金融学院知识库

    当前我国经济已进入高质量发展阶段，正处于转变粗放发展模式、优化产业经济结构的攻关时期。但传统金融由于信息不对称等问题而导致的金融排斥现象时有发生，这使得产业结构转型升级缺乏足够的金融支持，一些社会群体无法获得应有的金融服务，其中以小微企业为主的第三产业群体尤为明显。因此，如何打破金融困局，疏通对产业发展的金融支持路径就显得极为迫切。而随着互联网等数字化科技的发展，数字普惠金融应运而生，相较于传统金融，其兼具数字化和普惠性的特征，能够较好地克服传统金融存在已久的弊端，极大程度提高金融服务的可得性与便利性，助力产业发展的同时推动产业结构升级。
    本文基于2011-2020年北京大学数字普惠金融指数，从不同维度实证探究了数字普惠金融对产业结构的影响。首先，利用Moran指数，初步探究了数字普惠金融与产业结构的空间分布特征；其次，基于固定效应模型，验证了数字普惠金融及子维度对产业结构与三大产业的影响；再次，借助中介效应与面板门槛模型，探究了教育发展、政府支出和互联网建设的中介作用并检验了数字普惠金融对产业结构升级的非线性影响；最后，通过剔除特殊样本、替换被解释变量、缩短样本周期和构建工具变量等方式，对全文的核心结论进行了稳健性检验。
    研究结果表明，我国数字普惠金融与产业结构均存在显著的空间正相关性且相关程度逐年加深；数字普惠金融及子维度对产业结构升级均存在显著的正向影响，进一步细分，数字普惠金融会抑制第一产业的发展而推动第二、三产业的进步，而子维度总体上亦表现出对第一产业的抑制与第二、三产业的推动，体现出数字普惠金融及子维度对产业结构升级和三大产业影响的一致性；教育发展、政府支出和互联网建设在数字普惠金融与产业结构升级之间起到了部分中介效果，中介效应占比分别为10.4%、9.4%、27.9%；在全国范围与中部地区，数字普惠金融对产业结构升级的影响不存在门槛效应，但东部与西部地区存在，前者存在边际递减效应，后者则经历了由不显著向显著的转变。结合上述结论，提出要结合不同区域实际情况促进产业结构转型升级、慎重对待数字普惠金融对三大产业的影响差异、疏通数字普惠金融对产业结构升级的作用路径和重新焕发传统动能对产业结构升级的正向作用的政策建议。

关键词：数字普惠金融 产业结构升级 空间分布 中介效应 工具变量

    At present, our economy has entered the high-quality development stage, and it is in the period of transformation of extensive development mode and optimization of industrial economic structure. However, the phenomenon of financial exclusion caused by information asymmetry and other problems in traditional finance occurs from time to time, which makes the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure lack sufficient financial support, and some social groups cannot obtain due financial services, especially the tertiary industry groups dominated by small and micro enterprises. Therefore, how to break the financial dilemma and dredge the path of financial support for industrial development is extremely urgent. With the development of Internet and other digital technologies, digital inclusive finance emerges at the historic moment. Compared with traditional finance, digital inclusive finance has the characteristics of both digitalization and inclusive, which can better overcome the long-standing disadvantages of traditional finance, greatly improve the availability and convenience of financial services, promote industrial development and promote the upgrading of industrial structure.
    Based on the Peking University Digital Inclusion Finance Index from 2011 to 2020, this paper empirically explores the impact of digital inclusion finance on industrial structure from different dimensions. Firstly, Moran index is used to explore the spatial distribution characteristics of digital inclusive finance and industrial structure. Secondly, based on the fixed effect model, the influence of digital financial inclusion and its sub-dimensions on the industrial structure and the three industries is verified. Thirdly, with the help of mediating effect and panel threshold model, the mediating role of education development, government expenditure and Internet construction is explored and the non-linear influence of digital inclusive finance on industrial structure upgrading is tested. Finally, by eliminating special samples, replacing explained variables, shortening sample period and constructing instrumental variables, the robustness of the core conclusions of the paper is tested.
    The results show that there is a significant spatial positive correlation between digital inclusive finance and industrial structure, and the correlation degree is deepening year by year. Digital inclusive finance and its sub-dimension have significant positive impact on the upgrading of industrial structure. Further subdivision shows that digital inclusive finance will inhibit the development of the primary industry and promote the progress of the secondary and tertiary industries, while the sub-dimension also shows the inhibition of the primary industry and the promotion of the secondary and tertiary industries on the whole. Reflects the consistency of the impact of digital inclusive finance and its sub-dimensions on the industrial structure and the three industries; Education development, government expenditure and Internet construction play a partial intermediary effect between digital inclusive finance and industrial structure upgrading, accounting for 10.4%, 9.4% and 27.9%, respectively. In China and central China, the influence of digital inclusive finance on industrial structure upgrading does not have threshold effect, but it does exist in eastern and western China. The former has diminishing marginal effect, while the latter experiences a transition from insignificant to significant. Based on the above conclusions, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions to promote the transformation and upgrading of industrial structure based on the actual situation of different regions, carefully treat the difference of influence of digital inclusive finance on the three industries, clear the action path of digital inclusive finance on industrial structure upgrading and reinvigorate the positive role of traditional driving forces on industrial structure upgrading.
Keywords：Digital inclusive finance；Industrial structure upgrading；Spatial distribution；Intermediary effect；Instrumental variable