国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  在数字贸易的赋能下，出口制造业和服务业之间的关联性加强，使得国家在全球价值链分工中的地位得到了提升，也提高了企业在国际市场上的竞争优势，推动了世界经济增长和对外贸易的发展。其中ICT本身作为一项服务能够嵌入到数字贸易中，分析其对一国服务贸易发展的影响显的尤为重要。另外在对对外贸易的研究中，大多学者致力于贸易增加值的分析，在出口质量的衡量中也更多从出口技术水平这个角度展开。

  本文从网络基础设施和ICT发展规模两个角度来评价ICT的发展状况。使用了OECD增加值数据库，选取了OECD的成员国以及其他参与全球服务贸易的主要国家，整理了2001年至2018年18年的各个国家的出口增加值，形成了包括中国在内的47个样本国，并应用相关公式计算了这47个国家的服务贸易出口技术复杂度。随后，在市场结构变革过程中，以我国服务贸易出口成本和出口竞争力的演变为切入点，揭示ICT对我国服务贸易出口技术水平提高的作用机理。最后，通过固定效应模型和动态面板GMM方法验证ICT对服务贸易出口复杂度的影响，根据异质性企业理论，分发展中国家和发达国家两大经济体进行比较分析。

  固定效应的基准回归模型的结论如下：（1）每百人宽带用户数能够促进经济的增长，提高服务贸易出口技术复杂度；（2）ICT出口额对发达国家的服务贸易出口复杂度的影响更显著。（3）服务贸易出口复杂度具有持续性，当期复杂度会受上一期的积极影响；（4）经济发展水平、服务贸易开放程度和FDI对我国服务贸易发展水平都有明显的促进作用。

  根据实证结果，为了使ICT对服务贸易出口复杂度有更大的助力，提出如下建议：（1）加强互联网建设，持续推动ICT对提高服务贸易出口复杂度的作用；（2）增加外商直接投资，吸引更多的外来资金来提高服务贸易竞争力，进而提高中国的经济和贸易的增长；（3）提高服务贸易开放度，减少服务贸易壁垒，提高中国在服务贸易发展中的地位；（4）大力发展人力资本，加大对高校投资力度，培养更多知识型、技术性人才。

     Under the empowerment of digital trade, the correlation between export manufacturing and service industries has been strengthened, which has enhanced the status of countries in the division of labor in global value chains, improved the competitive advantage of enterprises in the international market, and promoted world economic growth and the development of foreign trade. As a service, ICT itself can be embedded in digital trade, and analyzing its impact on the development of a country's service trade is particularly important. In addition, in the study of foreign trade, most scholars are committed to the analysis of trade value added, and in the measurement of export quality, they also focus more on the level of export technology.

    This article evaluates the development of ICT from the perspectives of network infrastructure and ICT development scale. Using the OECD Value Added Database, we selected OECD member countries and other major countries participating in global service trade, collated the export value added of each country from 2001 to 2018, forming 47 sample countries, including China, and calculated the technical complexity of service trade exports for these 47 countries using relevant formulas. Subsequently, in the process of market structure reform, taking the evolution of China's service trade export costs and export competitiveness as a starting point, the mechanism of ICT's role in improving China's service trade export technology level was revealed. Finally, a fixed effect model and a dynamic panel GMM method are used to verify the impact of ICT on the complexity of service trade exports. According to the heterogeneous enterprise theory, the two major economies of developing and developed countries are compared and analyzed.

    The conclusions of the fixed effect benchmark regression model are as follows: (1) The number of broadband users per 100 people can promote economic growth and increase the technical complexity of service trade exports; (2) The impact of ICT exports on the complexity of developed countries' services trade exports is more significant. (3) The complexity of service trade exports is persistent, and the current complexity will be positively affected by the previous period; (4) The level of economic development, the degree of openness to service trade, and FDI have all significantly promoted the development of China's service trade.

    Based on the empirical results, in order to make ICT more conducive to the complexity of service trade exports, the following suggestions are proposed: (1) Strengthen the construction of the Internet and continue to promote the role of ICT in improving the complexity of service trade exports; (2) Increase foreign direct investment and attract more foreign capital to improve the competitiveness of service trade, thereby improving China's economic and trade growth; (3) Improve the openness of service trade, reduce barriers to service trade, and enhance China's position in the development of service trade; (4) Vigorously develop human capital, increase investment in universities, and cultivate more knowledge-based and technical talents.