统计与数据科学学院知识库

  随着数字中国和《中国制造2025》的深化，我国产业数字化已取得跨越式进展，为制造业高质量发展提供了机会窗口，为制造业转型升级创造出更广阔的市场，引领制造业创新加速。而长江经济带，横贯东中西，辐射南北，实体产业呈现聚集性分布，拥有雄厚的经济基础和发挥优势，是中国综合竞争力最强、经济发达水平最高的经济带，引领中国的制造业高质量发展。基于此，研究长江经济带110个地级市产业数字化对制造业升级的赋能效应具有战略意义和实践价值。

  首先，以梳理产业数字化与制造业升级的相关文献为基石，深入剖析产业数字化赋能制造业升级的理论机理。同时，一方面从规模、效率、创新和能环四个维度构建长江经济带制造业升级综合评价指标体系，另一方面从农业数字化、工业数字化、金融数字化及电子商务四个维度构建产业数字化的综合评价指标体系，并运用熵权法对2011-2020年长江经济带110个地级市的数据进行测度，最后进行统计分析。

  其次，立足于长江经济带2011-2020年110个地级市的面板数据，以面板双固定效应模型作为基准点，分析产业数字化对制造业升级的直接效应。同时，不仅使用替换变量、删除直辖市以及删除省会城市等方法进行稳健性检验，还使用系统GMM估计与工具变量法两种方法解决模型的内生性问题，进一步验证产业数字化对长江经济带制造业升级的显著正向影响。

  再次，以人力资本和技术创新作为中间媒介，依托于中介效应模型进行传导机制检验。剖析发现：产业数字化具有显著的技术创新效应和人力资本效应，通过人力资本和技术创新来降本、提质、增效，是托底长江经济带制造业升级的重要法宝。

  最后，从以下两方面进行异质性分析：一、构建面板门槛回归模型，以人力资本、技术创新能力、互联网水平三个变量作为门槛条件，进行分区制讨论，发现人力资本、技术创新、互联网水平均是长江经济带产业数字化升级效应的实现条件，并呈现出“边际递增”的非线性特征；二、按照地理位置和经济发展水平将长江经济带城市划分为多个子样本进一步分析。研究发现，无论不同发展水平还是不同地区来看，产业数字化对长江经济带制造业升级均具有差异化影响。

  基于以上研究分析，本文从合理推进数字化转型、鼓励创新驱动和人才驱动、因地制宜制定差异化战略等角度，对长江经济带产业数字化赋能制造业升级提出切实可行的政策建议。

    With the deepening of "digital China" and "Made in China 2025", China's industrial digitalization has made a breakthrough. It can provide a development opportunity for the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry, create a broader market for manufacturing upgrading, and lead the acceleration of manufacturing innovation. The Yangtze River Economic Belt, which runs through the east, west and north, radiates north and south. With clustered industries and a solid economic foundation and advantages, the Belt has the strongest comprehensive competitiveness and the highest level of economic development in China, driving the the overall development of China. Therefore, it is of strategic significance and practical value to study the empowering effect of industrial digitalization on manufacturing upgrading.

    First of all, after combing the related literature foundation of industrial digitalization and manufacturing upgrading, the theoretical mechanism of industrial digitalization enabling manufacturing upgrading is deeply analyzed. At the same time, on the one hand, the comprehensive evaluation index system of manufacturing upgrading is constructed from four aspects: scale, efficiency, innovation and energy environment; on the other hand, the comprehensive evaluation index system of industrial digitalization is constructed from four dimensions: agricultural digitalization, industrial digitalization, financial digitalization and E-commerce level. The improved entropy weight method is used to measure the data of 110 prefecture-level cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020, and finally statistical analysis is made.

    Secondly, in order to analyze the direct effect of industrial digitalization on manufacturing upgrading, we use the panel data of 110  cities in the Yangtze River Economic Belt from 2011 to 2020 to build the panel double fixed effect model. At the same time, the robustness of the model is tested by replacing variables, removing provincial capital cities and removing municipalities directly under the central government. The endogenous problem of the model is solved by using instrumental variable method and systematic GMM estimation. It further verifies that industrial digitalization has a significant positive impact on manufacturing upgrading.

    Thirdly, human capital and technological innovation are used as intermediate media, and the transmission mechanism is tested based on the intermediary effect. It is found that the digitalization of industry has significant technological innovation effect and human capital effect. Industrial digitalization reduces costs, improves quality and increases efficiency through human capital and technological innovation, which is an important magic weapon to upgrade the manufacturing industry.

    Finally, the heterogeneity analysis is carried out from the following two aspects: on the one hand, by establishing the panel threshold regression model, it is found that human capital, technological innovation and Internet level are all the conditions for realizing the digital upgrading effect of industries in the Yangtze River Economic Belt. It presents a nonlinear feature of "marginal increase"; On the other hand, on the basis of different economic development level and geographical locations, the cities are divided into several sub-samples for further analysis. It is found that, regardless of different development levels or different regions, industrial digitalization has a differentiated impact on the upgrading of manufacturing industry in the Yangtze River Economic Belt.

    Therefore, this paper puts forward practical policy suggestions for upgrading the digital empowerment manufacturing industry from the perspectives of reasonably promoting digital transformation, encouraging innovation-driven and talent-driven, and formulating differentiation strategies according to local conditions.