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随着农地三权分置改革的逐步推进，耕地经营权通过流转的方式成为自然人、企业等各类经济主体的投资对象，由此成为企业和个人资产的一部分。显然三权分置的重点就是放活了经营权，而耕地经营权流转也成为了现代化发展的必由之路。但要想实现耕地经营权的顺利流转，就需要对耕地经营权进行真实的估价并完善耕地经营权的定价机制。因此，制定出一个比较合理的耕地经营权的转让价格和定价机制就显得非常必要。它能够促进农村耕地流转的市场化进程且推动农村耕地的市场化发展。当前，关于耕地经营权估值流转使用最为频繁的一种方法是收益法。该方法在耕地经营权流转后价值评估中之比较适用。然而，在对耕地经营权进行评估时，采用的收益还原法仍有一定的缺陷。在很多时候，评估人员都是根据以往的实际的收益值的平均值来进行的，这种比较粗糙的预测方法，会造成最后的评估结果有一定的偏差，从而会直接影响到它的应用效果。

针对上述问题，本文提出在耕地经营权流转价值评估中应用灰色预测模型来改善其现状的构想和思路。为此，本文首先对运用在耕地经营权流转价值的几种主要的评估方法进行了适用性分析，并对这些评估方法的优缺点进行了对比，最后得到的结论收益法是最能体现出耕地经营权流转价值的评估方法。在此基础上，分析了传统收益法在现实应用中存在的问题。接下来，提出采用灰色预测模型来改善传统收益法的不足。先对灰色系统理论应用于耕地经营权流转价值收益法估价的适用性进行了分析，然后提出了灰色预测模型在收益法估价中的应用程序，在此基础上确定了耕地经营权流转价值中的评估参数。以此来精确农作物未来发展趋势从而预测其收入和费用再进行还原来提高评估的准确性，同时引入经营权流转过程中具有的生态价值构建属于耕地经营权流转价值的应用模型，并将其在一个具体的实例中进行运用。经过对实际案例的研究，本文得出灰色预测模型可以应用于耕地经营权流转价值的评估，且基于灰色预测的收益法能够更科学地将有关的不确定性因素纳入到价值评估的考量之中，从而使评估的结果更贴近于市场的变化趋势。它在短期和中长期的耕地经营权流转价值评估中具备一定的现实意义和应用价值。

With the gradual advance of the reform of separating the three rights of agricultural land, the right of farmland management has become the investment object of various economic entities such as natural persons and enterprises through the way of transfer, thus becoming part of the assets of enterprises and individuals. The key point of the separation of three rights is to activate the right of management, so the transfer of the right of management of cultivated land is obviously the only way for modernization development. But in order to realize the smooth circulation of cultivated land management right, we need to carry on the real valuation of cultivated land management right and perfect the pricing mechanism of cultivated land management right. Therefore, it is very necessary to work out a reasonable transfer price and pricing mechanism of farmland management rights. It can promote the marketization process of rural cultivated land transfer and promote the marketization development of rural cultivated land. At present, the income method is the most frequently used method about the valuation and transfer of cultivated land management right. This method is relatively suitable in the value assessment of cultivated land management right after transfer. However, there are still some defects in the income reduction method used in the evaluation of farmland management right. In many cases, the assessors are based on the average value of the actual earnings in the past. This rough forecasting method will cause certain deviation in the final evaluation results, which will directly affect its application effect.

In view of the above problems, this paper puts forward the idea of applying the grey prediction model in the evaluation of the transfer value of cultivated land management right to improve its current situation. Therefore, this paper firstly analyzes the applicability of several main evaluation methods used in the transfer value of cultivated land management right, and compares the advantages and disadvantages of these evaluation methods, and finally comes to the conclusion that the income method is the most can reflect the transfer value of cultivated land management right. On this basis, the problems existing in the practical application of traditional income method are analyzed. Next, grey forecasting model is proposed to improve the shortcomings of traditional income method. Firstly, the applicability of grey system theory in the valuation of cultivated land management right transfer value income method is analyzed, and then the application program of grey prediction model in the valuation of cultivated land management right transfer value is proposed. On this basis, the evaluation parameters of cultivated land management right transfer value are determined. In this way, the future development trend of crops can be accurately predicted so as to predict their income and expenses, and then the accuracy of assessment can be improved by the correction. At the same time, the ecological value in the process of management right transfer is introduced to construct an application model belonging to the value of farmland management right transfer, and it is applied in a specific example. Through the study of the actual case, this paper concludes that the grey prediction model can be applied to the assessment of the value of the transfer of farmland management right, and the income method based on the grey prediction can more scientifically incorporate the relevant uncertainties into the consideration of the value assessment, so that the assessment results are closer to the trend of the market. It has certain practical significance and application value in evaluating the transfer value of cultivated land management right in short term.