会计学院知识库

在房子是用来住的，不是用来炒的大背景下，我国的长租公寓行业得到长远的发展，但是在其发展过程，面临着融资难题，REITs的出现为解决这一难题提供了解决方案。自从2014年第一只私募 REITs在中国发行后，REITs市场步入快速发展期，REITs不但为很多房地产企业提供了融资渠道，而且还为金融市场提供了高质量的投资产品，其价值已经成为了发行方和投资者都共同关心的问题。因此，本文选择民营企业第一单长租公寓REITs－旭辉瓴寓REITs为研究案例，研究长租公寓REITs价值的评估方法，探索长租公寓融资发展新渠道。

本文首先对国内外研究进行梳理，以房地产租金和REITs的相关理论为基础，对评估REITs价值的两种方法进行了比较，发现营运资金现金流折现法更适用于对REITs的价值评估，但其未来现金流预测具有主观性，基于此提出用新陈代谢离散灰色预测模型对现有方法进行改进。首先介绍了灰色预测模型的相关理论，其次进行了新陈代谢离散灰色预测模型的适用性分析，最后通过搜集旭辉瓴寓历年租金数据，建立租金数据序列，累加后得到白化微分方程，利用该方程求解未知参数，最终得到预测模型。接下来以旭辉瓴寓REITs作为案例分析对象，运用改进的模型对底层资产的未来租金收入进行了预测，以此为基础计算出旭辉瓴寓REITs的评估价值。

本文的研究结论有以下2个：①运用新陈代谢离散灰色预测模型改进传统的收益法，有助于提高其预测结果的准确性。②营运资金现金流更适合作为REITs价值评估收益法中的收益参数。基于此，希望该研究能为长租公寓REITs估值增加一条切实可行的新路径。

Under the background that houses are for living and not for speculation, China's long term rental apartment industry has been developing in the long run, but in the process of its development, it faces financing difficulties, and the emergence of REITs has provided a solution to this problem. Since the first private REITs were issued in China in 2014, the REITs market has entered a period of rapid development, and REITs have not only provided financing channels for many real estate enterprises, but also provided high-quality investment products for the financial market, and their value has become a common concern for both issuers and investors. Therefore, this paper selects the first private REIT for long rent apartments, the Xuhui Lingyu REITs, as a case to study the evaluation method of the value of REITs for long term rental apartments and explore new channels for the development of long term rental apartment financing.

Based on the theories of real estate rents and REITs, this paper compares the two methods of evaluating the value of REITs and finds that the discounted working capital cash flow method is more suitable for evaluating the value of REITs, but its future cash flow forecast is subjective. Firstly, the theory of gray forecasting model is introduced, secondly, the applicability analysis of metabolic discrete gray forecasting model is carried out, and finally, by collecting the rental data of Xuhui Lingyu over the past years, the rental data series is established, and the whitening differential equation is obtained after accumulation, and the unknown parameters are solved by using this equation to finally obtain the forecasting model. Next, we used the improved model to forecast the future rental income of the underlying assets, and calculated the appraisal value of the REITs of Xuhui Lingyu as a case study.

There are two conclusions in the study: (1)The use of metabolic discrete gray forecasting model improves the traditional income method, which helps to improve the accuracy of its forecasting results. (2)Discounted operating cash flow is more suitable as an income parameter in the income method of REITs value assessment. Based on this, it is hoped that this study can add a practical new path to the valuation of long term rental apartment REITs.