统计与数据科学学院知识库

进入21世纪以来，我国人口老龄化进程不断加快，养老资源配置问题引起社会广泛关注。山东省是我国老年人口第一大省，其进入老龄化社会较早、老龄化程度较深、老龄化问题较突出，养老问题日益严峻，优化养老资源配置刻不容缓。研究山东省人口老龄化及养老资源配置将为其他省份积极应对人口老龄化问题提供借鉴。

基于此，本文选取山东省16个地级市作为研究对象，分析了2000年、2005年、2010年、2015年和2020年市域人口老龄化时空演变特征和空间关联特征。通过梳理相关理论，对新时代下养老资源的内涵进行界定，选取社会保障、生活服务、医疗保健和文体环境四个一级指标，运用熵权-突变级数法构建养老资源配置综合评价模型，探究山东省2020年各地级市养老资源分布情况。基于对老年人口和养老资源地理集中度的测算，引入匹配度指数，分析山东省区域养老资源配置与老年人口分布的适配情况，探索山东省各地级市养老资源配置水平。最后，阐述本文的研究结论，并为山东省优化养老资源配置建言献策。

研究结果表明：第一、山东省老龄化程度随着时间的推进正逐步加深，呈现出“东高西低”的空间特征，且具有较强的空间相关性。第二、山东省养老资源配置情况总体良好，但不同城市在养老资源配置上存在明显差异，同一城市在不同资源配置上呈现不均衡特征。第三、山东省区域养老资源配置与老年人口分布适配性不高，养老资源滞后型城市较多。

Since the beginning of the 21st century, the aging process of China's population has been accelerating, and the allocation of resources for the elderly has aroused widespread concern in society. Shandong Province is the largest province with the largest elderly population in China, and it has entered the ageing society earlier, with a deeper degree of ageing and more prominent ageing problems, and the problem of old-age care is becoming increasingly serious, so it is urgent to optimise the allocation of old-age resources. The study of population ageing and the allocation of elderly resources in Shandong Province will provide a reference for other provinces to actively deal with the problem of population ageing.

Based on this, this paper selects 16 prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province as the research objects and analyzes the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and spatial correlation characteristics of population ageing in municipalities in 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015 and 2020. By sorting out relevant theories, defining the meaning of elderly resources in the new era, selecting indicators in four aspects: social security, living services, health care and cultural and sports environment, and using the entropy-weighted mutation level method to construct a comprehensive evaluation model for the allocation of elderly resources, the study explores the distribution of elderly resources by prefecture-level cities in Shandong Province in 2020. Based on the geographical concentration of the elderly population and elderly resources, a matching formula is introduced to analyze the matching of regional elderly resources allocation with the distribution of the elderly population in Shandong Province, and explore the level of elderly resources allocation in each prefecture-level city of Shandong Province. Finally, the whole article is synthesized to suggest suggestions for the allocation of elderly resources in Shandong Province.

The results of the study show that: firstly, the degree of ageing in Shandong Province is gradually increasing over time, showing the spatial characteristics of "high in the east and low in the west", and has a strong spatial correlation. Secondly, the allocation of elderly resources in Shandong Province is generally good, but there are obvious differences in the allocation of elderly resources in different cities, and the same city shows uneven allocation of different resources. Thirdly, the appropriateness of the regional elderly resources allocation to the distribution of the elderly population in Shandong Province is not high, and there are more cities with lagging elderly resources.