统计与数据科学学院知识库

  高质量发展是时下热点之一，二十大报告中更是将高质量发展提为首要任务。深化财税体制改革是高质量发展的重点之一。黄河流域生态环境脆弱，区域间要素差异大，传统产业改造升级滞后，内生动力不足，在如今经济发展的背景下，产业尤其是农业产业的转型发展迫在眉睫。事实和经验表明，在我国财政分权的背景下，地方政府在经济中拥有更大的决策权和自主权。本文的重点是考察财政分权与黄河流域农业高质量发展水平之间的关系。财政分权体制作为改革开放以来促进经济增长的重要制度性因素，对解决黄河流域农业发展问题、实现经济发展方式转变、提高可持续发展能力具有重要作用。

  首先，本文综述了国内外相关研究现状，将农业全要素生产率作为黄河流域农业高质量发展水平的测度指标，使用超效率DEA模型测算了农业全要素生产率，并运用空间杜宾模型对2009-2020年中国黄河流域沿线八个省（市、区）的财政分权指标和农业高质量发展之间存在的关系进行了研究分析。基于此，本文建立了财政分权与农业全要素生产率的空间杜宾模型，采用农业全要素生产率为被解释变量，分别以财政自主度和支出分权为解释变量，再选取金融信贷水平、工业化水平、教育程度以及市场化程度作为控制变量，研究财政分权对农业全要素生产率的作用。研究发现：（1）基于财政自主度，财政分权对于黄河流域全流域农业全要素生产率存在正向的直接效应和溢出效应；（2）支出角度下，财政分权对黄河流域各省份农业全要素生产率存在抑制作用。

  本论文的创新之处主要体现在两点。财政作为国家治理体系和治理能力现代化的重要组成部分，必须适应新形势、满足人民日益增长的美好生活需要。因而首先明确财政分权对农业全要素生产率直接和间接作用的差异，充实了高质量发展有关理论；其次运用空间杜宾模型证明财政分权对于农业全要素生产率具有整体效应和空间效应，对比分析不同分权指标作用的空间差异性。

    High-quality development is one of the hot spots nowadays, and the top 20 reports put high-quality development as the top priority. Deepening reform of the fiscal and taxation systems is one of the priorities for high-quality development. The ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin is fragile, the factors between regions are very different, the transformation and upgrading of traditional industries lag behind, and the endogenous power is insufficient. Under the background of current economic development, the transformation and development of industries, especially the agricultural industry, is imminent. Facts and experience show that under the background of fiscal decentralization in China, local governments have greater decision-making power and autonomy in the economy. This thesis focuses on the relationship between fiscal decentralization and high quality agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin. Fiscal decentralization system, as an important institutional factor to promote economic growth since the reform and opening up, plays an important role in solving the problem of agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin, realizing the transformation of economic development mode, and improving the ability of sustainable development.

    First of all, this thesis reviewed the relevant research status at home and abroad, took agricultural total factor productivity as an indicator to measure the level of high-quality agricultural development in the Yellow River Basin, and used the super-efficiency DEA model to measure agricultural total factor productivity. The relationship between fiscal decentralization indicators and high-quality agricultural development in eight provinces (municipalities and districts) along the Yellow River Basin in China from 2009 to 2020 was studied and analyzed by using the spatial Durbin model. Based on this, this thesis established a spatial Dubin model of fiscal decentralization and agricultural TFP. With agricultural TFP as the explained variables, fiscal autonomy and expenditure decentralization as explanatory variables, and financial credit level, industrialization level, education level and marketization level as control variables, this thesis studied the effects of fiscal decentralization on agricultural TFP. The results show that: (1) Based on fiscal autonomy, fiscal decentralization has positive direct and spillover effects on agricultural total factor productivity in the Yellow River Basin; (2) From the perspective of expenditure, fiscal decentralization has an inhibitory effect on agricultural total factor productivity in the provinces of the Yellow River Basin.

    The innovation of this thesis is mainly reflected in two points. As an important part of the modernization of the country's governance system and governance capacity, finance must adapt to the new situation and meet the people's ever-growing needs for a better life. Therefore, the difference of direct and indirect effects of fiscal decentralization on agricultural total factor productivity was clarified, and the theory of high-quality development was enriched. Secondly, the spatial Durbin model is used to prove that fiscal decentralization has overall and spatial effects on agricultural total factor productivity, and the spatial differences of different decentralization indicators are compared and analyzed.