统计与数据科学学院知识库

   随着经济的不断发展，中国能源消耗量与日俱增，能源压力激增，能源贫困等问题不断凸显，引发了国内乃至全球的舆论热议，当前中国的能源消耗量为世界第一，各国都在密切关注未来中国的能源消费状况，提能效、降能耗迫在眉睫。

   为实现经济高速发展到经济高质量发展的顺利转变，中国政府发布了一系列节能政策，并制定阶段性计划。由于中国地域面积广阔，省份众多，且发展状况各异，因此为保障国家未来节能政策的实施以及阶段性目标的完成，必须明确各省能耗情况，结合各省的能耗贡献力及影响力，合理分配节能责任及目标。本文使用多区域投入产出模型构建中国省间隐含能流通网络，明确了省与省之间隐含在商品及服务贸易之下的能源流动，由此定位那些隐含能消耗量、转移量较大的省份，从而科学划分节能责任；再利用生态网络模型，对中国省间隐含能流通网络进行上升性和环境元分析，以此发掘流通网络的整体特征以及节点省份之间的生态关系，助力省间隐含能健康格局的协调发展；最后利用QAP回归模型建立中国省间隐含能流通网络的影响因素模型，计算各因素对流通网络的影响程度，以此确定节能计划实施的方向。主要研究结论如下：

  （1）从隐含能消耗量变化中可看出，自2015年至2017年，中国省际隐含能的消耗重心逐渐向北部沿海地区转移，长三角与京津冀地区的隐含能消耗量较高；东北地区中除却低效粗放的黑龙江地区，其余两省隐含能大幅下降；沿海地区的福建、海南受广东、浙江贸易挤压致使隐含能消耗量一直较低；西北、西南地区的隐含能消耗水平较低，邻近的湖南、湖北等中部省份则吸收了较多的隐含能。

  （2）从隐含能进出口值变化中可看出，至2017年，京津冀地区的隐含能流动状态较为一致，隐含能净流出值下降明显；黑龙江、重庆、广西、云南、广东、海南、河南、陕西、江苏、浙江、湖南、湖北与江西隐含能一直是净流出状态，安徽、上海、福建、山西、内蒙古、四川、贵州、吉林、辽宁、西北地区则偏向于隐含能流入；长江中游地区省份的隐含能流出量与流入量都在下降。

  （3）从隐含能流转重心来看，长江中游与黄河中游地区的省份在国内隐含能贸易中占据了较多份额，隐含能流动数值较高；西北地区的隐含能总体流动数值及国内占比都偏低；京津冀地区、西南地区的隐含能流动数值及国内占比都略有下降。浙江、广东、江苏的隐含能流出值一直居于前列，福建、甘肃、海南、青海和宁夏一直处于隐含能流出值中省份排名低位。内蒙古、山西、河北和辽宁等能源储备量丰富但经济发展偏中游省份的隐含能流出值较高，宁夏、青海和海南等地的隐含能流出、流入值都偏低。

  （4）在上升性分析中，2017年的系统平均交互信息值AMI要高于2015年，省间贸易隐含能的总流通量TST在下降，系统多样性指数H_R以及系统抵抗外界干扰变化的能力S都略有上升趋势，整体看来系统的信息交互限制和组织能力变高，结构约束不断被强化，隐含能在省间流通会更有效率，系统经历变化的能力上升。系统上升性A和发展能力C都在增加，系统恢复弹力R则出现下降趋势，表明外界环境对于系统的干扰力度减小。2015年和2017年的α值相对过高，整体网络偏向于高效率强脆弱的不可持续状态。

  （5）在环境元分析中，从通量分析来看，流通系统的通量重心偏于江苏、广东、河南、河北以及山东；甘肃、宁夏、青海和海南四个省份处于系统边缘，通量占比都在0.5%以下；从效用分析来看，2015年中国省间隐含能流通系统中省间互惠与竞争关系占比较少，2017年系统中省间生态关系仅剩下控制与被控制关系。

  （6）针对中国省间隐含能流通网络建立QAP回归模型可知，经济发展水平差异、人口规模差异、能源结构差异都会对中国省间隐含能流通网络产生正向影响；地理距离会对中国省间隐含能流通网络产生负向影响。

      With the continuous development of economy, the energy consumption of China and the world is increasing, which makes the energy pressure of China and the world increase sharply, and energy poverty and other issues become increasingly prominent, which has triggered heated debate at home and abroad. At present, China's energy consumption is the first in the world, and its proportion in the world is also the first. All countries are paying close attention to China's energy consumption in the future, and it is urgent to improve energy efficiency and reduce energy consumption.

    In order to realize the smooth transition from rapid economic development to high-quality economic development, the Chinese government has issued a series of energy-saving policies and formulated a phased plan. Due to China's vast geographical area, numerous provinces and different development conditions, in order to ensure the implementation of the national energy conservation policy in the future and the completion of the phased objectives, it is necessary to clarify the energy consumption situation of each province, and rationally allocate the energy conservation responsibilities and objectives in combination with the energy consumption contribution and influence of each province. This paper uses the multi region input-output model to build China's inter provincial embodied energy circulation network, which clarifies the energy flow embodied in the trade of goods and services between provinces, thus positioning those provinces with large embodied energy consumption and transfer, so as to scientifically divide energy conservation responsibilities; Then use the ecological network model to analyze the rising and environmental meta analysis of China's inter provincial latent energy circulation network, so as to explore the overall characteristics of the circulation network and the ecological relationship between node provinces, and help the coordinated development of the healthy pattern of inter provincial latent energy; Finally, the QAP（Quadratic Assignment Procedure）regression model is used to establish the influencing factors model of China's inter provincial latent energy circulation network, calculate the influence degree of each factor on the circulation network, and determine the direction of energy conservation plan implementation. The main research conclusions are as follows:

      (1) It can be seen from the change of embodied energy consumption that from 2015 to 2017, the consumption center of China's inter provincial embodied energy gradually shifted to the northern coastal areas, and the embodied energy consumption in the Yangtze River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was relatively high; In Northeast China, except for the inefficient and extensive Heilongjiang region, the potential energy of the other two provinces decreased significantly; In coastal areas, Fujian and Hainan have been squeezed by Guangdong and Zhejiang trade, resulting in low consumption of trade embodied energy; The consumption level of embodied energy in the northwest and southwest regions is low, while the neighboring provinces in central China, such as Hunan and Hubei, have absorbed more embodied energy in trade.

      (2) It can be seen from the changes in the import and export value of embodied energy that the flow of embodied energy in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region was relatively consistent by 2017, and the net outflow value of embodied energy decreased significantly; The embodied energy of Heilongjiang, Chongqing, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guangdong, Hainan, Henan, Shaanxi, Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Hunan, Hubei and Jiangxi has always been in the state of net outflow, while the embodied energy of Anhui, Shanghai, Fujian, Shanxi, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan, Guizhou, Jilin, Liaoning and Northwest China tends to flow in; The embodied energy outflow and inflow of provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River are declining.

      (3) From the perspective of the center of embodied energy transfer, the provinces in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River and the Yellow River occupy a large share in the interaction of embodied energy in domestic trade, and the value of embodied energy flow is high; The total flow value and proportion of latent energy in northwest China are low; The value and proportion of latent energy flow in Beijing Tianjin Hebei region and the southwest region decreased slightly. The embodied energy outflow value of Zhejiang, Guangdong and Jiangsu has always been in the forefront, while Fujian, Gansu, Hainan, Qinghai and Ningxia have always been in the low position among the provinces in the embodied energy outflow value. Inner Mongolia, Shanxi, Hebei, Liaoning and other provinces with rich energy reserves but economic development in the middle reaches rank higher, while Ningxia, Qinghai, Hainan and other places have low potential energy inflow and outflow values.

      (4) In the ascending analysis, the system's Average Mutual Information (AMI) in 2017 is higher than that in 2015, the Total System Throughput (TST) of the inter-provincial trade embodied energy is declining, the system diversity (H_R) and the system's ability to resist external interference changes are both slightly increasing, indicating that the system's information interaction restrictions and organizational capacity are becoming higher, the structural constraints are constantly strengthened, the embodied energy will be more efficient in the inter-provincial circulation, and the system's ability to experience changes is increasing. The Assortativity（A）and Capacity for Development of the system（C）are increasing, while the Resilience of the system（R）is decreasing, indicating that the interference of the external environment on the system is decreasing. 2015 and 2017 α Relatively high, the overall network is inclined to an unsustainable state of high efficiency, strong vulnerability.

      (5) In the environmental meta-analysis, from the perspective of flux analysis, the center of flux in the circulation system is biased towards Jiangsu, Guangdong, Henan, Hebei and Shandong; Gansu, Ningxia, Qinghai and Hainan are at the edge of the system, with the flux accounting for less than 0.5%; From the perspective of utility analysis, the inter-provincial reciprocity and competition relationship in China's inter-provincial embodied energy circulation system accounted for a relatively small proportion in 2015. In 2017, the inter-provincial ecological relationship in the system only remained the control and controlled relationship.

      (6) According to the QAP regression model established for the inter-provincial embodied energy circulation network in China, the differences in economic development level, population size and energy structure will have a positive impact on the inter-provincial embodied energy circulation network in China; Geographic distance will have a negative impact on the embodied energy circulation network between provinces in China.