统计与数据科学学院知识库

自党的“十九大”提出乡村振兴战略以来，全国各地纷纷响应中央号召，积极实施并大力推进乡村振兴建设。2020年我国实现了贫困人口全面脱贫，乡村振兴发展已完成第一个阶段目标，正向农业农村现代化的第二个阶段奋进。目前，为了进一步巩固强化甘肃省脱贫攻坚成果，加速实现甘肃省农业农村现代化，有必要深刻认识甘肃省乡村振兴发展现状，深入探讨甘肃省乡村振兴发展水平及其影响因素，这对推动甘肃省乡村经济可持续发展至关重要。

论文基于2011年至2020年的统计数据，侧重对甘肃省乡村振兴发展问题进行量化分析。首先，在系统梳理国内外乡村振兴发展相关研究成果的基础上，明确了其内涵特征，结合甘肃省农村发展的实际情况，从产业兴旺、生态宜居、乡风文明、治理有效、生活富裕五个维度构建了甘肃省乡村振兴发展水平测度指标体系；其次，选用熵值法实际测度分析了甘肃省及14个市（州）的乡村振兴发展水平同时，一方面运用核密度函数对甘肃省乡村振兴总体发展水平和各维度发展水平进行了动态演进分析，另一方面根据耦合协调模型研究了甘肃省乡村振兴发展各子系统之间的协调水平；最后，选取灰色关联度模型分析影响甘肃省乡村振兴发展的各个因素，以便全面认识和准确把握甘肃省乡村振兴发展过程中存在的突出问题，从而提出促进其发展的对策建议。

通过上述研究，得到以下结论：

一是，甘肃省乡村振兴发展水平总体呈上升态势，五个子系统的发展水平也表现出上升趋势，但整体发展水平较低、各地区发展水平缓慢且差异较大；二是，从整体的动态演进来看，甘肃省乡村振兴水平上升中增长速率较慢，各地区间乡村振兴水平差距虽趋缩小，但变化幅度较小，核密度曲线表现为单峰分布，未出现两极分化现象；三是，在研究的这十年间，甘肃省乡村振兴各子系统间的发展从极度失调发展转变为勉强协调状态；四是，甘肃省乡村振兴发展水平与各因素均呈现正相关关系，治理有效水平和乡风文明水平的影响作用最大，产业兴旺水平和生态宜居水平居次，生活富裕水平的影响作用最小。

综合上述结论，从促进产业融合、改善人居环境、强化乡村文明、推进乡村治理、增加农民收入等五个方面提出了促进甘肃省乡村振兴发展的基本建议。

Since the "19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China" put forward the rural revitalization strategy, all parts of the country have responded to the call of the central government and actively implemented and vigorously promoted the construction of rural revitalization. In 2020, China has achieved a comprehensive all-round alleviation of poverty among the poor population, completed the first stage of rural revitalization and development, and is forging ahead to the second stage of agricultural and rural modernization. At present, in order to further consolidate and strengthen the achievements of poverty alleviation in Gansu Province and accelerate the modernization of agriculture and rural areas in Gansu Province, it is necessary to deeply understand the current situation of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province and deeply explore the level of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province and its influencing factors, which is very important for promoting the sustainable development of rural economy in Gansu Province.

Based on statistical data from 2011 to 2020, this paper focuses on the quantitative analysis of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province. Firstly, on the basis of systematically combing the relevant research results of rural revitalization and development at home and abroad, the connotation characteristics are clarified, and combined with the actual situation of rural development in Gansu Province, the measurement index system of rural revitalization and development level in Gansu Province is constructed from the five dimensions of prosperous industry, ecological livability, civilized rural style, effective governance and rich life. Secondly, the actual measurement of entropy method was used to analyze the development level of rural revitalization in Gansu Province and 14 cities (prefectures), on the one hand, the kernel density function was used to analyze the dynamic evolution of the overall development level and the development level of various dimensions of rural revitalization in Gansu Province, and on the other hand, the coordination level between subsystems of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province was studied according to the coupled coordination model. Finally, the grey correlation model is selected to analyze the factors affecting the rural revitalization and development of Gansu Province, so as to comprehensively understand and accurately grasp the outstanding problems in the process of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province, so as to put forward countermeasures and suggestions to promote its development.

Through the above research, the following conclusions are obtained:

First, the development level of rural revitalization in Gansu Province is generally on the rise, and the development level of the five subsystems also shows an upward trend, but the overall development level is low, and the development level of each region is slow and different. Second, from the perspective of the overall dynamic evolution, the growth rate of rural revitalization level in Gansu Province is slower, although the gap between regions in rural revitalization level tends to narrow, but the change range is small, and the nuclear density curve shows a unimodal distribution, and there is no polarization. Third, in the past ten years of study, the development of various subsystems of rural revitalization in Gansu Province has changed from extremely dysfunctional development to a state of barely coordination; Fourth, the level of rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province is positively correlated with various factors, with the effective level of governance and the level of rural style civilization having the greatest impact, the level of industrial prosperity and ecological livability ranking secondary, and the impact of living prosperity being the smallest.

Based on the above conclusions, the basic suggestions for promoting rural revitalization and development in Gansu Province are put forward from five aspects: promoting industrial integration, improving the living environment, strengthening rural civilization, promoting rural governance, and increasing farmers' income.