国际经济与贸易学院知识库

作为“一带一路”的重大成果之一，中欧班列显著扩大了开通城市的出口贸易。但在一定程度上，中欧班列带来的出口贸易扩大源于开通城市给予出口企业的高额补贴，非市场化的行为会对原有经济运行机制产生影响，因此研究中欧班列的贸易扩大效应对开通城市经济增长的影响机制具有一定的理论和现实意义。

论文首先分析了中欧班列及其出口贸易与经济增长效应的现状；其次基于相关理论，从资本积累、技术进步、产业结构升级及制度变迁四个角度分析中欧班列的出口扩大效应对开通城市经济增长的影响机制；再次利用我国285个地级市2005—2019年的数据，通过双重差分模型和中介效应模型实证了中欧班列的出口扩大效应对开通城市经济增长的影响，做了稳健性检验，并分析了非常态化运行城市；最后通过链式中介效应模型，把资本积累、技术进步、产业结构升级和制度变迁作为链式中介变量，实证中欧班列的出口扩大效应影响开通城市经济增长的机制，做了区域异质性检验。主要结论如下：（1）中欧班列的出口扩大效应，分别通过加强规模经济、投资引诱、市场竞争；技术溢出、技术创新、知识产权保护；融入全球产业链、区位优势和产业集聚、产业数字化；制度外溢、制度竞争、改变制度变迁主体促进了开通城市的资本积累、技术进步、产业结构升级和制度变迁，进而促进开通城市经济增长。（2）中欧班列的出口扩大效应促进了开通城市的出口和经济增长，中欧班列对非常态化运行城市的出口和经济增长没有明显地促进作用。（3）中欧班列的出口扩大效应能通过促进开通城市资本积累、技术进步、产业结构升级及制度变迁四条路径来促进开通城市经济增长。（4）中欧班列的出口扩大效应对于中西部城市、中欧班列集结中心城市的经济增长促进作用分别高于东部城市、非中欧班列集结中心城市。中西部城市、中欧班列集结中心城市四条中介机制的经济增长促进作用分别高于东部城市、非中欧班列集结中心城市。

本文根据中欧班列的主要问题和四条路径提出了五点政策建议，分别是：提升常态化运行能力；深化基础设施联通以吸引资本进入中西部城市；加强技术溢出和制度创新；促进出口贸易数量和质量同时提升；重视制度改革和制度创新。

As one of the significant achievements of the Belt and Road Initiative, the CR Express has significantly expanded the export trade of cities along the route. However, to some extent, the expansion of export trade brought by the CR Express comes from the high subsidies given by the cities to export enterprises, and non-market behavior can have an impact on the existing economic operation mechanism. Therefore, studying the trade expansion effect of the CR Express on the economic growth of cities along the route has certain theoretical and practical significance.

The paper first analyzes the current situation of the CR Express and its export trade and economic growth effects; secondly, based on relevant theories, it analyzes the impact mechanism of the CR Express's export expansion effect on the economic growth of cities along the route from four perspectives: capital accumulation, technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, and institutional change; then, using data from 285 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2019, the export expansion effect of the CR Express on the economic growth of cities along the route is empirically studied through a difference-in-differences model and mediation effect model, robustness tests are conducted, and non-normalized operation cities are analyzed; finally, through a chained mediation effect model, capital accumulation, technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, and institutional change are taken as chained mediating variables to empirically study the mechanism of the CR Express's export expansion effect on the economic growth of cities along the route, and regional heterogeneity tests are conducted. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The export expansion effect of the CR Express promotes the capital accumulation, technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, and institutional change of cities along the route by strengthening scale economies, investment inducement, market competition; technology spillovers, technological innovation, intellectual property protection; integration into the global industrial chain, locational advantages, and industrial agglomeration, and industrial digitalization; institutional spillovers, institutional competition, and changing institutional change subjects, thereby promoting the economic growth of cities along the route. (2) The export expansion effect of the CR Express promotes the exports and economic growth of cities along the route, but the CR Express does not significantly promote the exports and economic growth of non-normalized operation cities. (3) The export expansion effect of the CR Express can promote the economic growth of cities along the route through four pathways: capital accumulation, technological progress, industrial structure upgrading, and institutional change. (4) The export expansion effect of the CR Express has a higher promotion effect on the economic growth of central and western cities and CR Express assembly center cities than eastern cities and non-CR Express assembly center cities. The economic growth promotion effect of the four mediating mechanisms for central and western cities and CR Express assembly center cities is higher than that for eastern cities and non-CR Express assembly center cities.

Based on the main issues of the CR Express and the four pathways, this paper puts forward five policy recommendations: enhancing the capacity for normalized operation; deepening infrastructure connectivity to attract capital into central and western cities; strengthening technology spillovers and institutional innovation; promoting both the quantity and quality of export trade; and emphasizing institutional reform and innovation.