统计与数据科学学院知识库

      近年来，随着全球气候的不断恶化，温室气体减排成为当前世界各国应对气 候变化的根本措施，也是人们重新审视和思考历史发展的进程后，作出的一项必 要决策。为了切实解决发展过程中存在的碳排放问题，习总书记在第 75 届联合 国会议上提出了了碳达峰、碳中和目标，这是我国在推进构建人类命运共同体和 可持续发展内在需求的基础上，作出的重要战略决定。碳中和目标的提出不仅展 示了我国负责任大国的担当，同时也契合了新发展理念中绿色发展的要求。

      碳中和目标虽然是在 2020 年提出，但其低碳环保的理念早在 20 世纪 90 年 代就已经开始在国内广为传播，故本文将“碳中和”与碳排放效率相结合，选取 2005-2020 年中国各省相关数据，构建 DEA 模型的投入产出指标体系，并在此基 础上采用三阶段 DEA 模型对我国各省在碳中和目标下的碳排放效率进行测算， 根据测算结果分析产业结构、城镇化水平和环境规制对碳排放效率的影响，同时 对碳排放效率的空间演变特征及改进路径进行分析，最后采用 MalmquistLunenberger 指数模型对碳排放效率进行动态分析。

      通过分析得出以下结论：（1）“碳中和”目标对我国部分省份的碳排放效率 呈现出抑制作用，但从我国整体来看促进了碳排放效率的提高，DEA 模型第三 阶段效率值测算结果表明，我国虽部分地区效率值偏低，但整体来看我国的碳排 放效率较高，于 2060 年实现“碳中和”的目标有较强可行性。（2）第二阶段 SFA 回归的检验结果表明：相比于随机因素，外部环境因素和管理无效率对碳排放效 率存在较大影响，SFA 回归中产业结构、城镇化水平和环境规制对各生产要素的 投入均有显著影响。（3）我国各省的碳排放效率存在较为明显的空间差异，总 体呈现出东部＞中部＞西部的空间演变特征，中部地区和东部地区碳排放效率为 上升趋势，东部地区的上升速度较快，而西部地区的碳排放效率则是呈现出 U 型 增长。（4）在改进路径上，效率较低的省份可以通过优化外部环境和调整生产 要素投入比例从而提高碳排放效率，目前我国多数省份在产业结构、城镇化水平 和环境规制中与当地的碳排放效率存在不协调，效率较低省份的外部环境因素所 能带来的增长效益存在较大上升空间，同时 Malmquist-Lunenberger 指数模型的分析结果表明，技术效率抑制了碳排放效率的进一步提升技术，而技术进步可作 为提升我国碳排放效率的间接方式。

      基于上述结论并结合“碳中和”目标，对绿色经济、产业结构、城镇化水平、 环境规制、低碳技术创新和城市森林碳储量提出相应的政策建议：加快发展绿色 经济，提高地区整体经济水平；在推动新型城镇化的发展进程中，提升城市群建 设和环境规制的效能；要以推进现代产业体系构建为契机，精准实施新发展阶段 产业结构的调整；应以创新驱动为引领，加强低碳技术创新体系的建设和完善； 以加强生态文明建设为总目标，着力提升森林生态系统增汇固碳能力。

    In recent years, with the continuous deterioration of the global climate, greenhouse gas emission reduction has become the fundamental measures for countries to cope with climate change. It is also a necessary decision made by people after re-examining and thinking about the historical process. The proposal of carbon neutralization goal not only demonstrates the responsibility of our major responsible country, but also conforms to the requirements of green and low carbon development in the new development concept.

    Although the goal of carbon neutrality was proposed in 2020, the concept of low carbon and environmental protection had been widely spread in China as early as the 1990s. Therefore, this paper combined "carbon neutrality" with carbon emission efficiency, selected the relevant data of Chinese provinces from 2005 to 2020, and combined the goal of carbon neutrality with carbon emission efficiency. A new input-output index system with DEA was built. On this basis, three-stage DEA model was used to measure the carbon emission efficiency in every province in our country under carbon neutralization target. The influence of industrial structure, urbanization level and environmental regulation on carbon emission efficiency was analyzed according to the calculation results, and the spatial evolution characteristics and improvement path of carbon emission efficiency were analyzed. Finally, the Malmquist-Lunenberger index model was used to analyze the dynamic carbon emission efficiency.

      The following conclusions can be drawn from the analysis: (1) The goal of "carbon neutralization" has a inhibitory effect on the carbon emission efficiency of some provinces, but it promotes the improvement of carbon emission efficiency from the perspective of China as a whole. The calculation results of the efficiency value in the third stage of DEA model show that although the efficiency value of some regions in China is low, the overall carbon emission efficiency is high. The goal of becoming "carbon neutral" by 2060 is highly feasible. (2) The test results of the second stage of SFA regression show that, compared with random factors, external environmental factors and management inefficiency have a greater impact on carbon emission efficiency. In SFA regression, industrial structure, urbanization level and environmental regulation all have a structure, urbanization level and environmental regulation are not in harmony with local carbon emission efficiency. The growth benefit brought by external environmental factors of provinces with lower efficiency has great room for improvement. At the same time, the analysis result of Malmquist-Lunenberger index model shows that technological efficiency inhibits the further improvement of carbon emission efficiency, and technological progress can be an indirect way to improve Chinese carbon emission efficiency. significant impact on the input of production factors. (3) There are obvious spatial differences in the carbon emission efficiency of Chinese provinces, showing the overall spatial evolution characteristics of east > central > west. The carbon emission efficiency of central and eastern regions shows an upward trend, while the eastern region shows a faster rise, while the western region shows a U-shaped growth. (4) On the improvement path, provinces with lower efficiency can improve carbon emission efficiency by optimizing the external environment and adjusting the proportion of input of production factors. At present, most of our provinces in industrial

      Based on the above conclusions and combined with the goal of "carbon neutrality", the corresponding policy suggestions are put forward for green economy, industrial structure, urbanization level, environmental regulation, low-carbon technology innovation and urban forest carbon storage: accelerate the development of green economy and improve the overall regional economic level; In the process of promoting the development of new urbanization, improve the effectiveness of urban agglomeration construction and environmental regulation; To promote the construction of a modern industrial system as an opportunity to accurately implement the adjustment of the industrial structure in the new development stage; The construction and improvement of low-carbon technology innovation system should be strengthened under the guidance of innovation drive. With the overall goal of strengthening ecological civilization construction, efforts should be made to enhance the capacity of forest ecosystem to increase carbon sequestration.