国际经济与贸易学院知识库

新一轮科技革命的兴起使服务贸易成为全球贸易竞争的新焦点，各国政府也逐渐将眼光聚焦到服务贸易“质”的提升中，而提升服务贸易“质”的关键就在于提升服务贸易出口技术复杂度（张雨，2017）。数字经济的发展为服务贸易在复杂的全球经贸形势中寻找新的增长点提供机遇，也为服务贸易出口技术复杂度的提升带来新挑战。因此，研究数字经济发展对服务贸易出口技术复杂度的影响，可以为各国制定符合国情的数字经济发展策略、提升服务贸易技术复杂度提供依据，对全球服务贸易高质量发展具有重要意义。 

本文采用世界经济论坛发布的网络就绪度指数衡量数字经济发展，同时基于联合国贸易和发展会议数据库测算了2008-2020年62个国家的服务贸易出口技术复杂度，数据表明，全球数字经济发展整体呈上升趋势，且高收入国家的数字经济水平始终高于中低收入国家，大洋洲、北美洲和欧洲的数字经济水平较高；各国服务贸易发展势头良好，高收入国家的服务贸易出口技术复杂度高于中低收入国家，生产性服务业的出口技术复杂度高于生活性服务业。在此基础上构建固定效应模型，实证分析数字经济发展对服务贸易出口技术复杂度的影响。结果表明：样本期内，数字经济发展对服务贸易出口技术复杂度具有显著的促进效应；相较于中低收入国家，数字经济发展对高收入国家服务贸易出口技术复杂度的促进作用更加显著；相较于生活性服务业，数字经济发展对生产性服务业出口技术复杂度的促进作用更加显著；机制检验表明数字经济发展能够通过生产率效应、贸易成本效应、需求引致效应对服务贸易出口技术复杂度产生促进作用。 

基于研究结论，本文提出如下对策建议：加强数字经济与服务贸易的融合度，充分利用数字经济的优势，推动服务贸易的发展；根据不同国家和服务行业的特征，进行差异化发展；大力发展数字经济，完善数字基础设施建设，助力服务贸易出口技术复杂度的提升；鼓励数字技术创新，提升服务业企业的生产率，确保服务贸易可持续发展。

The rise of a new round of scientific and technological revolution makes service trade become a new focus of global trade competition, and governments around the world have gradually focused on the improvement of the "quality" of service trade, and the key to improve the "quality" of service trade is to improve the technical complexity of service trade export (Zhang Yu, 2017). The development of digital economy provides opportunities for service trade to find new growth points in the complex global economic and trade situation, but also brings new challenges for the improvement of technical complexity of service trade export. Therefore, studying the impact of digital economy development on the technical complexity of service trade export can provide a basis for countries to formulate digital economy development strategies in line with their national conditions and improve the technical complexity of service trade, which is of great significance for the high-quality development of global service trade.

This paper uses the network readiness index published by the World Economic Forum to measure the development of digital economy. Meanwhile, based on the database of United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, it calculates the technical complexity of service trade exports of 62 countries from 2008 to 2020. The data shows that the development of global digital economy is rising. The digital economy level of high-income countries is always higher than that of low - and middle-income countries, and Oceania, North America and Europe have strong digital economy level. The service trade of various countries has a good momentum of development. The technical complexity of service trade exports of high-income countries is higher than that of low - and middle-income countries, and that of producer services is higher than that of consumer services. On this basis, a fixed effect model is constructed to analyze the influence of digital economy development on the technical complexity of service trade export. The results show that the development of digital economy has a significant promoting effect on the technical complexity of service trade export during the sample period. Compared with low - and middle-income countries, the development of digital economy plays a more significant role in promoting the technical complexity of service trade exports in high-income countries. Compared with domestic service industry, the development of digital economy plays a more significant role in promoting the technological complexity of producer service industry exports. The mechanism test shows that the development of digital economy can promote the technological complexity of service trade export through productivity effect, trade cost effect and demand-induced effect.

Based on the research conclusions, this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions: enhance the integration degree of digital economy and service trade, make full use of the advantages of digital economy, and promote the development of service trade; according to the characteristics of different countries and service industries, the differentiated development should be carried out; the government vigorously develop the digital economy, improve the construction of digital infrastructure and improve the technical complexity of service trade export; encourage technological innovation, raise the productivity of service enterprises and ensure the sustainable development of trade in services.