国际经济与贸易学院知识库

  新一代数字技术的高速发展，比如互联网、大数据、人工智能、物联网等，已经渗透至人类社会的各个方面，不仅改变了生产生活的方式，也为经济发展注入新动能。其中，制造业数字化对出口市场产生了深远的影响，可以说数字技术革命正在重塑全球贸易格局。在此背景下，探讨制造业数字化对我国制造业企业出口的影响，对于增强出口竞争优势和推动出口贸易优化具有十分重要的意义。

  本文研究的主要内容包括：首先，以传统贸易理论、新贸易理论、新新贸易理论以及产业生命周期理论为基础，探析制造业数字化影响企业出口的理论机制；其次，运用WIOD投入产出表测算出我国制造业各行业的数字化投入，并从企业出口概率、出口规模以及出口产品质量三个方面构建可以衡量企业出口表现的指标，运用计量模型进行多维度的分析；此外，将制度质量纳入模型分析中，以期从实证角度检验制度环境在制造业数字化的企业出口效应中产生的影响，并且在进一步分析中，对制造业数字化丰富出口产品种类和拓展市场范围的影响进行实证检验；最后，提出通过推动制造业数字化来促进企业出口，实现出口贸易高质量发展的政策建议。

  本文的研究结论有：第一，根据测算出的制造业数字化投入，发现我国制造业数字化投入高于其他国家，呈现逐年递增的趋势，并且来源于国内的数字化投入比重逐年增加，超过了来源于国外的数字化投入。第二，对制造业数字化影响企业出口的概率、规模以及产品质量进行多维度实证分析，研究发现：借助数字技术赋能以及数字化投入，制造业企业增强了企业出口的意愿，实现了企业出口产品量的扩张和质的提升，并且企业生产效率提高、交易成本下降以及出口产品创新是其关键路径。从异质性分析可以看出，制造业数字化对企业出口的促进效应会受到数字化投入来源、企业所有制类型、行业要素密集度、以及企业所在地区差异的影响。第三，将影响企业行为和决策的外部因素纳入分析过程，实证检验了制度质量在制造业数字化的出口效应中发挥的作用，证明良好的市场化水平和营商环境有助于提升企业出口表现。第四，在进一步分析中着重探讨了制造业数字化对企业出口产品种类和出口市场范围的影响。

The rapid development of new-generation digital technologies, such as the Internet, big data, artificial intelligence, and the Internet of Things, has had a significant impact on human society, changing the way of production and life and injecting new momentum into economic development. Among these technologies, the digitalization of the manufacturing industry has had a profound impact on the export market, reshaping the global trade pattern. Thus, this study aims to explore the impact of the digitalization of the manufacturing industry on the exports of Chinese manufacturing enterprises to enhance their competitive advantage and promote the optimization of export trade.

This paper employs traditional trade theory, new trade theory, new new trade theory, and industrial life cycle theory to explore the theoretical mechanism of the digitalization of the manufacturing industry on enterprise exports. It uses the WIOD input-output table to measure the digitalization input of each manufacturing industry in China and constructs three aspects: enterprise export probability, export scale, and export product quality. Additionally, the institutional quality is included in the model analysis to empirically test the influence of the institutional environment on the export effect of manufacturing digitalization. Moreover, the study empirically tests the influence of manufacturing digitalization in enriching export product categories and expanding market scope. Finally, policy recommendations are proposed to promote enterprise exports and achieve highquality development of export trade by promoting the digitization of the manufacturing industry.

The findings of this paper show that China's digitalization input in the manufacturing industry is higher than that of other countries, showing an increasing trend year by year. The proportion of digitalization input from domestic sources increases year by year, exceeding the digitalization input from foreign sources. Furthermore, with digital technology empowerment and digitalization input, manufacturing enterprises enhance their willingness to export and realize the expansion of the quantity and quality of their export products. The improvement of their production efficiency, reduction of transaction cost, and innovation of export products are the key paths. The study also reveals that the promotion effect of manufacturing digitalization on enterprise exports will be influenced by the source of digitalization inputs, the type of enterprise ownership, the factor intensity of the industry, and the differences in the regions where the enterprises are located. Additionally, the institutional quality plays a significant role in the export effect of manufacturing digitization, and a good level of marketization and business environment can help enhance firms' export performance. Finally, the study focuses on the effects of manufacturing digitalization on the types of products exported and the range of export markets of firms.