国际经济与贸易学院知识库

自 2013 年“一带一路”倡议提出后，中国与“一带一路”沿线各国进行大规模的基础设施建设合作，并且成效卓著。其中，一项标志性的成果就是中欧班列的建设与开通。作为“一带一路”建设的旗舰项目，中欧班列是亚欧大陆开展务实合作的重要载体。中欧班列正式开通十余年至今，已然进入高速发展的阶段，国际运输线路迅速扩张，空间布局逐渐优化，班列运行不断提质增效，形成了“干支结合、枢纽集散”的发展格局。依托于中欧班列形成的巨大贸易网络，新的生产网络和消费市场正在区域内快速形成，进而推动全球价值链重构（卢潇潇，2020）。作为全球价值链分工的主要载体，中间品贸易有望成为带动沿线国家区域贸易合作和增进技术创新的桥梁。

本文将一带一路合作框架下中欧班列开通运行作为研究视角，首先对 26 个中欧班列沿线国家与我国的中间品贸易现状和产品结构做了统计分析，旨在初步把握双边中间品贸易的发展趋势。随后，采用样本国家 2003 年至 2020 年与中国的中间品贸易额以及影响中间品贸易的自然和人为因素，构建了随机前沿引力模型，并将部分影响双边中间品贸易的人为因素引入了贸易非效率项，深入探究这些因素对中间品贸易的影响，在此基础上测算出各个国家的中间品贸易效率值。
实证结果显示，贸易对象国 GDP、贸易对象国人口数量、地理距离、制度质量等是影响我国与中欧班列沿线各国中间品贸易的重要因素。此外，中欧班列开通可以被作为一项准自然实验，因此，本文利用双重差分模型实证检验了班列开通对于沿线国家中间品贸易效率的具体影响。最后，在理论和实证分析的基础上，从多个方面提出促进我国与中欧班列沿线国家中间品贸易发展、提升双边贸易效率、激发与沿线国家贸易潜力的针对性建议。     

Since the initiation of the "Belt and Road" initiative in 2013, China has engaged in large-scale cross-border infrastructure construction with the countries along the route, resulting in remarkable achievements. One of the most notable successes is the construction and operation of the CHINA RAILWAY Express (CR Express), which serves as an essential practical cooperation carrier among Asian and European countries. Over the past decade, the CR Express has undergone rapid development, including the expansion of international transport routes, optimization of spatial layout, and continuous improvement of operational efficiency. This has led to the creation of new production networks and consumer markets, which promote the reconstruction of the global value chain.

As a major contributor to the global value chain division of labor, intermediate goods trade plays a significant role in driving regional trade cooperation and technological innovation in countries along the route. This research paper adopts the opening and operation of the CR Express under the Belt and Road Cooperation framework as a research perspective. Initially, the study conducts a statistical analysis of the current situation and product structure of intermediate goods trade between 26 countries along the CR Expresss and China to gain insight into the development trend of bilateral intermediate goods trade.

Furthermore, the study employs the intermediate goods trade volumebetween the sample countries and China from 2003 to 2020 as the explanatory variable and uses data indicators such as national economic development status, population, and geographical distance as explanatory variables to construct a stochastic frontier gravity model. The trade inefficiency term introduces some artificial factors that affect bilateral
intermediate goods trade to investigate the impact of these factors on intermediate goods trade indepth and measure the efficiency values of intermediate goods trade for each country.

The empirical results show that factors such as the GDP of the trade target countries, the population size of the trade target countries, the geographical distance, and the quality of the system significantly influence the trade of intermediate goods between China and the countries along the CR Express. Additionally, the opening of the CR Express serves as a quasi-natural experiment, allowing for the empirical testing of the specific impact of the train's opening on the efficiency of intermediate goods trade with the countries along the route using a double-difference model.

Finally, based on the results of the above analysis, this paper presents targeted recommendations for promoting the development of China's intermediate goods trade with the countries along the CR Express, improving bilateral trade efficiency, and stimulating trade potential with the countries along the route from several perspectives.