoting each other", and "develop a higher level of open economy". Based on this, this paper starts from the background of double circulation and the direction of high-quality economic development, elaborates and analyzes the connotation of the development of the open economic system in the current era, and uses the data from 2011 to 2020 among provinces in China to build an indicator system from four dimensions of open economy, open scale, open structure, and open potential to measure the development level of the open economy in 31 provinces in China in the past decade, The exploratory spatial analysis method is used to analyze its spatial correlation, and the Kernel density estimation is used to observe its evolution characteristics. On this basis, the Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition is used to explore the regional differences and their sources in different regionalization sub regions in China. After understanding the regional differences, the analysis is conducted to determine whether they meet the hypothesis of economic convergence, and reasonable and feasible policy recommendations are given based on the research content of this paper.

The research finds that: 1. There are regional differences in the development of China's open economy. The overall performance is that the eastern region is superior to the central and western regions, and the coastal region is superior to the inland region. 2. China's open economy developed steadily and regional differences narrowed between 2011 and 2019, but it was severely hit by the COVID-19 in 2020. 3. The differences of China's open economy mainly come from regional differences. 4. China's open economy does not show a significant convergence trend, and most regions conform to the convergence mechanism.