国际经济与贸易学院知识库

世界经济发展以及各国间经济合作的加强，推动了全球人文交流，带动了国际旅游服务贸易繁荣。同时，随着人们生活水平的提高，旅游成为各国居民满足自身更高层次文化生活需求的重要方式。作为世界经济的支柱型产业之一，旅游业对国民经济的带动作用也被众多国家所认可。

自2003年日本确立观光立国战略以来，日本的入境旅游人数呈现上升趋势。在促进经济发展的同时也使日本逐步成为一个国际性的旅游贸易大国。我国与日本历史文化和旅游资源相似，且地缘距离较近，然而近年来我国入境旅游外国游客数量逐年下降。因此本文通过研究日本入境旅游影响因素，对推动我国入境旅游发展，改善旅游服务贸易逆差提出政策建议。

基于此，本文首先对旅游经济理论进行梳理，总结入境旅游和引力模型相关文献。紧接着，利用统计资料概括日本入境旅游发展历程，分析日本入境旅游客源结构及日本旅游服务贸易的国际竞争力水平，从而全面了解日本入境旅游发展状况。在此基础上，构建日本入境旅游引力模型，对日本入境旅游影响因素进行实证分析。

在变量选取方面，本文以日本2003-2020年35个主要客源地赴日旅游人数为因变量，在旅游经济理论及前人研究成果的基础上，选取了包括客源地和日本人均国内生产总值、双边贸易额和双边汇率在内的10个影响因素，构建引力模型进行实证分析。实证结果表明，在全球客源市场中，所有变量均通过显著性检验，其中客源地与日本人均国内生产总值、双边贸易额、双边汇率以及橄榄球世界杯的举办与赴日旅游人数正相关。文化距离、地理距离、2008年金融危机、日本3.11地震以及新冠肺炎疫情的暴发阻碍了日本入境旅游发展。

为了使研究结果更加可靠，本文同时运用三种方法进行稳健性检验，回归结果与基准回归结果一致。除此之外，针对不同收入水平和地理距离的客源地进行异质性分析，回归结果出现分化。最后，根据实证研究结果，对我国入境旅游的持续健康发展提出政策建议。

The development of the world economy and the strengthening of economic cooperation among countries have promoted global people to people and cultural exchanges and led to the prosperity of international tourism service trade. At the same time, with the improvement of people's living standards, tourism has become an important way for residents of various countries to meet their own higher-level cultural life needs. As one of the pillar industries of the world economy, the driving effect of tourism on the national economy has also been recognized by many countries.

Since Japan established the strategy of building a country through tourism in 2003, the number of inbound tourists in Japan has shown an upward trend. While promoting economic development, Japan has gradually become an international tourism trade power. China is similar to Japan in terms of historical culture and tourism resources, and the geographical distance is relatively close. However, in recent years, the number of inbound foreign tourists in China has decreased year by year. Therefore, this paper studies the influencing factors of Japan's inbound tourism, and puts forward policy suggestions to promote the development of China's inbound tourism and improve the deficit of tourism service trade.

Based on this, this paper first combs the theory of tourism economy, and summarizes the relevant literature of inbound tourism and gravity model. Then, using statistical data to summarize the development process of Japan's inbound tourism, analyze the structure of Japan's inbound tourism and the international competitiveness of Japan's tourism service trade, so as to comprehensively understand the development of Japan's inbound tourism. On this basis, this paper constructs the gravity model of Japan's inbound tourism, and makes an empirical analysis of the influencing factors of Japan's inbound tourism.

In terms of variable selection, this paper takes the number of tourists to Japan from 35 major tourist sources in Japan from 2003 to 2020 as the dependent variable, and based on the theory of tourism economy and previous research results, selects 10 influencing factors including the per capita GDP of tourist sources and Japan, bilateral trade volume and bilateral exchange rate, and constructs a gravity model for empirical analysis. The empirical results show that in the global tourist market, all variables pass the significance test, and the tourist source and Japan's per capita GDP, bilateral trade volume, bilateral exchange rate and the holding of the Rugby World Cup are positively correlated with the number of tourists to Japan. Cultural distance, geographical distance, the 2008 financial crisis, Japan's 3.11 earthquake and the outbreak of new crown pneumonia have hindered the development of inbound tourism in Japan.

In order to make the research results more reliable, this paper uses three methods to test the robustness at the same time, and the regression results are consistent with the benchmark regression results. In addition, according to the heterogeneity analysis of different income levels and geographical distance, the regression results are differentiated. Finally, according to the empirical research results, the paper puts forward policy suggestions for the sustainable and healthy development of China's inbound tourism.