统计与数据科学学院知识库

近年来，随着互联网、大数据等技术加速创新，数字经济在国民经济中的作用以及重要性日益增强，快速成为了当今最为广泛、最具活力和创新力的经济形态。本文通过界定、分离与合并2007年、2012年和2017年中国30个省份投入产出表各部门数字化和非数字化部分，编制中国数字经济产业投入产出表，运用投入产出分析方法量化分析中国省域数字产业化和产业数字化发展的产业关联特征。以数字产业化和产业数字化分类为基础，研究中国省域数字产业化部门和产业数字化部门在新时代国民经济发展中的地位，以及与最终需求和最初投入多维度关联的数量特征和数量规律。为把握数字经济产业融合特征提供新的理论体系和研究思路，对构建中国现代化经济体系和推动实现中国经济社会高质量发展具有重要的现实意义。

研究发现：各地区数字经济产业增加值规模呈现明显递增发展趋势，从时间维度上东部沿海地区数字产业率先发展，并且对中西部省份呈强烈的辐射扩散影响。东部地区数字产业化和产业数字化部门对国民经济均有显著的拉动和推动作用，中部地区产业数字化部门是国民经济的龙头产业，而西部地区数字产业化部门对国民经济的拉动作用较小；大多数省份数字产业化和产业数字化部门影响力系数及感应度系数的时间趋势均呈交叉关系。中国数字经济产业属于“投资依赖型”产业；产业受出口需求影响较大的地区主要集中在沿海经济发达地区；消费对数字产业化部门的诱发效应及依赖程度整体上大于产业数字化部门，但产业数字化部门受消费的影响程度在不断上升。数字经济发展对大部分地区生产性服务业有显著的就业拉动效应，对东部和中部地区制造业税收贡献效应最为显著，产业数字化部门对各产业的就业拉动效应和税收贡献效应大于数字产业化。

本文可能的边际贡献为：以数字产业化和产业数字化分类为基础，构建省域数字经济发展的投入产出分析框架；系统量化了省域数字经济产业规模，从而揭示数字产业化、产业数字化发展在国民经济发展中的数量特征和数量规律。

In recent years, with the accelerated innovation of the Internet, big data and other technologies, the digital economy has become increasingly important and useful in the national economy, and is fast becoming the most widespread, dynamic and innovative economic form today. This paper compiles China's digital industry input-output tables by defining, separating and merging the digital and non-digital parts of each sector of the input-output tables of 30 Chinese provinces in 2007, 2012 and 2017, and uses input-output analysis to quantify the industrial correlation effects of digital industrialization and industrial digitalization development in Chinese provinces. Based on the classification of digital industrialization and industrial digitization, we study the status of digital industrialization sectors and industrial digitization sectors in China's provincial areas in the development of national economy in the new era, as well as the quantitative characteristics and quantitative laws associated with the multi-dimensionality of final demand and initial inputs. It provides a new theoretical system and research ideas for grasping the characteristics of digital industrial integration, which is of great practical significance for building China's modernized economic system and promoting the realization of China's high-quality economic and social development.

The study found that: the development trend of digital economy industry value-added scale in each region has increased significantly, and the digital industry in the eastern coastal provinces has taken the lead in development and continuously showed strong radiation diffusion influence to the central and western provinces. The digital industrialization and digital industry sectors in the eastern region have significant pulling and driving effects on the national economy, while the digital industry sector in the central region is the leading industry in the national economy, and the digital industrialization sector in the western region has a smaller pulling effect on the national economy; the time trends of the influence coefficients and inductance coefficients of the digital industrialization and digital industry sectors in most provinces show a cross-correlation. The digital industry in China is an "investment-dependent" industry; the regions where the digital economy is influenced by export demand are mainly concentrated in the developed coastal economic regions; the induced effect and dependence of consumption on the digital industrialization sector is generally greater than that of the industrial digitalization sector, but the degree of influence of the industrial digitalization sector on consumption is increasing. The development of digital economy has significant employment-pulling effect on productive service industries in most regions, and the most significant tax contribution effect on manufacturing industries in eastern and central regions; the employment-pulling effect and tax contribution effect of industrial digitization on each industry is greater than that of digital industrialization.

The possible marginal contributions of this paper are: to construct the input-output analysis framework of provincial digital economy development based on the classification of digital industrialization and industrial digitization; to measure the scale of provincial digital economy industries, and to reveal the quantitative characteristics and quantitative laws of the associated effects of digital industrialization and industrial digitization development in the national economy in a systematic and objective way.