统计与数据科学学院知识库

西北地区是全面实施乡村振兴战略的重点区域之一，做好西北地区乡村振兴这篇大文章是切实推进中国式现代化、实现全体人民共同富裕的必要战略举措。因此，紧扣时代发展主题，坚持问题导向，测度西北地区乡村振兴水平及驱动因素，对于该地区推动“三农”工作重心平稳过渡、构建新时代西部大开发新格局、实现农业农村高质量发展等具有重要现实意义。

首先，在整合国内外研究成果基础上，梳理了马克思和恩格斯农村发展与城乡融合发展理论、农业农村现代化理论，总结了历代领导人农村发展思想和发达国家乡村发展经验，回顾和分析了西北地区乡村发展历程与现状。其次，从产业兴旺等6个维度设立目标层、准则层、21个一级指标以及73个二级指标构成了西北地区乡村振兴水平评价指标体系，运用逐层纵横向拉开档次法和“熵值”非线性规划法确定各级指标权重与时间权重w_k，构建基于二次赋权的TOWA-GA混合算子模型，对西北地区2010-2021年乡村振兴水平进行动态综合评价。然后，将机器学习方法应用到乡村振兴发展的驱动因素研究中。以乡村振兴水平评价值为响应变量，选取区域经济发展水平等13个指标作为预测因子，引入基于集成学习的增强回归树模型，从时间异质角度测度西北地区乡村振兴水平的驱动因素及相对影响度。实证研究结果表明：

（1）准则层内6个子系统发展不均衡，各省区排名参差不齐，各评价值存在差距。产业兴旺、生活富裕子系统整体呈稳步上升趋势；生态宜居、乡风文明子系统均呈现波动上升趋势，2019、2020年波动幅度较大；治理有效子系统波动幅度较大，整体情况逊色于其他子系统。（2）乡村振兴水平整体上呈显著上升态势，从综合排名看，宁夏(1.2540)>新疆(1.1604)>陕西(1.1220)>甘肃(0.9781)>青海(0.9281)，2016年前乡村振兴水平整体趋于稳定，尔后呈大幅度上升态势。（3）乡村振兴水平的驱动因素呈现时间异质性。2010-2015年，农业经济水平、农业固定资本存量、农村金融发展水平等是影响西北地区乡村振兴发展主要因素；2016-2021年，城乡收入差距、区域经济发展水平、农业经济水平、基础设施水平等因素更能驱动乡村振兴发展；2010-2021年，区域经济发展水平、产业结构高度化、粮食安全、农业经济水平位于驱动因素前四位。（4）不同驱动因素表现出不同的阈值效应、门槛特征与边际递减效应。区域经济发展水平、农业经济水平、粮食安全、农业固定资本存量、市场发展驱动呈显著正向促进作用，对乡村振兴水平的影响具有阈值效应，超过各自阈值后其影响逐渐趋于稳定；当产业结构高度化大于一定水平时起促进作用，具有门槛特征；城乡收入差距处于2.4~2.8区间时对乡村振兴起促进作用；大于2.8时起抑制作用。

最后，基于以上主要研究结论，从统筹推进农业现代化建设、加快培育农业农村发展新动能、乡村治理体系现代化和区域经济协调发展等方面提出对策建议。

Northwest China is one of the key areas push forward all-round rural vitalization.  To do a good job in the rural revitalization of Northwest China is a necessary strategic measure to effectively promote Chinese-style modernization and achieve common prosperity for all the people. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to closely follow the development theme of The Times and adhere to the problem-oriented approach to measure the level and driving factors of rural revitalization in Northwest China for the smooth transition of the work focus of "agriculture, rural areas", the construction of a new pattern of large-scale western development in the new era, and the realization of high-quality development of agriculture and rural areas.

First of all, on the basis of integrating domestic and foreign research achievements, the thesis reviews Marx and Engels' theory of rural development, urban-rural integration development and agricultural and rural modernization, summarizes the rural development thoughts of past leaders and the rural development experience of developed countries, and reviews and analyzes the rural development process and current situation in Northwest China. Secondly, the evaluation index system of rural revitalization level in Northwest China is constituted by setting up target layer, criterion layer, 21 first-level indicators and 73 second-level indicators from six dimensions such as industrial prosperity. The weight and time weight w_kof all levels of indicators are determined by using the layer-by-layer vertical and horizontal splitting method and "entropy" nonlinear programming method. A TOWA-GA hybrid operator model based on quadratic weighting was constructed to conduct a dynamic and comprehensive evaluation of the rural revitalization level in Northwest China from 2010 to 2021. Then, the machine learning method is applied to the research on the driving factors of rural revitalization. Taking the evaluation value of rural revitalization level as the response variable, 13 indicators such as regional economic development level were selected as predictive factors, and the enhanced regression tree model based on integrated learning was introduced to measure the driving factors and relative impact of rural revitalization level in northwest China from the perspective of temporal heterogeneity. The empirical research results show that:

(1) The development of the six sub-systems within the criteria layer is not balanced, and the ranking of each province is uneven, and there is a gap in each evaluation value. The subsystem of prosperous industry and prosperous life shows a steady rising trend as a whole. The subsystems of ecological livable and rural civilization showed an increasing trend of fluctuation, with a large fluctuation range in 2019 and 2020. The effective subsystem of governance fluctuates greatly and the overall situation is inferior to other subsystems. (2) The level of rural revitalization on the whole showed a significant upward trend. The sequence from high to low is: Ningxia (1.2540), Xinjiang (1.1604), Shaanxi (1.1220), Gansu (0.9781), Qinghai (0.9281). The level of rural revitalization tended to be stable before 2016, and then showed a significant upward trend. (3) The driving factors of rural vitalization showed time heterogeneity. From 2010 to 2015, the level of agricultural economy, agricultural fixed capital stock and rural financial development were the main factors affecting the rural revitalization and development in Northwest China. From 2016 to 2021, the urban-rural income gap, the level of regional economic development, the level of agricultural economy, and the level of infrastructure are more likely to drive rural revitalization and development. From 2010 to 2021, regional economic development level, advanced industrial structure, food security and agricultural economic level were the top four driving factors. (4) Different driving factors show different threshold effect, threshold characteristics and diminishing marginal effect. The regional economic development level, agricultural economic level, food security, agricultural fixed capital stock and market development drive have a significant positive effect on the rural revitalization level, which has a threshold effect, and gradually stabilize after exceeding their respective thresholds. When the industrial structure is higher than a certain level, it plays a promoting role and has the threshold characteristics. When the income gap between urban and rural areas is 2.4~2.8, it can promote rural revitalization. When it is larger than 2.8, it has inhibitory effect.

Finally, based on the above main research conclusions, countermeasures and suggestions are put forward from the aspects of promoting agricultural modernization as a whole, accelerating the cultivation of new driving forces for agricultural and rural development, modernization of rural governance system and coordinated development of regional economy.