作者蔡雨峰
姓名汉语拼音Cai Yufeng
学号2020000003008
培养单位兰州财经大学
电话15580972300
电子邮件455953008@qq.com
入学年份2020-9
学位类别学术硕士
培养级别硕士研究生
学科门类理学
一级学科名称统计学
学科方向统计学
学科代码0714Z3
第一导师姓名艾明要
第一导师姓名汉语拼音Ai Mingyao
第一导师单位北京大学
第一导师职称教授
题名我国省域可持续发展能力综合评价分析
英文题名Analysis of Comprehensive Evaluation of Sustainable Development Capability of Provinces in China
关键词可持续发展能力 最优尾部选择 阈值选取 TOPSIS
外文关键词Sustainable Development Capability;Optimal tail selection; Threshold selection;TOPSIS
摘要

自工业革命以来,人类科学技术得到了突飞猛进的发展,随着科技的进步,
人类生产、生活方式也产生了翻天覆地的变化,随之而来的是对各种自然资源的
需求与日俱增,亟待一种新的可持续发展模式来解决人类社会与自然环境之间的
冲突。我国拥有着约九百六十万平方公里的国土面积,幅员辽阔,包含多种地势
地貌,拥有着丰富的自然资源,各省应当主动探索切合自身实际情况的可持续发
展战略。如何在发展过程中及时评估现状,进一步提高政府的现代化管理水平,
就需要一种行之有效的方法来衡量各省域的可持续发展水平。这对各省乃至全国
提高可持续发展能力具有重要意义。
本文首先介绍了可持续发展理念提出的背景及其发展历程,并介绍了如何衡
量可持续发展的水平。接着,对国内外可持续发展研究现状进行了分析,总结了
一些具有参考价值的观点,重点强调了可持续发展能力的核心在于实现经济、社
会和环境三方面的全面发展。根据现有专家学者研究表明,在对人类日常经济社
会活动的研究中,会经常出现极端观测值,如果直接用于研究可能会对结果产生
影响,为了消除这些极端值带来的影响,本文从几种最优尾部选择方法中选取了
最合适的两种方法来确定阈值;再用基于Oja中位数向量的修正中值标准化方法
来抵抗数据分布的不对称性,主要是数据分布的正偏态性;最后用优劣解距离法
(TOPSIS)得出各省份可持续发展能力指标,使最终结果较为科学、可靠。
本文引入全国范围内各省份2009-2020 年十二年的数据进行研究,然后基于
各省份地区目前发展现状以及指标体系结果进行综合评价,揭示各省份在
2009-2020 年发展情况,分析各地区在持续发展过程中的优势与不足。从结果看
来,我国东南沿海地区发展水平较高,包括经济、社会两个方面,然而从环境方
面看来由于发达的工业以及人口高度集中等因素,这些地区面临的环境治理压力
也更大,总的来说,我国省域可持续发展能力呈现出由东南沿海向内陆逐渐降低
的趋势。随后探讨性地为部分地区给出提高可持续发展水平的对策建议,制定合
理的城市可持续发展规划,有助于更好的提高地区可持续发展的水平。

英文摘要

Since the Industrial Revolution, human science and technology have
made remarkable advances. With technological progress, there have been
tremendous changes in human production and lifestyle. Alongside these
changes, the demand for various natural resources has increased
exponentially, necessitating a new sustainable development model to
address the conflicts between human society and the natural environment.
China, with its vast land area of approximately 9.6 million square
kilometers, diverse topography, and abundant natural resources, should
actively explore sustainable development strategies that are tailored to its
own circumstances. To assess the current situation during the
development process and further improve the government's modern
management capabilities, an effective method is needed to measure the
sustainable development level of each province. This is of great
significance for enhancing the overall sustainable development capacity
of each province and the entire country.
This article first introduces the background and development process
of the concept of sustainable development and discusses how to measure
the level of sustainable development. It then analyzes the current research
status of sustainable development both domestically and internationally,
summarizing some valuable viewpoints. It emphasizes that the core of
sustainable development capacity lies in achieving comprehensive
兰州财经大学硕士学位论文我国省域可持续发展能力综合评价分析
III
development in the economic, social, and environmental aspects. Based
on existing research by experts and scholars, it is evident that extreme
outliers frequently appear in the study of human daily economic and
social activities. Using them directly in research may affect the results. To
eliminate the influence of these extreme values, this article selects the
most suitable methods from several optimal tail selection methods to
determine the threshold. It then uses the Modified Median
Standardization method based on the Oja median vector to address the
asymmetry of data distribution, primarily the positive skewness of data
distribution. Finally, the Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to
Ideal Solution (TOPSIS) is used to derive the sustainable development
capacity indicators for each province, ensuring that the final results are
scientific and reliable.
This article introduces data from all provinces in China for the
twelve-year period from 2009 to 2020. Based on the current development
status of each province and the results of the indicator system, a
comprehensive evaluation is conducted to reveal the development
situation of each province from 2009 to 2020 and analyze the strengths
and weaknesses of each region in the process of sustainable development.
The results show that the southeastern coastal regions of China have
higher levels of development in terms of economy and society. However,
in terms of the environment, these regions face greater pressure in terms
兰州财经大学硕士学位论文我国省域可持续发展能力综合评价分析
IV
of environmental governance due to factors such as developed industries
and high population concentration. Overall, the sustainable development
capacity of provincial regions in China exhibits a gradual decrease from
the southeastern coastal areas to the inland regions. Subsequently, this
article provides some exploratory recommendations to improve the level
of sustainable development in certain regions, such as formulating
rational urban sustainable development plans, which will contribute to
enhancing the level of sustainable development in those areas.

学位类型硕士
答辩日期2023-05
学位授予地点甘肃省兰州市
语种中文
论文总页数59
参考文献总数62
馆藏号0004816
保密级别公开
中图分类号O212/26
文献类型学位论文
条目标识符http://ir.lzufe.edu.cn/handle/39EH0E1M/34220
专题统计与数据科学学院
推荐引用方式
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蔡雨峰. 我国省域可持续发展能力综合评价分析[D]. 甘肃省兰州市. 兰州财经大学,2023.
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