国际经济与贸易学院知识库

      进入新世纪以来，随着多哈回合谈判屡陷困境、世界贸易组织(WTO)框架下的多边贸易体制持续不振，世界各国在不断进行区域经济一体化的探索，尝试构建基于双边或多边的自由贸易体系，区域自由贸易协定(FTA)逐渐成为国际贸易的主流选项与规则制定标准。亚太地区集合了当今世界上绝大部分的人口与经济体量，自1989 年亚太经济合作组织(APEC)成立以来，亚太地区已经相继实现了多个区域经济一体化构想，包括 2004 年提出的亚太自由贸易区(FTAAP)、2013 年提出的中日韩自由贸易协定、2016 年中国提出的“中国-东盟 10+1”共同体构想、美国计划参与的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)、美国宣布退出之后由日本积极主导的全面进步的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(CPTPP)、2022 年正式生效的区域全面经 济伙伴关系协定(Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership，RCEP)。RCEP的实施有助于亚太区域经济一体化建设的推进，对中国来说，RCEP 的建成对全面促进中国与其他成员国的经贸往来有积极作用，能使得中国和各成员国间的产 业贸易更加密切，有助于中国经济的稳定增长。在此背景下,探究中国加入RCEP的贸易效应具有重要的理论意义和现实意义。

      本文首先回顾了RCEP相关研究文献、原产地规则相关研究文献与贸易效应理论。其次从RCEP成员国之间的贸易现状入手，利用社会网络分析方法考察了中国与其他成员国之间的贸易现状，先后分析了RCEP正式生效前后十二年间区域贸易网络密度变化情况、各成员国中心度变化情况，以及我国与各成员国之间的产业贸易结构特征。在此基础上, 基于原产地规则(Rules of Orgin，ROO)视角，实证检验了原产地规则限制效应指数与我国进出口贸易的相关关系，在计算出RCEP原产地规则限制效应指数的基础上，提出了RCEP原产规则属于宽松的原产规则、加入RCEP 有利于我国区域内贸易发展的一般性推断。最后，运用GTAP模型对政策冲击下各成员国的宏观经济与产业产出变动做出模拟分析。在模拟研究中,本文根据实际情况与研究需要对国家(地区)和产业类别进行了设定,在情景设定上充分结合现实情况,加入了谷物和作物、畜牧业和肉制品、加工食品等敏感行业的分阶段降税，以及将印度与俄罗斯纳入 RCEP 的动态扩容情景，进一步说明加入 RCEP 给我国带来的积极贸易效应。

      研究结果表明：(1)RCEP 区域内国家之间拥有较为紧密的贸易网络，在2022年之前区域内贸易联系紧密程度逐渐下降，但2022年的贸易网络密度大幅上升。中国、日本、韩国三国长期占据贸易网络核心地位，但东盟内部的一些不发达国家难以长期以一种稳定的状态高度融入 RCEP 贸易网络中。就现状分析来看，我国与 RCEP 大部分国家产业结构趋同严重，这势必会导致激烈的市场竞争，RCEP原产地规则将会使企业的生产区位选择更加合理，更有利于成员国发挥比较优势，减轻产业趋同导致的竞争压力；(2)实证研究表明原产地规则限制效应指数越小越有利于进出口，说明越宽松的原产地政策有利于外贸发展，RCEP 原产地规则限制效应指数为 3.51，与目前我国已签署的 FTA 相比限制程度较低，有利于我国整体贸易获益；(3)通过对四种不同方案的 GTAP 模拟可以发现，随着区域内贸易自由化水平的提高，RCEP 区域内主要经济体的福利水平、GDP 以及我国对成员国的产业进出口等经济效应都有所改善，并随着对区域内关税和非关税贸易壁垒的削减，所带来的正向效果更加明显，贸易创造效应更加显著；(4)随着关税与非关税壁垒不断减弱，我国从区域内国家的进口不断增加，区域内贸易被创造了出来。而我国从区域外国家的进口不断减少，区域外的贸易被转移到了区域内。因此，我国在区域内有贸易创造效应，在区域外有贸易转移效应。在相继吸收印度与俄罗斯为成员国后，我国向区域内的进口有大幅度上升，总效益也有所提高，进一步说明成员国扩容可继续提升 RCEP 内部国家的贸易水平。

      最后，结合研究结论，对中国加入RCEP后如何进一步提升贸易水平、扩大贸易开放提出了相关建议。中国在加入RCEP之后，应积极推动成员国扩容，主动参与规则制定，持续推动全行业的关税与非关税贸易壁垒的减免，加快产业合作与结构升级，提升在全球价值链合作中的竞争力，实现中国由贸易大国向贸易强国的转变。

   Since entering the new century, as the Doha Round negotiations have repeatedly fallen into difficulties and the multilateral trading system under the framework of the World Trade Organization (WTO) continues to falter, countries around the world are constantly exploring regional economic integration, attempting to build a bilateral or multilateral free trade system, and regional free trade agreements (FTA) have gradually become the mainstream option and rulemaking standard for international trade. The Asia Pacific region gathers the vast majority of the world's population and economic size. Since the establishment of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) in 1989, the Asia Pacific region has successively realized multiple regional economic integration concepts, including the Asia Pacific Free Trade Area (FTAAP) proposed in 2004, the China Japan South Korea Free Trade Agreement proposed in 2013, the "China ASEAN 10+1" community concept proposed by China in 2016 The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) in which the United States plans to participate, the Comprehensive Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) actively led by Japan after the United States announced its withdrawal, and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which officially entered into force in 2022. The implementation of RCEP is conducive to the promotion of economic integration in the Asia Pacific region. For China, the completion of RCEP has a positive effect on comprehensively promoting economic and trade exchanges between China and other member countries, making industrial trade between China and member countries closer, and contributing to the stable growth of China's economy. In this context, exploring the trade effects of China's accession to RCEP has important theoretical and practical significance.

   This article first reviews the relevant research literature on RCEP, rules of origin, and trade effects theory. Secondly, starting with the current situation of trade between RCEP member countries, using social network analysis methods, this paper examines the current situation of trade between China and other member countries, and successively analyzes the changes in regional trade network density, the centrality of each member country, and the structural characteristics of industrial trade between China and each member country during the twelve years before and after the official entry into force of RCEP. On this basis, based on the perspective of rules of origin (ROO), this paper empirically tests the correlation between the restriction effect index of rules of origin and China's import and export trade. On the basis of calculating the restriction effect index of RCEP rules of origin, it proposes a general inference that RCEP rules of origin are loose rules of origin and that joining RCEP is beneficial to the development of China's intra regional trade. Finally, the GTAP model is used to simulate and analyze the macroeconomic and industrial output changes of member countries under policy shocks. In the simulation study, this article sets the country (region) and industry category based on the actual situation and research needs. In the scenario setting, it fully combines the actual situation, including phased tax reductions in sensitive industries such as grain and crops, animal husbandry, meat products, and processed food, as well as the dynamic expansion scenario of including India and Russia in RCEP, further illustrating the positive trade effects brought about by joining RCEP to China.

   The research results show that: (1) Countries within the RCEP region have relatively close trade networks. Before 2022, the degree of intraregional trade ties gradually decreased, but the density of trade networks in 2022 increased significantly. China, Japan, and South Korea have long occupied the core position of the trade network, but some underdeveloped countries within ASEAN are difficult to integrate highly into the RCEP trade network in a stable state for a long time. From the perspective of current situation analysis, the industrial structure of China and most of the countries in RCEP is seriously converging, which is bound to lead to fierce market competition. The rules of origin of RCEP will make the selection of production locations of enterprises more reasonable, more conducive to the comparative advantage of member countries, and reduce the competitive pressure caused by industrial convergence; (2) Empirical research shows that the smaller the restriction effect index of rules of origin, the more beneficial it is for imports and exports, indicating that the looser the policy of origin is conducive to the development of foreign trade. The RCEP restriction effect index of rules of origin is 3.51, which is lower than the currently signed FTA in China, and is conducive to the overall trade benefits of China; (3) Through GTAP simulation of four different schemes, it can be found that as the level of intraregional trade liberalization increases, the economic effects of major economies in the RCEP region, such as welfare levels, GDP, and China's industrial imports and exports to member countries, have improved. With the reduction of tariff and non tariff trade barriers in the region, the positive effects are more evident, and the trade creation effect is more significant; (4) As tariff and non-tariff barriers continue to weaken, China's imports to countries within the region continue to increase, creating intraregional trade. As China's imports to countries outside the region continue to decrease, trade outside the region has been transferred to within the region. Therefore, China has a trade creation effect within the region and a trade transfer effect outside the region. After successively absorbing India and Russia as member countries, China's imports into the region have significantly increased, and the overall benefits have also improved, further indicating that member country expansion can continue to improve the trade level of countries within RCEP.

   Finally, based on the conclusions of the study, relevant suggestions are proposed on how to further improve the level of trade and expand trade openness after China's accession to RCEP. After joining the RCEP, China should actively promote the expansion of member countries, actively participate in rulemaking, continue to promote the reduction of tariff and non-tariff trade barriers across the industry, accelerate industrial cooperation and structural upgrading, enhance competitiveness in global value chain cooperation, and achieve China's transformation from a trading power to a trading power.