统计与数据科学学院知识库

  贵州省开通的第一条高速铁路——贵广高铁，给相对落后的贵州省带来了极大的机遇，改善了贵州交通山区多险阻、道路崎岖难行的状况，提高了区域可达性，促进要素跨区流动，重塑了贵州省县域的人口布局以及经济空间布局。过去的十年间，我国的大部分县域都处于人口缓慢流失的状态，愈加便捷的高铁所引发的“虹吸效应”是高质量发展所面临的问题。县域是乡村振兴和新型城镇化战略中的重要单元，能否以开通高铁作为一个转折契机，在更大范围内和更深的层次上发挥抓住高铁对人口及经济集聚的优势，摆脱区位上的劣势，是本文重点研究的问题。

  本文以贵广高铁为例，整理2009年-2020年的面板数据，尝试建立双重差分模型探究贵州省高铁效应。由于贵广高铁于2014年12月26日开通，将2015年作为时间节点，沿线的7个县域为实验组，与之相邻且未开通高铁的13个县域为控制组进行实证分析，主要从人口及经济集聚两个方面展开。研究得出以下主要结论：（1）对县域流动人口率回归结果表明：在没有添加任何控制变量的模型中，影响系数为正且在0.05的显著性水平下显著。将控制变量依次加入模型当中，高铁的影响系数为正，说明贵广高铁对沿线县域人口流入产生正向影响，非沿线县域人口向沿线县域集聚。（2）对县域GDP回归结果表明：将控制变量依次加入模型当中，高铁的影响系数显著为负，说明贵广高铁对沿线县域经济发展产生负效应，开通高铁的县域GDP 增长率小于未开通高铁的县域GDP 增长率。可能的原因在于贵广高铁连接了贵州省贵阳市与广东省广州市，打破了粤桂黔三省之间的交通运输瓶颈，使生产要素向经济发达的地区转移，这种落差会在短期内使得经济欠发达地区的资源流入发达地区从而产生了“虹吸效应”。（3）对双重差分模型进行平行趋势检验及安慰剂检验。更换计量方法建立合成双重差分模型、多期双重差分模型进行稳健性检验。对比分析三种模型估计结果，证明贵广高铁开通对人口流动具有显著的诱增效应，但对县域经济增长产生负效应。

The first high-speed railway opened in Guizhou Province, Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed Railway, has brought great opportunities to the relatively backward Guizhou Province. It has improved the mountainous area of Guizhou with many obstacles and rugged roads, improved regional accessibility, promoted the inter-regional flow of factors, and reshaped the population distribution and economic spatial distribution of counties in Guizhou Province. In the past decade, most of China's counties have been slowly losing population, and the "siphon effect" caused by increasingly convenient high-speed rail is a problem facing high-quality development. Counties are important units in the strategy of rural revitalization and new-type urbanization. Whether the opening of high-speed railway can be taken as a turning point to give full play to the advantages of high-speed railway in population and economic agglomeration in a wider range and at a deeper level, and get rid of the disadvantages in location, is the focus of this paper.

This paper takes Guizhuan-Guangzhou high-speed railway as an example, collates panel data from 2009 to 2020, and attempts to establish a differential model to explore the effect of high-speed railway in Guizhou Province. Since the Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway was opened on December 26, 2014, 2015 was taken as the time node, and 7 counties along the line were taken as the experimental group, while 13 counties adjacent to it without high-speed railway were taken as the control group. The empirical analysis was mainly carried out from two aspects of population and economic agglomeration. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) The regression results of the county floating population rate show that in the model without any control variable, the influence coefficient is positive and significant at the significance level of 0.05. When the control variables are added into the model successively, the influence coefficient of high-speed railway is positive, which indicates that the Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway has a positive impact on the population inflow in counties along the line, while the population in non-counties along the line gathers in counties along the line. (2) The regression results of county GDP show that: when the control variables are added into the model successively, the influence coefficient of high-speed rail is significantly negative, indicating that the Guizhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail has a negative effect on the economic development of counties along the line, and the GDP growth rate of counties with high-speed rail service is lower than that of counties without high-speed rail service. The possible reason lies in the fact that the Guy-Guangzhou high-speed railway connects Guiyang City of Guizhou Province and Guangzhou City of Guangdong Province, breaking the transportation bottleneck between Guangdong, Guangxi and Guizhou provinces and transferring production factors to the economically developed areas. This gap will cause the resources from the economically underdeveloped areas to flow into the developed areas in a short period of time, resulting in a "Siphon Effect". (3) Parallel trend test and placebo test were conducted for the difference-difference model. A synthetic differential model and a multiphase differential model are established to test robustness. The results of the three models are compared and analyzed, and it is proved that the opening of Guizhou-Guangzhou high-speed railway has a significant inducement and enhancement effect on population flow, but has a negative effect on county economic development.