统计与数据科学学院知识库

摘  要

  “经济高质量发展”成为经济学术研究的热门话题，这是从十九大开始的。二十大也将高质量发展列为了目前国家发展的首要任务。要推动经济高质量发展，我们必须要提高全要素生产率，必须要重视技术进步、发展交通基础设施、优化产业结构。全要素生产率是反映地区发展质量的关键指数，其变动对各个区域的经济发展都有着重要作用。而交通基础设施投资可以起到增加投资、刺激需求、促进区域经济交流以及缩小经济差距的作用，是发展经济的重要渠道。因此，研究交通基础设施对地区全要素生产率的作用机理和影响效果具有重要的经济意义，可以充分且高效地发挥出交通基础设施对经济的促进作用，以更好地促进地区经济的高质量发展。

  本文首先对国内外相关文献以及相关的经济理论进行了研究分析，然后探讨了交通基础设施对地区全要素生产率的影响作用机理。交通基础设施具有外部性和空间网络性。其外部性有正有负，对不同的地区有不同的程度的促进作用和抑制作用。其空间网络性可以将不同区域连接起来，减少流动、运输成本，促进区域间的人才流动和经济交流。交通基础设施通过其外部性和空间网络性对地区交通基础设施产生影响。然后再开展实证分析，运用随机前沿分析方法来科学测算地区全要素生产率的数值；然后构建固定面板模型，将全要素生产率数值作为被解释变量，将铁路密度和公路密度作为核心解释变量，将城市化水平、产业结构、人力资本、经济发展水平、财政支出和消费水平作为控制变量，然后进行回归分析。研究发现：（1）从全国整体来说，通过铁路密度与公路密度来衡量的交通基础设施对于区域全要素生产率具有正的促进作用，能够有效促进各地区的经济增长和高质量发展。（2）交通基础设施对于地区全要素生产率的影响具有区域异质性。交通基础设施对于东部、中部和西部地区全要素生产率都具有促进作用，影响效应是中部地区的最明显，东部地区次之，西部地区的影响效果低于中部和东部地区。

  本文主要有以下三点创新：第一，以不同区域内交通基础设施对全要素生产率影响的视角进行深入研究，相较于已有文献，本文所涉区域较广，分析所用数据较为全面，意在能够更准确的获得真实结论。第二，着力于研究交通基础设施对全要素生产率异质性影响效应以及国内的鲍莫尔成本病现象，国内在此方面的研究较少。第三，本文以公路和铁路交通设施密度变量来衡量交通基础设施。将城市化水平、产业结构、人力资本、经济发展水平、财政支出、消费水平和投资水平作为控制变量。

关键词：交通基础设施 全要素生产率 公路 铁路

                         Abstract

    Government can regulate the country’s economy at the macro level by adjusting the transportation infrastructure investment, which can play a role in increasing investment, stimulating demand, promoting regional economic exchanges, and narrowing economic disparities. For example, in the past, strategies such as the "Western Development Strategy", the "Central Rise Strategy", and the "Northeast Revitalization Strategy" issued by the central government have all promoted economic development through investment in the construction of transportation infrastructure. Therefore, if we want to play the role of transportation infrastructure in promoting economic develop and promoting the high-quality development of regional economy, it is valuable to know the impact of transportation infrastructure on regional TFP. Total factor productivity (TFP) is a key index that represents the total quality of development in different regions, and its changes play a crucial role in the economic development of each region. Due to the decline in total factor productivity in recent years, some scholars believe that China's economy may face problems of high growth but low quality. In addition, it is essential to promote a change in the quality, efficiency and promotion of economic development and to improve the productivity of all factors.

    Firstly, this thesis conducts theoretical research and analyzes the mechanism of the impact of transportation infrastructure on regional TFP. Transportation infrastructure has externalities and spatial network. Its externalities have positive and negative effects, as well as regional heterogeneity, which has different degrees of promoting and inhibiting effects on developed and backward regions. Its spatial network can connect different regions, reduce mobility and transportation costs, and promote interregional talent mobility and economic exchange. Transportation infrastructure has an impact on regional transportation infrastructure through its externalities and spatial networks. Then, empirical analysis is conducted to scientifically calculate the value of regional TFP using stochastic frontier analysis methods; Then, a fixed panel model is constructed, with railway density and highway density as core explanatory variables, and urbanization level, industrial structure, human capital, economic development level, fiscal expenditure, and consumption level as control variables. Ordinary least squares regression analysis is conducted; Finally, based on the empirical results, effective countermeasures are proposed for developing transportation infrastructure and improving TFP in China.

    Through empirical research findings, the following conclusions are drawn:

     (1) Overall, transportation infrastructure measured by railway density and highway density has a positive impact on regional total factor productivity, and can effectively promote economic growth and high-quality development in various regions.

     (2) The impact of transportation infrastructure on regional TFP has regional heterogeneity, which means the effects are different in different areas. Transportation infrastructure can promote TFP in the eastern, central, and western regions to a certain extent. The ranking of impact effects from strong to weak is the central region、the eastern region、and the western region.

    This thesis has several main innovations compared with other articles:

    First, this thesis does an intensive study from the view of the impact of transportation infrastructure on TFP in different regions. Compared to existing literature, this article covers a wider area, and the data used for analysis is more comprehensive, with the intention of obtaining more accurate and realistic conclusions.

   The second focus is on studying the impact of transportation infrastructure on TFP heterogeneity and the Baumol cost disease phenomenon in China, but there is less research in this area in China. 

    Thirdly, this thesis measures transportation infrastructure with highway and railway traffic facility density variables. The level of urbanization, industrial structure, human capital, economic development level, fiscal expenditure, consumption level, and investment level are taken as control variables.

Key words: Transportation infrastructure; Total factor productivity; Road; Railway