金融学院知识库

  人民币国际化表现为人民币在国际上发挥其计价、结算和储藏职能，达到跨境大规模高效流通的状态。然而，超过70%的主要出口商品以美元计价，人民币却未能有一席之地，且代表国际结算地位的国际支付占比以及外汇储备份额都仅为2%左右、全球跨境贸易额占比不到3%，均与美元和欧元差距较大，由此看出人民币国际化水平仍然较低，与我国经济实力并不匹配；同时，美元“霸权主义”及其在国际货币体系中的“惯性”作用使得人民币国际化遭遇瓶颈期。当前数字化时代背景下，我国央行研发的数字人民币集合了传统纸币和私人加密数字货币的优点，并具有先发和平台等优势，有望成为助力人民币国际化的新动力。

  由于目前各国央行数字货币在跨境支付等方面的应用仍处于试点阶段，数字人民币对人民币国际化的影响作用难以直接用数据进行实证分析，因此本文间接地通过检验数字人民币国际化的制约因素，以期寻找数字人民币从这些因素出发来赋能人民币国际化的路径。本文的研究过程为：首先从人民币国际结算地位、国际计价地位、国际投资地位和外汇储备份额等角度分析人民币国际化现状，并基于此提出目前制约人民币国际化的因素表现在美元霸权、网络外部性、币值稳定性、金融市场发展程度和跨境支付系统等方面。之后从数字人民币的内涵和运行机制入手，分析其在当前“新型货币竞争”中的优势。其次，从货币的三大职能出发，选取2013-2021年间美元、欧元、英镑、日元和人民币五种世界货币的相关数据，运用主成分分析法构建货币国际化指标，从而建立货币国际化影响因素面板数据模型，并采用固定效应估计、广义最小二乘估计和广义矩阵等回归方法分析影响货币国际化的因素，之后根据各国货币国际化程度将数据分为两组进行异质性分析，深入探究人民币国际化的制约因素，研究结果表明，网络外部性较弱、币值稳定性不足以及金融市场相对滞后确为阻碍人民币国际化进程的重要因素，而数字人民币的发行流通机制及其优势能够使其通过缓解上述问题，为突破人民币国际化瓶颈带来正向的赋能动力。未来我国应该从扩展数字人民币的职能和应用场景、探索数字人民币跨境支付的新路径以及积极完善相关法律制度和监管体系三个方面促进数字人民币的发展，为人民币国际化注入新鲜“血液”。

     The internationalization of RMB is manifested in the fact that RMB plays its functions of valuation, settlement and storage internationally, and achieves a state of large-scale and efficient cross-border circulation. However, more than 70% of the main export commodities are denominated in US dollars, while the RMB has not had a place, and the proportion of international payments and foreign exchange reserves representing the status of international settlement is only about 2%, and the proportion of global cross-border trade volume is less than 3%, both of which are far from the US dollar and the euro, which shows that the internationalization level of the RMB is still low and does not match China's economic strength; At the same time, the "hegemonism" of the US dollar and its "inertia" role in the international monetary system have caused the internationalization of the RMB to encounter a bottleneck period. In the current digital era, the e-CNY developed by China's central bank combines the advantages of traditional banknotes and private cryptocurrencies, and has the advantages of first mover and platform, which is expected to become a new driving force for the internationalization of RMB.

     Since the application of digital currency in cross-border payment is still in the pilot stage, the impact of the e-CNY on RMB internationalization is difficult to directly use data for empirical analysis, so this paper indirectly examines the constraints of the e-CNY internationalization, in order to find a way for the e-CNY to empower RMB internationalization from these factors. The research process of this paper is as follows: Firstly, the internationalization status of RMB is analyzed from the perspectives of RMB's international settlement status, international valuation status, international investment status and foreign exchange reserve share, etc. Based on this, it is proposed that the current constraints of RMB's internationalization are manifested in the aspects of US dollar hegemony, network externality, currency stability, financial market development degree and cross-border payment system. Then, starting from the connotation and operation mechanism of the e-CNY, it analyzes its advantages in the current “new currency competition”. Secondly, starting from the three functions of currency, relevant data of five world currencies from 2013 to 2021 including USD, EUR, GBP, JPY and CNY are selected, and the index of currency internationalization is constructed by the principal component analysis method, so as to establish the panel data model of influencing factors of currency internationalization. Regression methods such as fixed effect estimation, generalized least squares estimation and generalized matrix were used to analyze the factors affecting currency internationalization. Then the data were divided into two groups for heterogeneity analysis according to the degree of currency internationalization of each country, and the constraints of RMB internationalization were deeply explored. The research results showed that, Weak network externality, lack of currency stability and relatively lagging financial market are important factors hindering the internationalization of RMB. The issuance and circulation mechanism of the e-CNY and its advantages can alleviate the above problems and bring positive enabling force to break through the bottleneck of RMB internationalization. In the future, China should promote the development of the e-CNY from three aspects: expanding the functions and application scenarios of the e-CNY, exploring the new path of cross-border payment of the e-CNY, and actively improving the relevant legal system and regulatory system, so as to inject fresh “blood” into the internationalization of RMB.