统计与数据科学学院知识库

构建以国内大循环为主体，国内国际双循环相互促进的新发展格局，是中国 基于国内经济形势和国际发展态势作出的重要科学判断和重大战略抉择。双循环 新发展格局要求国内与国际各自形成一个小循环的同时，两者之间也必须形成一 个大循环，小循环保障大循环的运行，大循环推动小循环的发展，两者共同构成 双循环，促进经济增长。中国发展格局的确定是由国内经济条件和国际经济环境 共同决定的，是中国寻求实现工业化过程中作出的战略选择。基于这一背景，本 文分别将双循环整体发展水平、国内循环发展水平、国际循环发展水平对经济增 长的作用进行研究，并进一步对其空间效应进行分析。本文在试图对经济发展过 程中的不均衡问题提出政策建议，助力各区域经济实现协调发展。 双循环新发展格局概念于 2020 年提出，但其经济内涵所指代的经济形态早 已存在。因此，本文借鉴张帅的多地区-多部门贸易模型，利用 2007 年、2012 年、2017 年投入产出表，从省际贸易角度出发，计算以国内贸易衡量的“国内 循环”发展水平和以国际贸易衡量的“国际循环”发展水平，观察省际国内国际 贸易视角下的贸易循环水平及其经济增长效应的时空特征。再结合基于省际贸易 视角而来的贸易循环水平与现实经济背景下双循环的其他影响因素，更加科学全 面的构建双循环发展水平的指标体系，测算 2017-2020 年的双循环发展水平。进 一步，运用空间计量方法，研究双循环发展水平对经济增长的作用，对双循环背 景下经济增长协调性进行全国层面和地区层面上的实证分析，研究双循环背景下 经济增长的空间特征，为我国各区域经济的协调发展提出建议。 研究发现：第一，双循环整体、国内循环与国际循环发展水平均具有空间相 关性，伴随明显的空间聚集性。第二，加大双循环整体水平的发展，在全国层面 上，经济可以得到良好增长，其中东部地区和西部地区更受益于双循环整体的发 展。第三，国内循环的发展更有助于西部不发达地区的经济增长，而东部地区极 少受益于国内循环的发展，因此国内循环的发展对促进缩小地区间经济发展不平 衡起到重要作用。第四，东部地区更加受益于国际循环的发展，而国际循环的发 展不能有效促进中西部不发达地区的经济增长，因此国际循环的发展会造成地区 间经济发展差距加大，不利于经济的协调发展。

Building a new development pattern with the domestic big cycle as the main body and the domestic and international double cycles promoting each other is an important scientific judgment and strategic choice made by China based on the domestic economic situation and international development trend. The new development pattern of dual cycle requires that both domestic and international sides form a small cycle, while a large cycle must also be formed between them. The small cycle ensures the operation of the large cycle, while the large cycle promotes the development of the small cycle. Both of them jointly constitute a dual cycle and promote economic growth. The determination of China's development pattern is determined jointly by domestic and international economic conditions, and is a strategic choice made by China in the process of seeking to achieve industrialization based on domestic development needs and changes in the international situation. Based on this background, this paper studies the effects of dual cycle integration, domestic cycle, and international cycle on economic growth, and further analyzes their spatial effects. This article attempts to provide policy recommendations on the imbalance in the process of economic development, helping to achieve coordinated economic development, which has certain theoretical and practical significance. The concept of dual cycle new development pattern was proposed in 2020, but its economic connotation refers to an economic form that already exists. Therefore, this article uses Zhang Shuai's multi region and multi sector trade model for reference, using the 2007, 2012, and 2017 input-output tables, and starting from the perspective of inter provincial trade, calculates the "domestic cycle" measured by domestic trade and the "international cycle" measured by international trade, observing the spatial and temporal characteristics of the cycle level and its economic growth effects from the perspective of inter provincial domestic and international trade. Combining the circular level of domestic trade based on the perspective of inter provincial trade with other influencing factors of the dual cycle in the real economic context, a more scientific and comprehensive measurement system of the dual cycle development level is constructed to calculate the dual cycle development level for 2017-2020. Further, using spatial econometric methods, this paper conducts empirical analysis on the coordination of economic growth in the context of dual cycles at the national and regional levels, studies the spatial characteristics of economic development in the context of dual cycles, and puts forward suggestions for the coordinated development of regional economies in China. The research findings are as follows: First, the overall, domestic, and international development levels of the dual cycle have spatial correlations, accompanied by significant spatial aggregation. Second, increase the overall level of development of the dual cycle, and at the national level, the economy can achieve good growth. The eastern and western regions have benefited more from the development of a dual cycle. Thirdly, the development of domestic recycling is more conducive to the economic growth of the underdeveloped regions in the west, while the eastern regions rarely benefit from domestic recycling. Therefore, the development of domestic recycling plays an important role in promoting and reducing the imbalance in economic development between regions. Fourth, the eastern region is more benefiting from the development of the international cycle, which cannot effectively promote economic growth in the underdeveloped regions of the central and western regions. Therefore, the development of the international cycle will lead to a widening gap in economic development between regions, which is not conducive to coordinated economic development.